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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:12 pm to Tyga Woods
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:12 pm to Tyga Woods
Don't forget pj making up shite like his daughter running away, him having cancer, his trailer burning down, being a former pornstar, and claiming he isn't the door greeter at Denham Walmart.
3
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:19 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
his trailer burning down
That really happened.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:22 pm to rds dc
I know, edgewood trailer park will never be the same
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:46 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
I know, edgewood trailer park will never be the sam
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:49 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
and claiming he isn't the door greeter at Denham Walmart
Posted on 8/31/17 at 10:53 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
Denham Walmart.
Was Walker out of applications or do they not even have a Walmart?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:06 pm to Duke
quote:
Differences in current GFS run and the last euro run at the same time. Not a huge difference, but will yield a big difference in final location.
Good example of why the models decrease in accuracy as time goes on. A mistake carries through the next step and that resulting mistake goes into the next step and so on.
Got the image, and gist of the post from RL3AO at storm2k.
So the questions are how do we get there? Which model is more likely to be right?
Notice the spin with some convection to the NW of Irma. That is a tricky ULL that is associated with a potential vorticity streamer that is leftover after PTC10 (the original Irma) and the cyclone before it set off some wave breaking.
The ULL is a +PV anomaly and convection can destroy these anomalies. So the convection associated with it is one of the keys. The ULL steepens lapse rates and encourages convection. The convection releases latent heat that can convert the +PV to -PV (essentially, destroy the ULL and replace it with high pressure). Moving forward, to just before the images in in the quote, and notice that the reflection of the ULL is still there north of the Islands in the GFS 500mb anomaly map but is basically gone on the Euro.
So basically, the Euro is replacing the ULL with high pressure faster than the GFS. This keeps Irma farther to the SW and isn't allowing it to escape to the NW. Now, this is totally ignoring the downstream long wave trough that is setting up across the East Coast. The Euro cuts off the base and retrogrades it allowing the ridge to continue to build over the top. The GFS doesn't retrograde the cutoff and keeps the ridge at bay, protecting the SE and Gulf.
There is no way to predict the movement of the long range trough but in the short term we might have some clues. Watch the convection associated with that ULL. There is some research, IIRC from 2013, that showed that the Euro & EPS have a tendency to breakdown +PV anomalies too fast across the N. Atlantic causing a SW bias from stronger ridges. Only problem, I don't know if that issue has been corrected in the updates since then.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:07 pm to DoUrden
That's a good WM. The greeter there used to have fresh coffee for the customers. It's like a dream barista job.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:08 pm to rds dc
Engrish please?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:09 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
FYI I have finally found out which pic/gif triggers Malwarebytes and it's this one. It's not harmful and don't stop, I just knew over the last week something was doing it.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
So basically, the Euro is replacing the ULL with high pressure faster than the GFS. This keeps Irma farther to the SW and isn't allowing it to escape to the NW. Now, this is totally ignoring the downstream long wave trough that is setting up across the East Coast. The Euro cuts off the base and retrogrades it allowing the ridge to continue to build over the top. The GFS doesn't retrograde the cutoff and keeps the ridge at bay, protecting the SE and Gulf.
There is no way to predict the movement of the long range trough but in the short term we might have some clues. Watch the convection associated with that ULL. There is some research, IIRC from 2013, that showed that the Euro & EPS have a tendency to breakdown +PV anomalies too fast across the N. Atlantic causing a SW bias from stronger ridges. Only problem, I don't know if that issue has been corrected in the updates since then.
Thanks for all the work keeping us updated and breaking it down.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:14 pm to Hogwarts
quote:
Engrish please?
Watch the thunderstorms to the NW of Irma, if they thunderstorm a lot, the Euro might be more right, until it changes at 00z.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:21 pm to rds dc
00zGFS currently running... still pulling the recurve up the east coast it looks like
12z was landfall in Maine/Nova Scotia
18z had landfall in Rhode Island/Connecticut
00z run... let's find out shall we
12z was landfall in Maine/Nova Scotia
18z had landfall in Rhode Island/Connecticut
00z run... let's find out shall we
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:27 pm to rt3
quote:
00zGFS currently running... still pulling the recurve up the east coast it looks like
12z was landfall in Maine/Nova Scotia
18z had landfall in Rhode Island/Connecticut
00z run... let's find out shall we
Here is 31 18z GFS vs 01 00z GFS vs 31 Euro
Slowly trending towards the Euro? Another Big question is the evolution of the trough over the US beyond D5.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:30 pm to rds dc
good news is it seems to want to keep pulling that peak intensity down
12z it got to 898mb
18z 904mb
00z seems to cap off at 910mb
ETA: thought the run was starting to weaken it... but it just went down to 909mb
12z it got to 898mb
18z 904mb
00z seems to cap off at 910mb
ETA: thought the run was starting to weaken it... but it just went down to 909mb
This post was edited on 8/31/17 at 11:33 pm
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:32 pm to rt3
Should I actually be worried yet or should I wait and see
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:33 pm to LSUdude247
quote:
Should I actually be worried yet or should I wait and see
wait & see
give it like 5 more days... just keep an eye on it
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:34 pm to rt3
what isn't good news... potential Jose on a straight path into the Caribbean now... no recurve
This post was edited on 8/31/17 at 11:35 pm
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:37 pm to rt3
rds am I seeing things or is the GFS's projected landfall getting further south again?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 11:41 pm to rt3
looks like DC is in the bulls eye now
ETA: yep... mark's on North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland in this run
ETA: yep... mark's on North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland in this run
This post was edited on 8/31/17 at 11:45 pm
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