CaptainJ47

re: No phones at Masters

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 4/12/26 at 10:49 am to IamNotaRobot

I freaking loved it. I hope it doesn’t change. Friday and Saturday were GLORIOUS. Amazing how much interaction you have with random people when not glued to a phone.

Golf Board

re: 2025 Taxes

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 4/10/26 at 5:21 am to Trout34

Paid more than ever in taxes

O-T Lounge

re: Sell UNH?

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 4/9/26 at 6:57 pm to SmackoverHawg

My team got asked to do an education for a large entity in Georgia about this exact topic. Providers do get a tick up but frankly it is small. The 20 year trend relative to inflation for providers sucks. Providers, especially independents, are in a tough spot.

I am seeing a lot of orgs move from value based care back to fee for service. Beckers maintains a list of those orgs.

That said, I do think the incentive structure in 2028 and beyond does start to shift harder to outcomes based on CMS guidance. Not good for big payers but signs that healthcare has to bend the cost curve. Providers are just stuck in the damn machine.

I assume you are in Arkansas?

re: Sell UNH?

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 4/8/26 at 8:57 pm to Neauxla

The long term view on MA isn’t great, particularly UNH and HUM. The 2027 payment rule gave them a reprieve so I sold the pop. The 2028 rule will likely crush those two in the MA space. I was actually quoted in modern healthcare today about the rule so it is the space I am passionate about. The room to run may be there a bit and I am anxious to see Q1 earnings, but I am out for now.

re: Sell UNH?

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 4/6/26 at 9:17 pm to Nole Man

Hate to disagree but will. Today’s after hours pop is tied to the MA rate notice from CMS. The underlying fundamentals are still not strong in the Medicare Advantage business. In fact they have outsized exposure to risk scores and the notice today essentially delays impact by a year. The earnings call on 4/21 will be important to watch.

For the record I still hold some UNH but will likely use this pop to sell off some and buy alignment health instead.

re: This probably means those terrible State Farm ads will finally be shelved

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 4/1/26 at 6:18 am to back9Tiger

Thanks. I agree on insurance but disagree on rates. First, rates aren’t that bad at 6.5%. It is all about risk. The other thing is if interest rates do come down you will see a surge in buyers thus pushing the prices up because supply may not be there. It is a delicate balance in my mind.

-1

re: This probably means those terrible State Farm ads will finally be shelved

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 3/31/26 at 6:01 pm to back9Tiger

Help me understand how mid 6% interest rates are making housing unaffordable? Are you saying that the rates are too high and are therefore causing payments to be too high?

re: Documentaries / Docuseries

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 3/26/26 at 7:55 am to SlowFlowPro

Good stuff. Thank you.

Movie/TV Board

re: Documentaries / Docuseries

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 3/26/26 at 7:10 am to TulsaSooner78

Perfect thank you!

Movie/TV Board

re: An anecdotal story today why healthcare is so expensive

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 3/25/26 at 10:51 pm to Lawyered

Agree but that isn’t necessarily how it will work. He will be triaged. Once stable he can be asked for payment. Yes he will clog it for a short amount of time until asked to pay. He will have wasted his time and not received treatment if the hospital is effectively run.

O-T Lounge

re: TSA fix idea.

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 3/23/26 at 5:55 am to OysterPoBoy

Or if people wouldn’t show up at 4am for a 9am flight because the media has them in a panic. What happens is there needs to be a balanced flow. People showing up earlier than needed adds strain to a system that can only push a certain number through the machines. This leads to backups and the media saying arrive even earlier. It is circular.

re: Bryce Harper is a f. Patriot

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 3/17/26 at 9:34 pm to Timeoday

Just hit a ball to Tehran in the 8th inning

re: Will McMahon Accept an NIT bid?

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 3/13/26 at 5:41 pm to benoit_BayouBengals

We should. We were 12-1 against non SEC teams. Coach Mc just sucks against the SEC.

Tiger Rant

re: Howard Schultz leaving Seattle for Florida following passage of WA wealth tax

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 3/11/26 at 7:10 am to SlowFlowPro

Working as intended. The problem is the dumbasses will then move to TN or FL and replicate the same type of government decisions.

re: a national parks thread

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 2/22/26 at 9:22 pm to cgrand

Love this thread. I recently watched the Ken Burns park series and have a desire to hit more. Wife isn’t a hiker so we will do low key things like drive. We did Crater Lake and loved what we could drive to in the park.

Travel Board

re: I honestly thought this was a fake statistic, but it isn’t. Tokyo budget vs NYC budget

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 2/22/26 at 1:18 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!

I don’t think the statistics are apples to apples. That said even if it is off by 50% it is still insane.

O-T Lounge

re: Update: War in Iran thread

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 2/21/26 at 7:10 pm to hawgfaninc

I read nuke and call bullshite. Even small ones wouldn’t be deployed.

re: 2nd mortgage or heloc

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 2/21/26 at 7:05 pm to Everyday Is Saturday

Agree. The only thing I would consider is if there is an absolute crash and you can borrow or do a cash out at an insane rate. I got 30 year cash out in Nov 2020 for 2.625%. That is free money in the long run. If I can ever borrow that low again I will max it out and invest in equities and other capital/real estate.

re: What is the purpose of the raised black wall behind center field?

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 2/16/26 at 7:53 pm to Seersucker

It is called a batter’s eye. It is intentionally solid to help make the ball visible for the batter.

Tiger Rant

re: DOGE HHS open sourced the largest Medicaid dataset in dept history

Posted by CaptainJ47 on 2/15/26 at 8:15 am to Timeoday

Oh it would be worth it but the whistle blower cases have been taking forever to settle. I followed the Kaiser case that was recently settled in January. Took 14 years.