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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:52 pm to rt3
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:52 pm to rt3
000
WTNT41 KNHC 012050
TCDAT1
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017
Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long. Satellite
images indicate that the cycle is now complete, with Irma displaying
a larger warm eye. The initial wind speed has been set to 105 kt,
in agreement with the CIMSS ADT. Since the eyewall cycle is
finished, some strengthening is possible, although SSTs are
currently pretty marginal. Although no increase in winds is shown
in the short term, this could be conservative. During the next few
days, water temperatures along the track will warm significantly,
but there could be some higher shear, and of course more eyewall
replacements. The forecast is a compromise between the
statistical/dynamical models, which bring the intensity down then up
again, versus the global models and hurricane models, which show a
rather strong cyclone.
The westward turn of Irma has begun, and the current motion is
275/12. A building mid-level high should cause the hurricane to
turn west-southwestward tomorrow and continue through early next
week. Later on, Irma should reach the southern periphery of the
ridge, and begin to move west-northwestward. The biggest change
since the last forecast is that the GFS and its ensemble has
trended southwestward, toward the unwavering ECMWF model on the
track forecast. Given the trend in guidance, little change is made
to the official track prediction, although the corrected consensus
models and the HWRF are now southwest of the latest forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the
Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.
2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 18.8N 39.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 45.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 16.4N 52.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 56.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 61.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Blake having a little fun hehe
WTNT41 KNHC 012050
TCDAT1
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017
Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long. Satellite
images indicate that the cycle is now complete, with Irma displaying
a larger warm eye. The initial wind speed has been set to 105 kt,
in agreement with the CIMSS ADT. Since the eyewall cycle is
finished, some strengthening is possible, although SSTs are
currently pretty marginal. Although no increase in winds is shown
in the short term, this could be conservative. During the next few
days, water temperatures along the track will warm significantly,
but there could be some higher shear, and of course more eyewall
replacements. The forecast is a compromise between the
statistical/dynamical models, which bring the intensity down then up
again, versus the global models and hurricane models, which show a
rather strong cyclone.
The westward turn of Irma has begun, and the current motion is
275/12. A building mid-level high should cause the hurricane to
turn west-southwestward tomorrow and continue through early next
week. Later on, Irma should reach the southern periphery of the
ridge, and begin to move west-northwestward. The biggest change
since the last forecast is that the GFS and its ensemble has
trended southwestward, toward the unwavering ECMWF model on the
track forecast. Given the trend in guidance, little change is made
to the official track prediction, although the corrected consensus
models and the HWRF are now southwest of the latest forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the
Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.
2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 18.8N 39.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 45.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 16.4N 52.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 56.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 61.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
Blake having a little fun hehe
1
Posted on 9/1/17 at 4:12 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Since the eyewall cycle is
finished, some strengthening is possible, although SSTs are
currently pretty marginal.
quote:
INIT 01/2100Z 18.8N 39.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 45.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 16.4N 52.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 56.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 61.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
Someone should tell Irma
Posted on 9/1/17 at 4:19 pm to rds dc
quote:
Someone should tell Irma
If Irma continues to strengthen ahead of schedule then it might get farther SW. The deep flow around the ridge and the ULL will make for a pretty stout steering current.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 4:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
If Irma continues to strengthen ahead of schedule then it might get farther SW. The deep flow around the ridge and the ULL will make for a pretty stout steering current.
Jesus man. I will need alot of beer and whiskey if that thing enters the GoM.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 4:40 pm to jdd48
quote:
Jesus man. I will need alot of beer and whiskey if that thing enters the GoM.
No worries right now. It could get farther SW and still turn out to sea. Way too much uncertainty in the forecast.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 4:47 pm to rds dc
I know the tropical specific models like to really blow em up, but an annular hurricane in 96 hours would be wild.
In terms of the better SW push for a deeper storm, would that impact forward motion at all? The flow out of it's NE at height pushing it more SW obvious makes sense, but would it feeling more force from higher levels of wind move it faster or kind of just be canceled by Irma having more mass to push?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:05 pm to Duke
quote:
I know the tropical specific models like to really blow em up, but an annular hurricane in 96 hours would be wild
Would be nice to get a recon flight over it if this occurs. In-flight radar would be dope, as there aren't many radar images of annular hurricanes that I can find.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:12 pm to slackster
quote:
Although tropical cyclones can achieve annular characteristics across a wide spectrum of intensities, annular storms are typically strong tropical cyclones, with average maximum sustained windspeeds of 108 kn (200 km, 124 mph). In addition, storms attaining annular characteristics are less prone to weakening as a result of negative environmental factors. Annular cyclones can maintain their respective peak intensities for extended periods of time unlike their asymmetric counterparts
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:27 pm to Jim Rockford
Makes sense though. Few distinct bands means there are few gaps for dry air to infiltrate. They symmetrical shape helps buffer wind shear as well.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:38 pm to rds dc
quote:
Just a 935 into NYC
GFS is much faster than the Euro this time around.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:42 pm to jdd48
quote:don't worry. This storm will likely recurve well east of the US and even much less likelihood it gets in the gulf.
quote:
If Irma continues to strengthen ahead of schedule then it might get farther SW. The deep flow around the ridge and the ULL will make for a pretty stout steering current.
Jesus man. I will need alot of beer and whiskey if that thing enters the GoM.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:42 pm to rds dc
quote:
Just a 935 into NYC
Would be interesting considering many NY-based media outlets said we shouldn't have to pay for relief for places where natural disasters like hurricanes happen.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:42 pm to rds dc
A 3 or 4 into NYC would be...Jesus.
Like 3-4 million would need to evacuate. Incredible property loss. Let's not go down that route Irma.
Like 3-4 million would need to evacuate. Incredible property loss. Let's not go down that route Irma.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:44 pm to slackster
Faster = better for the east coast. Less time for the front to retrograde.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:45 pm to upgrayedd
935 millibars is very unlikely at that high latitude.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:45 pm to otowntiger
Imagine the destruction if this hits New York.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:46 pm to rds dc
Oh my god that would be awful
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:47 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
Would be interesting considering many NY-based media outlets said we shouldn't have to pay for relief for places where natural disasters like hurricanes happen.
Sandy pretty much shut that talk up.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 5:51 pm to slackster
quote:
Sandy pretty much shut that talk up
That might've been the worst one-two punch I've ever seen. Hurricane then snow.
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