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re: WaPo/538 pre and post-debate poll
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:50 pm to imjustafatkid
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:50 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:The exact questions asked was "Which of the following Republican candidates for president are you considering voting for in the Republican primary?"
This is a pretty useless statistic. Nearly every Trump voter would vote for DeSantis if he ends up being the nominee, but he won't pull that vote against Trump.
It was specific to voting in the primary.
1
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:51 pm to ezride25
quote:
You mean to tell me that TODAY we like polls again?
Pick one and stick with it, or don’t. But don’t then also complain that such behavior detracts from your already substandard credibility.
I've never said anything about polls other than ones before the first debate, when normal people start paying attention, didn't mean much.
I simply thought this was an interesting poll because it polled the exact same people both before and immediately after the debate to help gauge how the candidates did.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:51 pm to the808bass
quote:
It’s actually the opposite of useless.
Not really. DeSantis still won't win the primary.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:52 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
quote:
DeSantis also increased his share of people who would consider voting for him from 51% to 67%.
This is a pretty useless statistic. Nearly every Trump voter would vote for DeSantis if he ends up being the nominee, but he won't pull that vote against Trump.
I don't even understand what it means or what useful information such an answer is supposed to be providing.
There were only like 3 of those people on that stage last night who I wouldn't consider voting for. I would hope most republican voters would feel the same way.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:52 pm to MFn GIMP
quote:
The exact questions asked was "Which of the following Republican candidates for president are you considering voting for in the Republican primary?"
It was specific to voting in the primary.
That's right. Most Trump voters would consider voting for DeSantis in the primary if something happened to force Trump out of the election. That doesn't mean they're going to vote for him over Trump.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:52 pm to imjustafatkid
Ok. But he needs people to be willing to consider him as a candidate to gain any traction. That’s exactly what that data point was measuring. So he might very well lose the nomination.
But that stat is the most important stat for him from last night.
But that stat is the most important stat for him from last night.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:53 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
There were only like 3 of those people on that stage last night who I wouldn't consider voting for. I would hope most republican voters would feel the same way.
Exactly. I would consider voting for all of them other than Asa, Christie, and Haley. I wouldn't consider voting for any of them over Trump, which is what actually matters here.
This post was edited on 8/24/23 at 2:54 pm
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:53 pm to the808bass
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:53 pm to MFn GIMP
That’s interesting. It’s also contrary to most everything else I’ve read critiquing the debate.
Isn’t 538 Nate Silvers polling company?
Isn’t 538 Nate Silvers polling company?
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:54 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
don't even understand what it means or what useful information such an answer is supposed to be providing.
Sure ya do. Put on your big boy thinking cap.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:54 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
There were only like 3 of those people on that stage last night who I wouldn't consider voting for. I would hope most republican voters would feel the same way.
Prior to that debate the poll showed only 51% would consider voting for him in the primary. Now it's 67%. That's a pretty big impact that the debate had for DeSantis.
You also have to understand that most people aren't 100% locked into a candidate. Preferences change. It's actually the #1 reason that I hate early voting. The candidate you chose could say something or have come out you strongly oppose to make you change your opinion. I get that Trump has an extremely loyal base who will vote for him no matter what, and that's fine, but most people don't think that way.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:54 pm to Rebel
quote:
most everything else I’ve read
Correct. Rumble and Bannon did not have this data.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:55 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
This is a pretty useless statistic. Nearly every Trump voter would vote for DeSantis if he ends up being the nominee, but he won't pull that vote against Trump.
how can you say that after what they are trying to do to trump?
they are doing anything and everything they can to stop him from running
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:55 pm to Rebel
quote:
That’s interesting. It’s also contrary to most everything else I’ve read critiquing the debate.
Its exactly what I have been seeing and reading.
Trump has his minions out trying to say otherwise. He literally had dinner with multiple establishment media types the night before.
Most neutral observers have said Desantis was the best.
Again, the Trump bubble is not reality.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:56 pm to MFn GIMP
quote:
Prior to that debate the poll showed only 51% would consider voting for him in the primary. Now it's 67%. That's a pretty big impact that the debate had for DeSantis.
You also have to understand that most people aren't 100% locked into a candidate. Preferences change. It's actually the #1 reason that I hate early voting. The candidate you chose could say something or have come out you strongly oppose to make you change your opinion. I get that Trump has an extremely loyal base who will vote for him no matter what, and that's fine, but most people don't think that way.
If he can't pull the Trump vote away from Trump, he can't win the nomination. It really is that simple.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:56 pm to B2BWWchamps
quote:
how can you say that after what they are trying to do to trump?
they are doing anything and everything they can to stop him from running
And the rest of us don't see it that way at all.
They really, really, REALLY want him to be the nominee.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:57 pm to MFn GIMP
quote:
The results are great for DeSantis.
:rotflmao: :rotflmao: "DeSantis, meanwhile, did not see a significant shift in his favorable ratings post-debate."
"Ramaswamy enjoyed a 10-point increase in the share of GOP debate watchers who have a favorable opinion of him"
"Haley boosted her favorability rating by 14 points, putting her in clear positive territory"
You TOTALLY misinterpreted this. You mixed primary voters and debate watchers. The results for debate watchers were ::
LIKELY TO VOTE FOR:
Haley-- +17%
Ramaswamy-- +6%
DeSantis-- +5%
FAVORABILITY:
Haley-- +14%
Ramaswamy-- +10%
DeSantis-- NO CHANGE
UNFAVORABILITY:
Haley-- NO CHANGE
Ramaswamy-- +19% (or -19% depending how you think of it)
DeSantis-- NO CHANGE
Bad night for DeSantis because his opponents got stronger.
This post was edited on 8/24/23 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:57 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
If he can't pull the Trump vote away from Trump, he can't win the nomination. It really is that simple.
You're right. This poll shows that he has moved the needle some by increasing his share of primary voters who say they will consider voting for him. That is step 1.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:58 pm to MFn GIMP
Shocked frankly.
As a ronbot I didn’t think he did that great.
Good to hear.
As a ronbot I didn’t think he did that great.
Good to hear.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 2:58 pm to BornKjun
You don't have a clue what you are talking about. As usual.
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