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Started By
Message
re: Nate Bronze: The polls were pretty good
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:43 pm to OBReb6
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:43 pm to OBReb6
quote:
Why do you feel obligated to interrupt our circle jerk if you are just going to post shite like this after a legitimate refutation of your contrarianism is made?
My point isn't that Nate is good or that the industry is good.
My point is that singling Nate out all the time is silly considering within the industry he's not even close to the worst or more dishonest actor, and your point did nothing to refute that reality.
But fair enough on the circle jerk aspect - I'll leave you to the weird ranting about ole Nate.
0
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:46 pm to OBReb6
Pollsters are like NCAA Big Dance prognosticators. Anyone who’s paying attention can tell you 64 of the 68 teams getting in and what seeding most of the teams will have within 1-2 seeds.
The value is in predicting things that are close with specificity. “I was within 2% points” when the whole outcome is completely different might make you feel better. But it’s a failure. If it’s not a failure, no one should ever pay attention to any poll ever again.
The value is in predicting things that are close with specificity. “I was within 2% points” when the whole outcome is completely different might make you feel better. But it’s a failure. If it’s not a failure, no one should ever pay attention to any poll ever again.
This post was edited on 11/19/24 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:52 pm to OBReb6
quote:
This doesn’t mean anything. That’s not what anyone who looks at these numbers argues.
They’re not looking at D vs R votes?
like at all? Are you sure about that? You consider comparisons to other elections as a valuable data point, while he says it’s not. Why do you think comparing the turnout and landscape to 2016 and 2020 are meaningful?
You’re introducing this article as a beacon of his fraudulent status but you didn’t read the whole thing nor do you seem to understand exactly what your issue is with it.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:53 pm to the808bass
Exactly
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:58 pm to the808bass
quote:
Pollsters are like NCAA Big Dance prognosticators. Anyone who’s paying attention can tell you 64 of the 68 teams getting in and what seeding most of the teams will have within 1-2 seeds. The value is in predicting things that are close with specificity.
This is a good analogy.
I’ve never looked at the polls as “predictive” - I think there are clues you can discern from them but there are just as many red herrings.
Nobody should take them as gospel and it seems like the people who get the most upset when they’re wrong are the ones who misunderstand their purpose.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 2:15 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
They’re not looking at D vs R votes? like at all? Are you sure about that?
That’s only part of it. Analyses how many Rs voted early last time, how may Ds, D-R and how D-R compared last time
But they also looked at how party registration had changed, where the early votes were coming from, how many independents were early voting and where they were coming from, etc.
There was much more that went into it with the people who really knew what they were doing than D-R, and again I just don’t think you know what I’m even talking about.
Here’s one person and their projection of North Carolina Trump +4 on October 25 and they give detailed explanations of why. This person had hundreds of posts like this for 2 weeks leading up to the election.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Why do you think comparing the turnout and landscape to 2016 and 2020 are meaningful?
Because other people were able to interpret it in ways they said were meaningful, and they were right. How else would you evaluate this?
quote:
You’re introducing this article as a beacon of his fraudulent status but you didn’t read the whole thing nor do you seem to understand exactly what your issue is with it.
I’m introducing it as yet another case of him gatekeeping a topic and writing a bunch of words to say nothing. He is the king of noncommittal caveats. So why should anyone listen to him when he says nothing? “It’s a coin flip”, I mean seriously? Where’s the value in that?
Sorry it took a while to respond I had to go back and find old tweets
Posted on 11/19/24 at 2:18 pm to OBReb6
Posted on 11/19/24 at 2:19 pm to OBReb6
And more
Again there are hundreds of these
This person made a whole website modeling this stuff
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Again there are hundreds of these
This person made a whole website modeling this stuff
Posted on 11/19/24 at 2:24 pm to OBReb6
This person also made a bunch of predictions based on data
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 11/19/24 at 2:26 pm to OBReb6
This was another guy who got deep into data
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/19/24 at 2:34 pm to OBReb6
quote:
This person made a whole website modeling this stuff
Yeah, he killed it this election. I follow him as well.
The point is, and we are going to disagree here, his model this year was accurate because of the way this year’s electorate shook out. It’s not a good long term predictive strategy, because there is no good long term predictive strategy.
The data he is analyzing was available to others and was often misinterpreted because it comes down to how independents break and what final turnout looks like. There is no way to know and limited ways to guess how those two factors flesh out.
Again, he got the result, and he deserves credit for that. But let’s see how it looks moving forward.
At any rate, I don’t share your disdain for Silver, nor do I fully understand it. There is clearly a lot that I don’t “get” nowadays and that’s okay, so feel free to continue to the circle jerk.
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