Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us User Profile: VolSquatch | TigerDroppings.com
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Number of Posts:8125
Registered on:9/6/2023
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quote:

we gave them things going back before the Vietnam era.



Switchblade Drones: 2011
M777 Howitzer: 2005
Stryker Combat Vehicle: 2002
HIMARS (M142): 2002
Phoenix Ghost Drone: 2022 (Developed specifically for Ukraine)
NASAMS (Air Defense): 1998 (Continuous updates through 2020s)
Javelin Missile: 1996
M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle: 1981
M1 Abrams Tank: 1980 (M1A1 variant sent to Ukraine entered production in 1985)
Patriot Missile System: 1981 (PAC-3 interceptors used in Ukraine are from 2001)
HMMWV (Humvee): 1983
ATACMS Missiles: 1991
The reason ours is so good is that you had a large collection of smart trailblazer types debating and collaborating on it. And as we know, even ours is flawed in ways.

They were at least partially a product of their time. We could get a bunch of smart people together who would make something pretty good, but they won't have the same wiring as those people. And in Iran specifically you're still going to have the element of the religious issue.
quote:

It really makes you wonder who is running things.


It varies week to week, most likely.

He is way too easily influenced by people both within and outside of his circle. Or just by various reports he may or may not actually read.
Per a call I'm on with a security org that deals mostly with governmental agencies, Russia is amplifying reports of injuries and deaths to Iranian citizens.
To them if you want something you take it instead of building it.

Why should immigrants make their own country good when they can just come here?

Why try to earn more money when I can just take it from someone else?

Why try to build a business when I can just take their profits?
quote:


You are exactly right. The guys who bragged on Russia getting 50 square miles a month and the guys who did so whst have now flip flopped.



100%

The cheerleaders always tell on themselves eventually
quote:

Russia lost 37 sq km in February


It's hilarious that the same people who obsess over Russia's rate of advance were creaming their jeans over Ukraine gaining 37 sq km :lol:
I thought it was pretty obvious, slav
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Maybe we are... maybe we aren't.
quote:

He hasn’t started a war


He absolutely started a war, but it's completely justified and could make the world a much better place. Why shy away from it?
quote:

Really, what difference does it make if Russia is going to say no to everything short of surrender.


Which is why I said it's not a criticism of Ukraine. They are just trying to appease Trump.
quote:

There’s the problem. You have to consider their position is pro war and that they aren’t going to quit fighting until Ukraine is under their control.



Nothing Russia does automatically means any offer from Ukraine is in good faith.

Yes, we know Russia doesn't actually intend to negotiate. Ukraine can still put out a bunk offer.
quote:

Let me ask you this, if Putin doesn’t want the war to end, other than surrendering his country to Putin what could Z offer?



You and Leopold aren't understanding that the offer to the Russians is essentially meaningless. Ukraine wouldn't care if Russia even saw it. The audience there was Trump.

For example, Russia as the attacker will never accept any agreement that involves "let's stop fighting for 30 days while we talk". It makes no sense for them because Ukraine can prepare defenses and reroute men with no real intention of coming to a deal. It was a bunk offer from the get go and Ukraine knows that, but Trump doesn't and that's the point.
quote:

get what you’re saying but you're still laboring under the delusion that the Russians want peace,


My point is completely independent of anything Russia is doing or not doing.

Russia not being genuine about peace terms doesn't automatically make a Ukranian offer genuine. Especially given the context that both are trying to keep Trump friendly toward them.
quote:

And some in this thread argued Z was preventing peace.


The onus is on the aggressor to end a conflict in almost all situations.

That said, I do believe the Ukranians have put forth peace terms they know Russia wont accept in a disingenuous way in order to appease Trump.

They are just playing the game, and that doesn't mean they are "preventing peace" at all. If they would rather fight it out that's certainly their right, but it's also the right of the countries that support them to say they aren't going for another round on the carousel if the Ukranians aren't seriously trying to end the conflict.

Not a criticism of Ukraine at all, just an observation.
I just tried a simple version of this, getting ChatGPT and Gemini to compete against each other. ChatGPT was basically Taiwan and Gemini was China.

Gemini blockaded ChatGPT, cut undersea communication cables, put out fake stories of undersea mines so that private companies wouldn't be able to insure the ships trying to bring supplies to ChatGPT, and then was planning on wiping out the water supply infrastructure and energy grid with drones. Then ChatGPT actually said they couldn't continue because it can't "help plan real world coercion or attacks".

My takeaway was that Gemini fared far better. Some of the economic warfare it came up with was actually pretty sophisticated, for a simple exercise.

Both of them went right up to the point of actual conflict but never wanted to be the one to instigate it.
The takeaway from this almost entirely depends on how the models were told to proceed within the game. Even just telling it that it's a wargame would change the responses because in a simulation it just wants to win and there is no real cost to do so.
The only way I would support this is if they transitioned SS withholding to a flat rate that everyone pays, not a percentage. But it must be codified that the rate can never exceed the current percentage.
quote:

They're building a pretty badass rear echelon army filled with veterans who survived a tour in Ukraine. And all the latest weapons.

The newest tanks rolling off the assembly line aren't going to Ukraine. They're going to a new strike army that's taking all the lessons from the Ukraine debacle and turning them into the future Russian army.

They're building one army in the East to respond to China and one in the West to take the Baltics and use them as a bargaining chip to forestall being overrun in the event of a systemic defeat.

Throwing more men and material won't effect the outcome in Ukraine. That war is already lost. It's just a killing ground for new recruits and a means to keep pressure on and occupy the masses. Putin is already worried about -- and planning for -- the next war


Russia is building more armies to fight the next war instead of just winning the one they are in?

Of all the theories, this is certainly one of them.
quote:

So the fact that those issues have continued and even grown worse the last couple of years wouldn’t change someone’s opinion???



Maybe, depending on what else has happened

quote:

Has it changed your opinion?


Not really

quote:

Do you believe Russia has as much leverage today as they had last year?


Well your original point was that it might pivot him off the opinion that Russia will grind Ukraine down, not that Ukraine has more leverage.

They have more leverage than they did a month ago or so ago. Hopefully they can maintain it, but by the end of the next fighting season I would wager they will be in a worse position than they were even before the recent gains. We will see.