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Started By
Message
re: Tornado Chasers are In N Alabama
Posted on 3/19/18 at 11:50 am to Duke
Posted on 3/19/18 at 11:50 am to Duke
quote:
The set up isn't screaming "outbreak" to me. The shear is definitely strong but the convective potential isn't especially impressive. It's certainly enough to pop off supercells though.
I don't see any issues with convection firing. In fact, the limiting factor might be that cells build upscale into a line faster than the models are showing. Any discrete cells will have the potential to produce strong tornados.
1
Posted on 3/19/18 at 11:51 am to deeprig9
I'm not seeing a tornado on velocity. Some rotation generally but nothing tight and nothing strong just yet.
Can bet that cell is dumping some hail though.
Can bet that cell is dumping some hail though.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 11:51 am to deeprig9
Most Birmingham area schools dismissing early. Ours is 2 hours. I got the safe room ready for the family last night. Camp chairs, lantern, flashlights, and bike helmets. But it is basically a vault they'll be in when any warnings go off.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 11:55 am to Flanders
quote:
Flanders
PRAYERS SENT BUDDY
Posted on 3/19/18 at 11:56 am to rds dc
quote:
I don't see any issues with convection firing. In fact, the limiting factor might be that cells build upscale into a line faster than the models are showing. Any discrete cells will have the potential to produce strong tornados.
Always appreciate the insight man.
Note on the convection, it isn't so much inhibition as the CAPE numbers aren'tt crazy high (but definitely more than enough). Plus the high res models didnt seem to be throwing off a bunch of discrete cells.
I'll watch for the line out this pm.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 11:58 am to Duke
quote:
Can bet that cell is dumping some hail though.
Ripley, MS hail
This post was edited on 3/19/18 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:14 pm to deeprig9
And so it begins....
Storm watch mode Activated.
Getting things done at work Deactivated.
Storm watch mode Activated.
Getting things done at work Deactivated.
This post was edited on 3/19/18 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:16 pm to ptra
Are they at a trailer park?
edit: Tigershusker beat me !!!!!
edit: Tigershusker beat me !!!!!
This post was edited on 3/19/18 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:18 pm to deeprig9
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:19 pm to ptra
Yep. Amateur radio storm spotters will be activated soon. I've got my radio with me at work.
Those chasers though...they got balls. Big. Steel. Balls.
Those chasers though...they got balls. Big. Steel. Balls.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:20 pm to 50_Tiger
sitting on the south side of Birmingham Metro - usually get lucky with Oak Mountain stearing shite towards chelsea or north - but every now and then one decides this is a good place to be.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:20 pm to ptra
Stay safe out there...
...SUMMARY...
Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast during the late
afternoon and evening.
...TN Valley and Southeast...
Have upgraded to Moderate risk for the increasing likelihood of
several tornadic supercells between 21-03Z, centered on northern AL
and portions of adjacent states. Expansions to Enhanced and Slight
risks have also occurred across parts of GA and SC for this evening
and tonight. Lowest confidence remains on northern extent of the
strong tornado risk where the degree of surface-based
destabilization is quite uncertain.
LINK
...SUMMARY...
Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast during the late
afternoon and evening.
...TN Valley and Southeast...
Have upgraded to Moderate risk for the increasing likelihood of
several tornadic supercells between 21-03Z, centered on northern AL
and portions of adjacent states. Expansions to Enhanced and Slight
risks have also occurred across parts of GA and SC for this evening
and tonight. Lowest confidence remains on northern extent of the
strong tornado risk where the degree of surface-based
destabilization is quite uncertain.
LINK
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:22 pm to redneck
If I live through this what will be the plans this weekend?
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:22 pm to NorthEndZone
Can only hope those storms line up quickly am I right?
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:25 pm to ptra
I'm ready. About 20 yds to the storm shelter from here.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:29 pm to LSUbase13
quote:
Not cool - especially after Tuscaloosa
What's so bad about it? It's a statement that needs to be repeated over and over again. A trailer is the very last place you want to be.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:31 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Have upgraded to Moderate risk for the increasing likelihood of
several tornadic supercells between 21-03Z, centered on northern AL
and portions of adjacent states
Shows how much I know with the down playing on page one. Meh, watch and learn.
Hope rds has the right idea on an earlier than expected line out. Seen it happen numerous times before in the SE at least. Stay safe out there guys.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:32 pm to Duke
quote:
Note on the convection, it isn't so much inhibition as the CAPE numbers aren'tt crazy high (but definitely more than enough). Plus the high res models didnt seem to be throwing off a bunch of discrete cells.
I'll watch for the line out this pm.
Latest HRRR soundings are showing CAPE above 2,000 with SRH pushing 500. That generates EHI values about 6 across areas of N. Bama later on, so the SPC MOD is certainly warranted. Just for reference, April '11 saw EHI above 12 but anything above 4 is typically considered bad news.
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:34 pm to rds dc
Skies are clearing for the moment in bham sun shining
Posted on 3/19/18 at 12:34 pm to deeprig9
Storm #1 coming in. Heavy rain, some light windshear/rotation.
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