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Message
re: Tropical Storm Cindy
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:44 am to poops_at_parties
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:44 am to poops_at_parties
quote:
Yea, I realized how dumb my question was after I posted it. I went to the site and it seems pretty legit.
Lol I'm just messing with you man. Work email and meetings held is where I am getting this stuff
0
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:45 am to theunknownknight
quote:
Anyone can say that path is for sure now, is an idiot or trolling.
most models are garbage, even with an actual center.
the new GFS is pretty widely disliked. meteorologists seems to agree with the Euro solution as of right now.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:46 am to rwill94
At this point we can all at least agree that a lot of rain is heading toward the SE LA cost and BR/NOLA Metro areas.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:46 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
i'm gonna go with what the NOAA says.
Congrats... How about getting an up to date image from NOAA when you go with them... that was updated a little after midnight last night.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:46 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
You keep saying "meteorologists" as some appeal to authority.
I've seen and read some that aren't saying that's the path so at least name your sources.
I've seen and read some that aren't saying that's the path so at least name your sources.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:48 am to theunknownknight
lol why do i have to name my "sources" but you don't. it's gonna rain a lot. don't be so scared.
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 8:49 am
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:50 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
Because I'm acknowledging multiple possibilities. I'm not making bold claims out of nowhere that flies in the face of multiple models.
You are. So you bear the burden of proof.
You are. So you bear the burden of proof.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:52 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
Euro solution as of right now
Am I right that the Euro has it going to the south Texas coast?
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:53 am to theunknownknight
this guy has his PhD is atmospheric science and thinks the GFS is way off.
LINK
Joe Bastardi thinks the NAM/Euro track is on the right track.
LINK
nobody said it was 100% going to Texas. but it seems as if people who study the fricking weather for a living are leaning that way as of now. that's not a bold claim, idiot.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:53 am to theunknownknight
That map from "stormgeo" is interesting. It's initialized way too far north, and if this storm is that far north already, no way it's going due west to Texas. They seem to be going straight Euro, not taking into account anything else. Probably cause they're based in Norway.
Initialization is farther south, and I'd say Texas is the safe bet. To add though, putting a path out like that at this point without a storm is bullish. Models aren't agreeing, meteorologists don't know where it is going.
The thing with where you get your sources is they all behave differently. The govt. and broadcast won't commit to anything and will downplay a storm cause they don't want to cause panic/be wrong. Private companies will try to lock it down as soon as possible, cause that's what they get paid to do. Social media will hype it up as much as possible to get likes and follows.
Initialization is farther south, and I'd say Texas is the safe bet. To add though, putting a path out like that at this point without a storm is bullish. Models aren't agreeing, meteorologists don't know where it is going.
The thing with where you get your sources is they all behave differently. The govt. and broadcast won't commit to anything and will downplay a storm cause they don't want to cause panic/be wrong. Private companies will try to lock it down as soon as possible, cause that's what they get paid to do. Social media will hype it up as much as possible to get likes and follows.
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 8:57 am
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:53 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
Am I right that the Euro has it going to the south Texas coast?
more like middle Texas, but yes.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:54 am to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
quote:
meteorologists seems to agree with the Euro solution as of right now.
Most meteorologists aren't going with any single solution at this point. They aren't just going to discount the GFS, even if they lean toward the Euro. That's why we don't put forecast cones out until the thing actually becomes a cyclone.
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 8:56 am
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:54 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
That map from "stormgeo" is interesting. It's initialized way too far north, and if this storm is that far north already, no way it's going due west to Texas. They seem to be going straight Euro, not taking into account anything else. Probably cause they're based in Norway.
Initialization is farther south, and I'd say Texas is the safe bet.
Stop...
Jesus, just stop.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:55 am to rds dc
So we have a 15 page thread on the O-T Board about a thunderstorm??
Boy do I miss the good ole days.....
Boy do I miss the good ole days.....
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:57 am to RummelTiger
quote:
Stop...
Jesus, just stop.
Why? Where am I wrong? Their map has a center 100-200 miles north of where NHC is focused, there is no real center. There's no storm to even track.
This post was edited on 6/19/17 at 8:58 am
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:59 am to LSURussian
quote:
So we have a 15 page thread on the O-T Board about a thunderstorm?? Boy do I miss the good ole days.....
Actually we have a thread about a developing tropical system, that will bring the potential for significant heavy rainfall and flooding for someone along the Gulf Coast.
Thanks for your input, though.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 8:59 am to LSURussian
quote:
So we have a 15 page thread on the O-T Board about a thunderstorm??
Boy do I miss the good ole days.....
RIP Rag.
Posted on 6/19/17 at 9:05 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
RIP Rag.
Right?
Posted on 6/19/17 at 9:06 am to GEAUXmedic
Anyways, here are the latest spaghetti plots.
The TVCN is the consensus model, and is typically most accurate. The NHC follows this one closely.
And the GFS ensembles:
The TVCN is the consensus model, and is typically most accurate. The NHC follows this one closely.
And the GFS ensembles:
Posted on 6/19/17 at 9:06 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:Was it ever confirmed that it was Rag who passed away? The last time I checked that thread the consensus seemed to be Rag was trolling the O-T.
RIP Rag.
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