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IPALover
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | New Orleans, LA |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 10 |
| Registered on: | 11/6/2018 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
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re: Weird that people on this board are acting as if it's assumed that we will beat A&M
Posted by IPALover on 11/11/18 at 7:31 pm to The First Cut
There it is boys. They are assuming they suck because of bad losses earlier. Literally happening in front of your eyes. Unreal
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Weird that people on this board are acting as if it's assumed that we will beat A&M
Posted by IPALover on 11/11/18 at 7:28 pm
They are no cake walk whatsoever. We are going to their place where they damn near beat Clemson and are desperate to end their losing streak against us. They put up 23 more points than we did against Alabama and it's clear they prepare well for big games. Their defense is certainly a level above Arkansas, and we are likely to be only 3,4 point favorites from what I am seeing from early lines.
If something doesn't change before then in the offensive play calling/scheme (likely not) then we will lose that game. It was the same thing with Florida. Everyone assumed we were so much better because they had a bad loss to Kentucky. Do not assume the same for A&M because they have had a couple bad losses. They have a much smarter Coach.
If something doesn't change before then in the offensive play calling/scheme (likely not) then we will lose that game. It was the same thing with Florida. Everyone assumed we were so much better because they had a bad loss to Kentucky. Do not assume the same for A&M because they have had a couple bad losses. They have a much smarter Coach.
re: Was Nick Brossette more situation aware than the LSU coaches on that last series?
Posted by IPALover on 11/11/18 at 1:03 pm to rickgrimes
Who cares how intelligent the play was. The lack miscommunication between players and coaches is unreal.
Also, we literally never finish drives in the red zone. Just get in there and make it seem like we somewhat won by a decent amount. Just step on the gas for once. Unreal
Also, we literally never finish drives in the red zone. Just get in there and make it seem like we somewhat won by a decent amount. Just step on the gas for once. Unreal
Is this offense actually working in practice?
Posted by IPALover on 11/11/18 at 12:35 pm
This post isn’t meant to be bitching or anything like that, just asking for more information on how things work.
These offensive plays that we run: poor screen passes, offensive line falling apart, no receivers getting open, etc. Do they work in practice? If so, is our scout team really that bad? I mean Ole Miss put like 50 on this team. If not, is there not some second opinion or someone saying “hey this isn’t working let’s try something else”.
Either scenario is sort of shocking.
EDIT: again, if it’s not working in practice against our defense, why do we keep doing it? This mind boggling to me
These offensive plays that we run: poor screen passes, offensive line falling apart, no receivers getting open, etc. Do they work in practice? If so, is our scout team really that bad? I mean Ole Miss put like 50 on this team. If not, is there not some second opinion or someone saying “hey this isn’t working let’s try something else”.
Either scenario is sort of shocking.
EDIT: again, if it’s not working in practice against our defense, why do we keep doing it? This mind boggling to me
LSU (-11.5) @ Arkansas
Posted by IPALover on 11/9/18 at 12:23 pm
Line opened at LSU (-14). Pinnacle & Nitrogen now have LSU -11.5, while a couple other sites, i.e. BetOnline are showing -12. It is interesting because 75% of public bets placed are on LSU -14, yet the line has dropped rather significantly in the past day or so. It is possible there is some heavy "sharp" money coming in on the other side forcing books to shift the line in a bit.
This is purely an informational post. Not attempting to cause worry or anything like that. I personally think LSU -11.5 is pretty good value.
EDIT: Will be interesting to see how this holds up in the next 24 hours when more public money starts to roll in.
This is purely an informational post. Not attempting to cause worry or anything like that. I personally think LSU -11.5 is pretty good value.
EDIT: Will be interesting to see how this holds up in the next 24 hours when more public money starts to roll in.
re: Alabama spread vs other top CFB teams
Posted by IPALover on 11/8/18 at 12:50 pm to RogerTheShrubber
That’s not the point.....never mind
re: Alabama spread vs other top CFB teams
Posted by IPALover on 11/8/18 at 12:42 pm to bigosports
Okay? The same still applies. Clemson and Michigan have a better chance. But other teams do not
Alabama spread vs other top CFB teams
Posted by IPALover on 11/8/18 at 12:31 pm
Current Odds across multiple sports books that Vegas has put out as possible matchups for Bama vs playoff contenders (neutral field assumed):
Alabama (-13.5) (-17.5 neutral site probably) vs LSU (last week closing line)
Alabama (-9) vs Clemson
Alabama (-20.5) vs Notre Dame
Alabama (-14) vs Michigan
Alabama (-31) vs UCF
Alabama (-25.5) vs Oklahoma
Besides Clemson (and possibly Michigan) LSU really has the best chance at beating Alabama. Whether this is a testament to our overall talent or great defense, I don’t know. But this is Vegas’ unbiased expectations of teams matchups with them. By the way, what happened last week would not likely change the line with Alabama much (maybe a couple points). Especially, for two top CFB teams, Vegas’ lines are very sharp and efficient and over the long term their predictive models beat out 99% of bettors. 1 result wouldn’t likely change their opinion by much for those that might bring up that objection.
I have tracked this the past 3-4 years and it is like this every year. LSU, at least according to Vegas, is top 4 team year in and year out. Yet, we typically finish outside the top 10 or even worse. Part of that is difficulty in schedule but most of it is a result of absolute atrocious coaching.
When people say “LSU fans are spoiled and aren’t happy with 8-9 win seasons” Why would be? We are repeatdebly underperforming year by year.
Alabama (-13.5) (-17.5 neutral site probably) vs LSU (last week closing line)
Alabama (-9) vs Clemson
Alabama (-20.5) vs Notre Dame
Alabama (-14) vs Michigan
Alabama (-31) vs UCF
Alabama (-25.5) vs Oklahoma
Besides Clemson (and possibly Michigan) LSU really has the best chance at beating Alabama. Whether this is a testament to our overall talent or great defense, I don’t know. But this is Vegas’ unbiased expectations of teams matchups with them. By the way, what happened last week would not likely change the line with Alabama much (maybe a couple points). Especially, for two top CFB teams, Vegas’ lines are very sharp and efficient and over the long term their predictive models beat out 99% of bettors. 1 result wouldn’t likely change their opinion by much for those that might bring up that objection.
I have tracked this the past 3-4 years and it is like this every year. LSU, at least according to Vegas, is top 4 team year in and year out. Yet, we typically finish outside the top 10 or even worse. Part of that is difficulty in schedule but most of it is a result of absolute atrocious coaching.
When people say “LSU fans are spoiled and aren’t happy with 8-9 win seasons” Why would be? We are repeatdebly underperforming year by year.
Am hearing positive things as well about him joining within the next couple of days
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