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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:25 pm to deltaland
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:25 pm to deltaland
quote:
They keep moving farther west. This bad boy unfortunately looks to hit the US somewhere. Might cross Florida then go in the gulf which would double suck
don't want that door opened... 2 of my worst memories were storms that did this
1
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:33 pm to rt3
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:36 pm to ihometiger
quote:
CNN is clearly following the Peej Model forcast
Junk and shock journalism.
Not just because it's CNN saying this, I'd say the same for FoxNews.
Just stupid to create a story suggesting (in this article , they did say "probably not") a hurricane could hit the same place as HArvey did.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:36 pm to ihometiger
GFS Ensembles valid Sunday night 9/10. Each "bullseye" represents a possible location of Irma. While there is considerable spread this is actually unusually good agreement for an 8 day forecast. LINK
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:39 pm to ihometiger
that looks like my hair in the morning
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:40 pm to ihometiger
I want this to turn north and then east both for the US and my vacation!!! 
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:43 pm to DoUrden
BTW in case anyone sees this and freaks out there is a FAKE Hurricane Prediction outlook circulating the Facebook and scaring all of the housewives.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:44 pm to ihometiger
quote:
ihometiger
The description should be before the pic, imo.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:45 pm to DoUrden
quote:
The description should be before the pic, imo.
concur
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:58 pm to ihometiger
This is pretty cool, showing the projected enthalpy flux of Irma at five days out. Pulling up a whole bunch of energy.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 8:58 pm to rds dc
quote:that one does not look real good for us here in east central Florida. But I'm still thinking it will recurve well east of here.
18z GEFS
This post was edited on 9/1/17 at 8:59 pm
Posted on 9/1/17 at 9:00 pm to otowntiger
What's the latest? I've been yard slaving all day and I'm tired of watching TWC.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 9:06 pm to dkreller
No big changes.
Euro wants to eliminate the Bahamas as a concept. GFS wants to throw a Cat 4 into NYC. So, they're still not sure of much past like 5-7 days except they almost all agree it's going to be a big powerful hurricane.
Euro wants to eliminate the Bahamas as a concept. GFS wants to throw a Cat 4 into NYC. So, they're still not sure of much past like 5-7 days except they almost all agree it's going to be a big powerful hurricane.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 9:15 pm to Duke
quote:
No big changes.
Euro wants to eliminate the Bahamas as a concept. GFS wants to throw a Cat 4 into NYC. So, they're still not sure of much past like 5-7 days except they almost all agree it's going to be a big powerful hurricane.
and some ensemble models hate the Falcons as much as the rest of the NFC South
Posted on 9/1/17 at 9:42 pm to rt3
quote:and apparently Disney World.
quote:
No big changes.
Euro wants to eliminate the Bahamas as a concept. GFS wants to throw a Cat 4 into NYC. So, they're still not sure of much past like 5-7 days except they almost all agree it's going to be a big powerful hurricane.
and some ensemble models hate the Falcons as much as the rest of the NFC South
Posted on 9/1/17 at 9:45 pm to otowntiger
Posted on 9/1/17 at 9:56 pm to ihometiger
Posted on 9/1/17 at 9:58 pm to ihometiger
So to make this sexual yet again (this is the OT), the GFS mean points towards deep penetration of the S. Carolina/Georgia anal crevice, while the operational run goes more sensual with a run straight up the V of NY. Quite the spread there.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 10:11 pm to RazorBroncs
quote:
So to make this sexual yet again (this is the OT), the GFS mean points towards deep penetration of the S. Carolina/Georgia anal crevice, while the operational run goes more sensual with a run straight up the V of NY. Quite the spread there.
This is good
Posted on 9/1/17 at 10:14 pm to rds dc
quote:
The models are going to struggle with 93L. Wave breaking across the North Atlantic is going to spin off some ULLs, not to different than what we saw during 92Ls trip across the Atlantic. Then there is a massive WPAC system that is going to pump a ton of energy into the high latitudes and that always gives the models fits. As that energy is distributed to the downstream waves it will determine the large scale setup across America and the Atlantic as 93L approaches.
So last night, I posted a bit about the ULL, PV streamer, and ridging over the N. Atlantic that would all go into playing a role in the SW dive and the eventual turn back towards the north. The models are still struggling with that but are starting to narrow down the possibilities
So another challenge to focus on is the progression of Sanvu to the high latitudes. As it transitions from tropical to extratropical it will release a ton of energy that will excite the down stream waves (troughs and ridges). This produces a low predictability regime for the weather models as they struggle to with how to transition this energy into the extratropical flow.
For simplicity reasons, think of the black arrows as energy that is helping to pump up ridges and dig troughs (amplifying the downstream pattern)
The transition of Sanvu to the high latitudes plays a role in determining the orientation and strength of the downstream trough that digs into the East Coast as Irma is approaching the US.
In the image above, the red line tracks the Rossby wave dispersion into N. America. Red is ridging and blue is troughing, notice how this is setting up to be on the deepest East Coast troughs in the recent period (red circle) and the dark red is the West Coast ridge amplifying all the way up into Canada. The only problem is that the models struggle with this process and while the timing of the trough may be somewhat pinned down the development of it is still up in the air. Before the models can pin that down they have to figure out the upstream pattern across the Pacific and Western N. America. This is what the last few runs of the GFS have done:
TL, DR version - we are still 4 or 5 days away from pinning down the track of Irma with some certainty.
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