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Texas Tea 123
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| Number of Posts: | 294 |
| Registered on: | 9/4/2017 |
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re: 2026 O&G Exploration – land-side Louisiana – Expectations
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 1/16/26 at 9:31 am to el Gaucho
At $150/bbl oil the TMS really starts paying out
0
re: XOM Stock
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 1/14/26 at 9:55 am to Lee Chatelain
I mean if you're looking for $150, I'm not sure that extra 15% from $130 is worth the 200%+ you've already gained. Most of the time, selling a portion of the position when you have these internal questions is prudent.
re: 2026 O&G Exploration – land-side Louisiana – Expectations
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 1/14/26 at 9:12 am to GREENHEAD22
Pierre Part is the location
re: 2026 O&G Exploration – land-side Louisiana – Expectations
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 1/14/26 at 8:34 am to GREENHEAD22
Whatever is 30,000-31,000 ft.. they just reached 30,000 ft and filed a permit to go another 1,000 ft. Would imagine production doesn't come for another 6-9 months at the earliest.
re: wtf happened to Austin, Texas
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 1/12/26 at 4:18 pm to TexasTiger08
It became too cool, too popular. Attracts the worst of the worst.
Denver, Austin, Nashville soon
Denver, Austin, Nashville soon
re: Why isn't Lake Charles a lot bigger than it is?
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 1/12/26 at 3:12 pm to CitizenK
Because the only way you can financially thrive in LC is being from family money.
Generally speaking, and of course there are outliers (a doctor here, a lawyer there, a business owner, etc), but a college grad simply cannot make that much money there on your own, there's just not enough going on. And that's the way they like it!
Generally speaking, and of course there are outliers (a doctor here, a lawyer there, a business owner, etc), but a college grad simply cannot make that much money there on your own, there's just not enough going on. And that's the way they like it!
re: 2026 O&G Exploration – land-side Louisiana – Expectations
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 1/6/26 at 9:03 am to ragincajun03
There is an incredibly large shallow water gas well being drilled right now in the swamp.
TMS / Austin Chalk takes $100+ oil
AI will not have any significant impact on this
Edit: TigerV knows ball
TMS / Austin Chalk takes $100+ oil
AI will not have any significant impact on this
Edit: TigerV knows ball
re: TMTG / TAE merger - fusion reactors
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/18/25 at 7:32 pm to Kjnstkmn
We are living in an absolute banana republic
re: Venture Global NYSE Release
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/18/25 at 10:09 am to DiamondDog
I work in finance and have covered LNG stocks in the past you dunce. When knowledgeable and experienced people are telling you something about a subject you know little about, it's best to listen, take the info, and make your own decisions. But go on and lose more money - that's your prerogative
re: Venture Global NYSE Release
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/17/25 at 11:10 am to Texas Tea 123
Legal overhang is not the bear case though. The bear case is that these guys generally have no integrity and the fundamentals of their business are completely breaking down while they suffocate w/ debt.
re: Venture Global NYSE Release
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/17/25 at 11:08 am to DiamondDog
Google
The big issue is that these freaking guys, for years, said their facilities were not commercially complete. When an LNG export facility reaches completion, the contracts kick in. Before being fully commissioned, it can still produce some LNG and those are all equity volumes for the company (e.g. they own them, they buy the domestic gas and sell it internationally at an international price). Spreads were huge, so they made a ton of money. They essentially stole this money from their customers. The customers' contracts should have kicked in leaving VG with a lot less equity volumes to market.
Hope that helps mr "examples please"
BP (Lost): In October 2025, BP won a significant arbitration, with tribunals finding Venture Global failed to act as a "reasonable and prudent operator" by delaying commercial operations to sell at higher spot prices, potentially costing BP over $1 billion.
Shell (Won): Venture Global won its case against Shell in August 2025, though the reasons for contrasting outcomes with BP are unclear.
Others (Ongoing): Repsol, Galp, and Orlen have similar claims against Venture Global, with arbitration ongoing.
Securities Fraud (IPO): Class actions filed after Venture Global's January 2025 IPO allege false statements about project viability and legal challenges, according to firms like Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP and Rosen Legal.
Employee Stock Options: Lawsuits filed by former advisors (Muller, Ruggirello) and former General Counsel (Dillbeck) claim the company blocked them from exercising stock options, reports Bloomberg.com.
The big issue is that these freaking guys, for years, said their facilities were not commercially complete. When an LNG export facility reaches completion, the contracts kick in. Before being fully commissioned, it can still produce some LNG and those are all equity volumes for the company (e.g. they own them, they buy the domestic gas and sell it internationally at an international price). Spreads were huge, so they made a ton of money. They essentially stole this money from their customers. The customers' contracts should have kicked in leaving VG with a lot less equity volumes to market.
Hope that helps mr "examples please"
BP (Lost): In October 2025, BP won a significant arbitration, with tribunals finding Venture Global failed to act as a "reasonable and prudent operator" by delaying commercial operations to sell at higher spot prices, potentially costing BP over $1 billion.
Shell (Won): Venture Global won its case against Shell in August 2025, though the reasons for contrasting outcomes with BP are unclear.
Others (Ongoing): Repsol, Galp, and Orlen have similar claims against Venture Global, with arbitration ongoing.
Securities Fraud (IPO): Class actions filed after Venture Global's January 2025 IPO allege false statements about project viability and legal challenges, according to firms like Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP and Rosen Legal.
Employee Stock Options: Lawsuits filed by former advisors (Muller, Ruggirello) and former General Counsel (Dillbeck) claim the company blocked them from exercising stock options, reports Bloomberg.com.
re: Venture Global NYSE Release
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/16/25 at 10:16 am to Louie T
Not to mention the amount of debt they have levered the company up with..
re: Venture Global NYSE Release
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/16/25 at 9:27 am to K E V 8 4
This company is trash. I've spoken in length about in another thread. I'm a buyer at sub $3, maybe
re: Thoughts on LNG stocks?
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/15/25 at 4:32 pm to SlidellCajun
Cheniere is a cleaner play in every single way possible.
Execution, management integrity, business model, balance sheet, etc.
VG is trash. Their fees on contracted volumes are lower than anyone. They rely on trading basically. And they are incredibly over levered. And there is still a big unknown with pending lawsuits and such. And they claim that they can get volumes to above like 40% of nameplate capacity on their trains... ok buddy sure, would that even be economically accretive at today's spreads? Eh
This is what happens when a banker and a lawyer from NYC get together and want to make a boat load of money for themselves.
Execution, management integrity, business model, balance sheet, etc.
VG is trash. Their fees on contracted volumes are lower than anyone. They rely on trading basically. And they are incredibly over levered. And there is still a big unknown with pending lawsuits and such. And they claim that they can get volumes to above like 40% of nameplate capacity on their trains... ok buddy sure, would that even be economically accretive at today's spreads? Eh
This is what happens when a banker and a lawyer from NYC get together and want to make a boat load of money for themselves.
re: Venture Global NYSE Release
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/15/25 at 4:31 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Closed under $6 today. How low does it go?
Easily another 20-40% of downside
re: Thoughts on LNG stocks?
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/15/25 at 8:20 am to Beessnax
Domestic gas prices vs. international gas prices
I sound like a broken record
Domestic gas went from <$3 to >$4
International gas went from >$15 to <$10
Right now, the spread is about $5. That is kind of where the fulcrum begins where you make or don't make money on marketing volumes and also brings into the conversation questions around recontracting (e.g. original contracts were struck when the spread was $8-10, now it's far lower, etc). Also, there are a million new export facilities being built.
So, fundamentals breaking down, more capacity coming online, no bueno.
I sound like a broken record
Domestic gas went from <$3 to >$4
International gas went from >$15 to <$10
Right now, the spread is about $5. That is kind of where the fulcrum begins where you make or don't make money on marketing volumes and also brings into the conversation questions around recontracting (e.g. original contracts were struck when the spread was $8-10, now it's far lower, etc). Also, there are a million new export facilities being built.
So, fundamentals breaking down, more capacity coming online, no bueno.
re: Thoughts on LNG stocks?
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/11/25 at 4:39 pm to bulldog95
OKE has gotten pretty beat up over the past year or so. And they deserved it for some reckless M&A. But I bought around $70, though, which ultimately is a <10x EBITDA multiple.
re: Thoughts on LNG stocks?
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/10/25 at 3:40 pm to Texas Tea 123
quote:
Aren’t these LNG plants signing 20 year contracts on set prices before the facility is ever built?
They do sign up capacity at fixed tolling rates, but not for 100% of nameplate capacity. They all have merchant arms that market around their open capacity. Example — VG contracts 75% of their capacity and uses the remaining 25% to essentially work the domestic / international spread, which is compressing.
re: Thoughts on LNG stocks?
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/10/25 at 3:38 pm to BayouBengals21
quote:
You think they are just waiting for the next period of time where they will just be able to pick up and run full speed? It might be ten years but they want that pad ready and raring to go is my only estimation.
So sink multiple billions into the ground and hope it’s needed later down the line? That’s not how capital providers work my friend!
re: Thoughts on LNG stocks?
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/10/25 at 12:12 pm to jfw3535
Cheniere has been a huge winner. They had a gigantic first mover advantage and did a wonderful job contracting, constructing, operating, just generally executing.
Most of those gains happened early or post COVID sell off. That was the easy stuff.
I mean the stock is down y/y
Most of those gains happened early or post COVID sell off. That was the easy stuff.
I mean the stock is down y/y
re: Thoughts on LNG stocks?
Posted by Texas Tea 123 on 12/10/25 at 11:03 am to bulldog95
One must ask themselves -- what drives a LNG export company?
The spread between domestic gas and international gas.
Domestic gas is on an upward trajectory.
International gas isn't.
Meanwhile, there is way too much capacity being built.
So what happens when you have 2x the amount of capacity that is needed to meet demand?
Also OKE is not an LNG stock
VG could very well go bankrupt in 5+ years
The spread between domestic gas and international gas.
Domestic gas is on an upward trajectory.
International gas isn't.
Meanwhile, there is way too much capacity being built.
So what happens when you have 2x the amount of capacity that is needed to meet demand?
Also OKE is not an LNG stock
VG could very well go bankrupt in 5+ years
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