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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:00 pm to Duke
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:00 pm to Duke
quote:
3 or 4 into NYC would be...Jesus.
The surge from a annular cat 4 would wreck Long Island. That would be a disaster. Not to mention the snowflakes not capable of wiping their own arse wouldn't have a clue how to survive those conditions. Ain't many baws with duck boats up there to rescue their arse either
2
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:14 pm to upgrayedd
The water is not warm enough for thaw storm to stay at a cat 4 if it were to hit NYC.... but let's say it's a car 2 that hovers over the area for two days then .... yes very bad flooding for NYC.... though if it gets to NYC I don't see it staying long at all.....
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:16 pm to dukke v
quote:
though if it gets to NYC I don't see it staying long at all.....
NYC f*cked
way to go PJ
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:17 pm to deltaland
dafuq is this... doesn't appear to be the potential Jose we've been watching... forms in the Caribbean and rides up the east FL coast and up the eastern seaboard
This post was edited on 9/1/17 at 6:26 pm
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:22 pm to deltaland
quote:
Ain't many baws with duck boats up there to rescue their arse either
A rescue effort by Republicans would trigger them into oblivion.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:22 pm to dukke v
quote:
though if it gets to NYC I don't see it staying long at all
How do you know? Maybe Irma always wanted to be a big city girl. She may just stay for a while. May be a big Sinatra fan. Bitches love Sinatra.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:23 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
A rescue effort by Republicans would trigger them into oblivion.
dat white privilege doh
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:50 pm to rds dc
quote:
18z GEFS
What are we looking at here? Ensemble members, right?
Is the bold black line the operational run?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:52 pm to rds dc
that looks to be movement in a negative direction
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:54 pm to slackster
quote:
Is the bold black line the operational run?
the 18z GFS had landfall on Long Island
these models are all well south of the NE
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:56 pm to rt3
quote:
he 18z GFS had landfall on Long Island
these models are all well south of the NE
Yeah, but I always thought it was the operational run, and clearly it isn't.
ETA - Never mind. I thought the GEFS was the ensemble members of the GFS. That is obviously not the case.
This post was edited on 9/1/17 at 6:59 pm
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:57 pm to rt3
When would it be projected to hit Florida?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 6:59 pm to rds dc
Wow. That's the most focus I've seen yet.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 7:01 pm to LSU1018
quote:
When would it be projected to hit Florida?
I would take that little whatever I posted with a grain of salt right now... nothing to even consider at the moment
Posted on 9/1/17 at 7:01 pm to slackster
quote:
Yeah, but I always thought it was the operational run, and clearly it isn't.
ETA - Never mind. I thought the GEFS was the ensemble members of the GFS. That is obviously not the case.
oh so that has nothing to do with the GFS... got it
This post was edited on 9/1/17 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 9/1/17 at 7:09 pm to slackster
For reference, here's 12z vs 18z GFS:
The GFS members are seeing something causing them to come to better agreement on this run, but what would do that when it's still this far out? Is it the SW jog becoming less of a guess/tighter grouped, or would that affect the long term grouping THAT much?
ETA- just noticed how much all of the intensity guidance matches now too, the members must be seeing something similar in the conditions in most of their runs
The GFS members are seeing something causing them to come to better agreement on this run, but what would do that when it's still this far out? Is it the SW jog becoming less of a guess/tighter grouped, or would that affect the long term grouping THAT much?
ETA- just noticed how much all of the intensity guidance matches now too, the members must be seeing something similar in the conditions in most of their runs
This post was edited on 9/1/17 at 7:21 pm
Posted on 9/1/17 at 7:15 pm to RazorBroncs
Might just be some random chance getting them all lined up. Might be something to pay attention. Let's see what the late night delivers.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 7:34 pm to rds dc
If a CAT 4 hits NYC, at least there will be plenty of big money donors.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:22 pm to rds dc
They keep moving farther west. This bad boy unfortunately looks to hit the US somewhere. Might cross Florida then go in the gulf which would double suck
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