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LSUTIGERS74
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | Houston |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | Mechanical Engineer |
| Number of Posts: | 282 |
| Registered on: | 10/3/2007 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: AI tools for stock picking
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 2/23/26 at 11:30 am to BabyTac
quote:
Used AI for college sports betting this past year and picked 68.6% winners. Took me a bit to fine tune the right input algorithm, or may have been over 70%.
BabyTac - did the same thing last year for CFB (was just above 70% win rate) and now for ncaam (a little over 60%), nba and nhl, if open would enjoy comparing notes on what you setup for AI algo? can email me at scott@quaizimo.com
2
re: OT Gambling Degenerates do you use a site for recommendations?
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 2/20/26 at 10:24 am to caill430
I built a line prediction / sports analytics site last year to educate bettors on how to pick rather than using gut and intuition, I am using AI and custom algorithms to generate predictions. I would link it but I will get whacked again. I created a free TD username for the community.
Email me at scott@quaizimo.com
Email me at scott@quaizimo.com
re: What’s your bet on the Miami -3.5 vs ole miss +3.5 line?
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 1/7/26 at 1:00 pm to West Monroe
My AI algo model has this leaning to Miami -3.5. with sharp divergence building on the money side for Miami to cover (i.e. sharps money outweighing public betting sentiment)
re: Vegas installed Bills as a road favorite vs Jags
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 1/7/26 at 12:58 pm to H-Town Tiger
Bills back to -1, public betting has slight divergence on money for Bills currently, this will probably build to a larger divergence as game gets closer.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/18/25 at 3:17 pm to bleedpurplengold
quote:
I agree with this
It is still free trial for now, haven't decided when i will pull it back but really appreciate everyone that has taken a look at it, shame I got anchored on this thread and you have to go to page 4 to find it. this week I will lock in the tiers on Saturday morning around 10am to prevent it throwing any games out last minute due to updating spreads from Vegas last minute. This changed a few picks way to late to readjust. Also my twitter feed has the free CBB picks until I get the algo on the site.It is even more picky on the games, maybe 1 a day if not at all.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/17/25 at 3:31 pm to Gings5
Depending on the update time it went 5-4 or 5-3 on Tier A, it threw out the San Jose State game at last minute on spread change (and they got smoked) I was 5-4 because I had already taken pick. Elite went 3-2 and tier c fades only 3-3
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/15/25 at 12:05 pm to LSUTIGERS74
actually just ran a parlay analysis from backtest using 3 game strategy and elite was a better historical win rate with 38% using just elite. The probability games from 57-59% performed better than large prob games.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/15/25 at 11:12 am to LSURoss
I don't disagree, the action plays are fun! If I was parlay today, I would take a top two probabiilty tier A for home team picks (highest historical win rate) and top one or two tier B picks (they are always home favorites as that is part of filter).
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/15/25 at 10:16 am to LSU999
quote:
LSU999
The Tier C Fade on Troy at my lunch as well, these are just bonus bets to try so I only play 1U if I play at all, last week I should have played because they went 5-1 (63.4% WR on 2025)
For reference last week I didn't play any of the Tier C Fades, I only played Tier A (went 4-2, betting 2U as these are higher prob.) and Elite (went 2-2, betting 1U). I would post my results but can't figure out how to post a image without twitter/X link (tried google drive url but that didn't work).
What's interesting is the Troy vs OD game flipped to a Tier A at last minute with closing line movement and covered with OD pick (I wish I had seen it in time as I had already taken the Troy fade). This is one of the nuances of the system with betting earlier with lines that are still moving.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/15/25 at 9:51 am to LSURoss
I don't do parlays on this system but would have done well last week starting 3-0 on Tier A. It isn't designed to take filter parlays but if you do, use home favorites only and Tier A games.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/14/25 at 8:09 pm to LSUTIGERS74
I know see I got anchored.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/14/25 at 8:14 am to castorinho
quote:
castorinho
Thank you for prompting me to look into the line issue, I was able to refine the algorithm by changing the threshold down to 20 / 10 (edge) which pushed borderline picks (just below Tier A threshold) into Tier A and improved the win rate across the full 2021 - 2025 backtest.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Tier A:
Record: 392-182 (575 picks)
Win Rate: 68.26%
Tier Elite:
Record: 153-51 (204 picks)
Win Rate: 75.00%
Combined (A + Elite):
Record: 545-233 (779 picks)
Win Rate: 70.03%
The other thing of note from the deep dive, was trailing the probability with line movement was not great for win rate as the trailing factor is not linear for points move greater than +/- 1 so that got thrown out the window, but the outcome of this was the backtesting shown above uses the closing line before kickoff as that is the last data point to pull in the historical data set. I ran opening line backtesting and the WR dropped to roughly breakeven versus what I show above.
re: CFB only game in town thread Thursday 11/13/25
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/13/25 at 6:30 pm to G The Tiger Fan
Took the fade with Troy +10
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/13/25 at 2:12 pm to WITNESS23
quote:
Can you explain "edge" to me?
Our edge is not the typical edge model Vegas would apply and calling it edge is probably not the best term, we actually define it as confidence score in how it works section of website, but basically it is house probability - market probability. This is a bit of a paradox but it works really well in our backtesting win rate and tier selection because as the spread gets worse (bad for bettors) the gap between our house probability and market prob gets wider (market prob goes down with spread going up, i.e. less chance to cover). However if the house probability was already >60% and the edge jumps over our +25pp with the widening gap means the pick gets pushed into our tier A picks. A bit confusing but the data on those picks versus using an adjusted probability with line movement sent the backtesting wins way down. The best thing to do is take the picks as close to kickoff with Tier A (as long as the spread doesn't move it out of Tier A) as that uses the latest lines in the calc.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/13/25 at 9:49 am to JimTiger72
quote:
JimTiger72
This AI tooling is in the works but haven't gotten that far down the development path on add-ons. For now the algo takes all the games for the week in an initial run and creates a set of data for the full set, then my weekly pick generator tosses out games that have poor probability and edge (weeding out), then it takes the remainder of games that have a decent set up and grades them. That is why there is only 21 games even considered for a pick out of the ~52 games this week.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/13/25 at 9:46 am to castorinho
quote:
castorinho
Yes it is completely counter-intuitive and I think I just figured out why. The algo takes the opening line value and creates a house probability based on about ~80 data points then compares that to market probability at that moment. So when the line shifts it keeps the house probability the same and recalculates against the market prob which just shifted up when the line went from -6.5 to -5.5. This is an issue I am working to fix now, I am very grateful you found this as it helps explain a few things as it shifted this pick down to tier B because our confidence_score (i.e. edge) is calculated from that diff. in house vs. market. The good news is you found an exploitable bug and changing my thresholds to capture this improved the win rate 5 points because it shifted 8 games from 2024 & 2025 seasons into tier A that went 8-0. Send me your email address and I will set up a free account for you as a thank you.
Also taking a look at another option to shift house prob with lines but still running backtest on that before I can deploy.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/13/25 at 6:21 am to uptowntiger84
Site is back up, thats my fault I crashed it late last night trying to get picks to auto update with spread movements.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/12/25 at 9:39 pm to Gings5
Page 2 second post should help understand the tier grading thresholds
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/12/25 at 9:20 pm to Gings5
quote:
Gings5
Yes thats the system, it doesn't work on individual picks. The model is based on the set for the win rate in tier A.
Tonights pick was NIU vs Mass at -10.5 and covered by a mile. 1-0 to start the week 12 picks.
You can bet other tiers but typically more bets to place to meet WR expectancy. Tier C is all fades, so bet opposites (almost always dogs to get WR of ~61%, last week was 5-1 on those and was an outlier). I use a 2U (tier A) and 1U on all other if I decide to take. For example Alabama current spread at -5.5 falls into Tier B but I know it was a Tier A earlier in the week with -6.5 spread but when spread dropped market probability increased which thru our edge lower and out of our threshold.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/12/25 at 9:00 pm to J Murdah
Sure $13 a week can seem high (but considering vig is -110 still a value compared to what you pay the house just to place the bet if you lose) and still cheaper than a damn caniac. I priced this for the average bettor just looking for a transparent data driven approach to making weekly picks with actual backtesting results, without relying on these thousands of posters on X offering free picks or "guaranteed locks" with absolutely no data to substantiate their pick. If you ask my marketing buddies they think it should be priced at $250-500 a month and target sharp bettors that fully understand the data and win rates since ~+67% win rates with back testing data is virtually unheard of, however I differ in opinion and want to help bettors like myself that have terrible gut and intuition when making CFB picks.
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted by LSUTIGERS74 on 11/12/25 at 7:56 pm to LSURoss
Wouldn't be shocked at that win rate for MLV. All the professional sports are tough to grade because Vegas is so tuned in but CFB and CBB the algos can find an edge. Noting that I am working on a CBB algo currently and it is completely different and highly selective. NFL is completely off the table even with the large data set, can't even come close to finding a profitable setup.
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