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3
Posted on 9/1/17 at 12:57 pm to rds dc
HWRF did well with Harvey up until landfall and it has Irma just clipping the Islands. That would be on the SW edge of the 12z GEFS cluster.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:00 pm to rds dc
So if I lived on the coast of NC should I be watching this?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:01 pm to cajunangelle
Yeah, I'd be keeping a close eye on it.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:03 pm to Duke
why is the Euro constantly starting the strength run so low... last 2 runs I've noticed 00 hour & 24 hour have the storm's strength at 1010mb+ and obviously that's not true
ETA: I think I'm just misreading the labeling of the particular map I'm looking at
ETA: I think I'm just misreading the labeling of the particular map I'm looking at
This post was edited on 9/1/17 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:05 pm to Duke
Notice the green lines, they show Harvey (the green circle at the start) merging with the incoming trough. Then they show the next trough digging in as heights rise (red lines) off the East Coast. At this point, the key is the base of the green lines as the 2nd trough digs in (our 1st cold front of the season), does it cutoff and retrograde or does it lift out faster. Those are the doors to the Gulf that could be opened.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:11 pm to rds dc
I see it.
As the second trough starts splitting in possibilities, the Irma circle starts really fracturing in different directions. Really brings home the point
It's a pretty interesting set up.
As the second trough starts splitting in possibilities, the Irma circle starts really fracturing in different directions. Really brings home the point
quote:
the key is the base of the green lines as the 2nd trough digs in (our 1st cold front of the season), does it cutoff and retrograde or does it lift out faster.
It's a pretty interesting set up.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:14 pm to Duke
quote:
You guys want to see how much variability is cooked into the models past five or six days? Below is a composite of the 500 mb heights for each GFS ensamble member going out in time.
Is that Irma popping in as a smiley face out of the southeast?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:21 pm to mellowbellow
I think the Euro may be running south this go round
still got a number of images to pop in though
ETA: ehh... I think my eyes may be deceiving me
"I'm thinkin' about gettin' thicker glasses"
still got a number of images to pop in though
ETA: ehh... I think my eyes may be deceiving me
"I'm thinkin' about gettin' thicker glasses"
This post was edited on 9/1/17 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:25 pm to Duke
quote:
From Charleston to the OBX? Am I reading this correctly?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:28 pm to rt3
quote:
I think the Euro may be running south this go round still got a number of images to pop in though ETA: ehh... I think my eyes may be deceiving me
Unfortunately the Euro runs every 12 hours, and even then, it runs in 24 hour increments, at least on Tropical Tidbits. That makes it difficult to compare back to back runs.
That being said, this run seems to be very similar to the 00z run at this point.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:30 pm to slackster
quote:
Unfortunately the Euro runs every 12 hours, and even then, it runs in 24 hour increments, at least on Tropical Tidbits. That makes it difficult to compare back to back runs.
That being said, this run seems to be very similar to the 00z run at this point.
for some reason I thought the 00z run had it further away from the Windward Islands... but when I went back it did look much closer than I thought
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:34 pm to slackster
quote:
That being said, this run seems to be very similar to the 00z run at this point.
At 150h, slightly north of 00z but the trough appears to be lifting out faster.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:34 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Where is "everything pointing toward this in the gulf?"
PEEJ said it would hit the east coast!
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
At 150h, slightly north of 00z but the trough appears to be lifting out faster.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but a stronger storm is more likely to find a weakness in a ridge, correct?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:37 pm to roadGator
quote:Do you live in Bermuda? It is a good trend for all of us here in the Continental U.S. If you live in FL (like I do) this is definitely good news. Now keep in mind its still a loooong ways out so models, synoptic pattern can and will change between now and then, but if the latest Euro model plays out now I think the entire East Coast would be ok, as I see it.
Not for all of us. More North more quickly please, Irma.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:37 pm to rds dc
quote:
At 150h, slightly north of 00z but the trough appears to be lifting out faster.
also... potential Jose seems better developed this time I believe
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:37 pm to slackster
quote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but a stronger storm is more likely to find a weakness in a ridge, correct?
It will be steered by the deep level flow vs the low level. That typically means it will move towards the weakness.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:38 pm to rds dc
From the very little I think I understand about steering currents and these goofy maps, it appears this setup through 168 hours would be concerning for the east coast:
Posted on 9/1/17 at 1:38 pm to rds dc
quote:
It will be steered by the deep level flow vs the low level. That typically means it will move towards the weakness.
Thanks.
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