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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Maria - Visiting the Outer Banks before Moving OTS
Posted on 9/18/17 at 2:38 pm to slackster
Posted on 9/18/17 at 2:38 pm to slackster
quote:
Not sure, but I'm pretty sure it's just the fact that there is little radar of a storm until it interacts with land, so there isn't much chance to document a tornado.
First, I'm not an alter and I appreciate you answering my questions.
So, the thought is that there are probably tornadoes but there isn't sufficient radar images to document or identify them? I guess too that it would be waterspouts rather than tornadoes.
2
Posted on 9/18/17 at 2:45 pm to toni_the_tigress
quote:
First, I'm not an alter and I appreciate you answering my questions.
So, the thought is that there are probably tornadoes but there isn't sufficient radar images to document or identify them? I guess too that it would be waterspouts rather than tornadoes.
I could be 100% wrong BUT...
You can only document things (tornadoes) that are within radar range. Which in this case is usually on land.
I do not believe I have ever seen hook echoes on SAT img. Only once they are on radar you can get hi-res velocity imagery and see the couplets pop up per say.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:03 pm to toni_the_tigress
quote:
I guess too that it would be waterspouts rather than tornadoes.
By definition. Tornadoes happen over land.
quote:
So, the thought is that there are probably tornadoes but there isn't sufficient radar images to document or identify them?
There are certainly rotating cells all within the outer bands and even toward the eye, most of the time in the right front quadrant (NE side for our purposes). They are not typically long lived and you need radar to even pick them up.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:07 pm to rds dc
I know we're calling Jose a hurricane still, but uh...this doesn't look very tropical.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:08 pm to Duke
My last (and probably a dumb one) question: Hurricanes weaken when they go over land. Is it the eye going over land that weakens them or is it some other spot within the hurricane?
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:12 pm to toni_the_tigress
quote:
Question for the meteorology experts: How can two hurricanes end up in the same place (Puerto Rico) in less than thirty days?
Sounds unusual and seems suspicious, honestly.
Damn that's one blindingly shiny hook
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:13 pm to toni_the_tigress
quote:
Is it the eye going over land that weakens them or is it some other spot within the hurricane?
It's the center going over land.
The winds slow down from friction with the land. The convective core of the storm loses access to it's fuel. Without fuel to keep the hurricane process going, organization fails, the energy spreads out and storm weakens.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:15 pm to Duke
Recon will send another plane into maria around 4:30 our time this afternoon.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:17 pm to toni_the_tigress
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:24 pm to toni_the_tigress
quote:
My last (and probably a dumb one) question: Hurricanes weaken when they go over land. Is it the eye going over land that weakens them or is it some other spot within the hurricane?
Absent any other dynamic, the major factor in real weakening is the eye making landfall. However, friction over land will keep the winds you see at your inland house below what you see on TV as the max winds of the storm.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:39 pm to Duke
quote:
I know we're calling Jose a hurricane still, but uh...this doesn't look very tropical.
Yeah, the NHC expects it to be post-trop in the next 3 days.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:46 pm to Glock17
quote:
There's always gotta be one arse hole
Whoever runs the models probably posts here and said "I'm gonna frick with them hard"
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:47 pm to slackster
quote:
Yeah, the NHC expects it to be post-trop in the next 3 days.
I know, I'm saying I'm not sure he's not post-trop right now.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:48 pm to slackster
quote:
that's actually a bit west of the previous runs, but they've been all over. Jose is the problem.
I noticed Jose picked up speed heading north. Could that be bad news or was that expected?
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:49 pm to slackster
OT Pro mets (and smarter amateurs than me): I asked this question on storm2k but haven't gotten an answer, with all the concern for the models not getting a good grip on Jose at this time and knowing it will have a big impact on Maria's track, how confident is the NHC's five day track? They show it beginning turn north, well east of Florida and the Bahamas. Is there less than normal confidence in that particular piece to this than normal due to the undetermined ultimate resolution to Jose's path and intensity? Any ideas? They pretty much nailed Irma's path and probably will with Maria, but I'm wondering if the solution is less solid than normal.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:51 pm to slackster
...MARIA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR DOMINICA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18
Location: 15.1°N 60.7°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18
Location: 15.1°N 60.7°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:53 pm to lsuman25
000
WTNT45 KNHC 182048
TCDAT5
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.
After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a
motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion
may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward
for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward
Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected
to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near
the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto
Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the
hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to
the south of the various consensus models.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The
intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the
guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt
in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach
category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction
and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some
weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the
possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would
affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.
It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an
eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could
expand to an area larger than forecast.
If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,
Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.
2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.
3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
WTNT45 KNHC 182048
TCDAT5
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from
Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and
this featured has recently become better defined in visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an
intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that
rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity
is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly
possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.
After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a
motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion
may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward
for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward
Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected
to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near
the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto
Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the
hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to
the south of the various consensus models.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The
intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the
guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt
in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach
category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction
and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some
weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the
possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would
affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.
It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,
the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area
near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will
not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an
eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could
expand to an area larger than forecast.
If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,
Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.
2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.
3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:54 pm to toni_the_tigress
quote:
Sounds unusual and seems suspicious, honestly.
Trump trying to kill more brown people with HAARP obviously
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:54 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Maria's eye is open now.
Posted on 9/18/17 at 3:55 pm to otowntiger
quote:
OT Pro mets (and smarter amateurs than me): I asked this question on storm2k but haven't gotten an answer, with all the concern for the models not getting a good grip on Jose at this time and knowing it will have a big impact on Maria's track, how confident is the NHC's five day track? They show it beginning turn north, well east of Florida and the Bahamas. Is there less than normal confidence in that particular piece to this than normal due to the undetermined ultimate resolution to Jose's path and intensity? Any ideas? They pretty much nailed Irma's path and probably will with Maria, but I'm wondering if the solution is less solid than normal.
Here are the Euro and GFS ensembles:
00z Euro:
They're pretty tightly clustered through 120 hours. The uncertainty comes into place after that.
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