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re: No one wants to say it, but we needed a recession
Posted on 4/6/25 at 8:21 am to SDVTiger
Posted on 4/6/25 at 8:21 am to SDVTiger
quote:
So you have no answer just Orange bad?
Thats your plan?
The frick are you talking about?
quote:
Bessent said they will crash the stock market to get ppl to run to bonds to lower the 10yr yield GDP 1st quatter will be negative. UE just went up. Inflation is much lower Now a full 1pt cut is in the making (like I predicted) The faster this happens the faster recovery can happen. And they have till the midterms to do it
And once they crash the market and reservice debt [if they can], then what? You think the market is going to take off after that? If so, the entire point of this was to temporarily solve a debt refinance and not get to the root, which is a spending problem.
Trump has shown zero interest in entitlement reform, and THAT is what has to be tackled next. So either Trump is going to crash this thing now to reservice debt and then cause a further recession by pulling entitlement spending out of the market, or this is all some half-concocted scheme that makes no sense, which is what this is. Because all any of you are talking about is debt reservicing and rate cuts. Nothing in this is an actual long term fix from what any of you is saying.
2
Posted on 4/6/25 at 8:24 am to burger bearcat
As bad as the global financial crisis was, it should have been worse. Governments intervened and propped up a lot of institutions that should have been allowed to fail, allowing private institutions to keep financial gains while transferring losses to taxpayers. GM should have gone out of business, a whole bunch of bond holders should have lost all of their money, and a lot of people should have gone to jail. Instead, the can was kicked down the road. I'm not saying the coming pain is solely those chickens coming home to roost, but I do think there needs to be a reset and it's going to be painful, but it's also necessary.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 8:47 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
BUT, if your argument is that Trump is doing this to service the debt, why will he not just say that?
Because even Trump knows that not possible. You can’t flood the market with $9 Trillion of debt at low interest. There simply will not be enough buyers - especially since we have shown any fiscal discipline here at home for the past 50 years.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 8:53 am to burger bearcat
OP is a cock sucking retard
Posted on 4/6/25 at 8:54 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
The frick are you talking about?
That you havent provided any solution. Just crying
Its almost like you are a male democrat
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:18 am to burger bearcat
quote:
No one wants to say it, but we needed a recession
Not exactly. It's not that it's "needed" but rather that it's been inevitable and most here know it (and have knowingly admitted it or unknowingly acknowledged it in various posts over the years).
A recession has been building up ever since the GFC. You can't have Congress constantly raising debt without killing the USD's value. The only things saving the USD's value has been its role as the primary world reserve currency, the petrodollar and that US securities are considered to be among the safest investments in the world.
Going off these numbers, in 2000 the debt was $5.6T. In GWB's 8 years as President, that amount nearly doubled to ~$10T. Under 8 years of Obama, that $10T nearly doubled to $19T. The next eight years (4 under Trump followed by 4 under Biden) saw that not quite doubled but still jumped a healthy amount by shooting up to $35T.
As our debt grows, so too does our position in each of those categories weaken because those positions are based solely on the perceived security of the USD. Think of it as a 3-legged stool, if one leg fails then the whole thing fails. We're now looking at debt servicing as the 2nd largest expense of the federal government while it still continues to increase debt by over $1T each year.
On the consumer end, we've seen consumer debt drop amazingly during COVID but then more than make up for it in the post-COVID era. Housing price increases have been a big target for people, but what many don't realize is that consumer debt has grown more over the last 10 years than has housing debt. While interest rates have cooled housing somewhat (thus slowing down average housing debt growth), non-housing debt (read: credit cards, auto loans/leases and student loans) continues to increase. Credit card debt is roughly 25% of total non-housing consumer debt, but with that debt having a 20%+ carrying cost each month and consumers continuing to use their credit cards to offset inflation without paying them off, they are creating a bubble every bit as problematic as the federal government's debt.
In 2022 the yield curve (10yr vs 2yr) inverted. Of the last 6 recessions, all but the very first one was preceded by the yield curve uninverting 6-12 months prior (the 1980 recession was already under way when the curve inverted). To generalize that a bit more, anytime the yield curve has inverted there has been a recession within a couple of years later. The curve uninverted in September 2024, meaning March started that 6-12 month window.
Powell's "soft landing" has always been a flight of fancy because a recession was always inevitable. Once people understand that they can then begin to look at what's likely to come next: a consumer debt bubble burst that has the potential to cripple GDP for at least a good year or two (read: as the economy has to adjust to survive without the massive and growing level of consumer debt creation we've been seeing).
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:37 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
not get to the root, which is a spending problem.
Agreed. 100%
quote:
Trump has shown zero interest in entitlement reform, and THAT is what has to be tackled next.
I disagree. Entitlement reform has to start with addressing that poor internals or internals have been being abused or ignored (because there's been a lack of repercussions). Without addressing the source first, you're just treating the symptom. Addressing the source is part of what DOGE is for.
DOGE is not just rooting these things out but its forcing fixes and that latter aspect has caused the all-hands-on-deck resistance to enforcing just basic needs (like making it mandatory that Treasury fills out the TAS code before approving payments so those payments can be verified against corresponding legal approval, this was found by earlier audits but nothing was ever done about it), much less the world-is-ending cries of cutting funding to wasteful things like much of what USAID was involved in.
This post was edited on 4/6/25 at 10:39 am
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:45 am to Bard
If DOGE can truly root out spending, there is hope. I have no issue with USAID being done away with, the Department of Education, anything short of defense, and there’s waste there.
But if Trump is going to rock the market like this, make it mean something. Don’t just reservice the damn debt, take this last term and make it happen. Finally break entitlements.
But if Trump is going to rock the market like this, make it mean something. Don’t just reservice the damn debt, take this last term and make it happen. Finally break entitlements.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:47 am to burger bearcat
Our oligarchs need more more
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:51 am to burger bearcat
In the past couple of days I have read people cheering the market taking a dump,
one poster cheering for a market collapse.
Now some are saying we need a recession.
This is straight up nonsense.
one poster cheering for a market collapse.
Now some are saying we need a recession.
This is straight up nonsense.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 10:52 am to SlayTime
quote:
Do you disclose your strategy when trying to get the wife an extra $1000/mo in alimony?
The comparable analogy is asking if I disclosed to the other party that I want alimony itself. And yes I do when applicable
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:03 am to SneezyBeltranIsHere
What the heck?! We love burger and it was a great post.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:07 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
But if Trump is going to rock the market like this, make it mean something. Don’t just reservice the damn debt, take this last term and make it happen. Finally break entitlements.
That's what he's doing. Reservicing a big chunk of the debt is just part of getting spending down, especially when servicing that debt at current rates is causing a good chunk of deficit spending.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:09 am to RogerTheShrubber
With Trump’s picture on them
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:09 am to L1C4
quote:
In the past couple of days I have read people cheering the market taking a dump,
one poster cheering for a market collapse.
Now some are saying we need a recession.
This is straight up nonsense.
If he wants to radically change the economy, I get it but it will be a massive risk with potential cataclysmic results.
Most of those rooting it are full of shite. They'd be begging for help after a week.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:12 am to SDVTiger
quote:
What part does your tds infected brain disagree with?
tds is thinking negative economic growth is great under trump but bad under biden.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:15 am to RogerTheShrubber
The fact is, if Biden did the exact same thing that Trump is doing, the ones that are cheering it on now would be screaming the loudest.
But because their celebrity President is doing it, they are all for it.
But because their celebrity President is doing it, they are all for it.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:20 am to L1C4
quote:
The fact is, if Biden did the exact same thing that Trump is doing, the ones that are cheering it on now would be screaming the loudest.
But because their celebrity President is doing it, they are all for it.
Indisputable.
Just like how when "I did that" shifts from Biden to Trump, we will see melts.
Posted on 4/6/25 at 11:21 am to SlayTime
quote:
You muh economic zone bros don’t understand what all this is really about.
How will your perceived "nation" benefit from being poorer?
Yeah there will be less income inequality via redistribution and devolving our economy (which is what you expect under leftist economic policies), but y'all haven't articulated why this is a good strategy.
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