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Crescent Connection
| Favorite team: | New Orleans Saints  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | Food, Saints, Hornets, LSU |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 2335 |
| Registered on: | 6/9/2008 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: ASTS, meme stock or real stock?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/16/26 at 10:55 am to Htown Tiger
You’re welcome! This is an exciting time as ASTS is still basically pre-revenue.
I just urge you and others not to get greedy and buy short-dated calls less than a year out. ASTS is not protected from macro events. Have to remind ourselves that nothing is guaranteed and we should temper our enthusiasm and euphoria. I followed that NBIS thread late last year and they got too greedy and short-sighted. A lot of them lost their asses on short-dated calls despite my warning in mid-late October.
I just urge you and others not to get greedy and buy short-dated calls less than a year out. ASTS is not protected from macro events. Have to remind ourselves that nothing is guaranteed and we should temper our enthusiasm and euphoria. I followed that NBIS thread late last year and they got too greedy and short-sighted. A lot of them lost their asses on short-dated calls despite my warning in mid-late October.
1
re: ASTS, meme stock or real stock?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/16/26 at 10:37 am to Htown Tiger
quote:Hold and sell about 3-4 months before expiration, because time decay accelerates about 90-120 days prior to expiration. I have A LOT of call options (all long), and my plan is to roll them out another 2 years as it gets to that 3-month point before expiration. I believe we're in the beginning of a hockey stick inflection point on the chart. In 3-4 years, I'll probably return to all common stock and start trimming.
What would you guys do with Dec 27 $50 calls?
If you're trying to time it, I think we see $135-140 then a retrace to $115 sometime in February, BUT that is pure speculation. The smart decision is to hold and sell and roll out around late August. That coincides with earnings report in early August.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/11/26 at 9:42 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:2-4 months out?! That’s still super risky. Theta destroys premium at an accelerated rate. Macro events are unpredictable and unforgiving.
March and May near the money
Investors (or rather gamblers) who bought near the money call options this time last year with expiratory dates in March and or May 2025 would tell you don’t do it. This time last year, no one was predicting a huge selloff 60-90 days later.
re: Best King Cakes in Lafayette area…
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/10/26 at 3:45 pm to marcnbc
Go to Costco and get a Caluda's if they have it in stock. That is the most traditional king cake in Lafayette, IMO. Great Harvest close second.
Keller's is very good, but it is a pastry king cake if that's your thing.
Do not step foot in Meche's. Yuck.
Keller's is very good, but it is a pastry king cake if that's your thing.
Do not step foot in Meche's. Yuck.
re: Venture Global NYSE Release
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/8/26 at 6:10 pm to DiamondDog
Hopefully, this isn’t Tellurian 2.0
re: ASTS, meme stock or real stock?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/7/26 at 1:18 pm to Fat Bastard
quote:
so it is not too late if i wanna get back in?
My plan has been and will continue to be buying under $250. I firmly believe ASTS will hit $500 by 2029. I've been following them since January 2024 when it was trading in the $4-6 range. Remember, they only have 6 BlueBirds in orbit, and they plan on having 60 by the end of the year, with more satellites to deploy in 2027 and 2028. Revenue hasn't even started to stream in yet. They have definitive agreements with AT&T, Verizon, Bell, Rakuten, STC, and Vodafone.
Today is just noise. A big nothingburger. My friend texted me a couple hours ago in a frenzy. It's funny how sentiment changes so quickly.
Monday, Jan 5... "ASTS is $88!"
Wednesday, Jan 7..."ASTS is $88! WTF!"
Commons and LEAPS is the way to go with this. Stay the course. $120 by end of January.
re: ASTS, meme stock or real stock?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/6/26 at 10:15 am to jefforize
See my previous post on previous page. ASTS heading towards $130-140 by end of month then a pullback to $105-110 before ripping to $160+.
re: Time to load up on O&G stocks?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/6/26 at 8:22 am to saintforlife1
Is anyone still buying OXY? It’s attractive around $40.
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/5/26 at 6:54 pm to NaturalBeam
I can’t buy on Vanguard, but just found out I can buy on my Webull account that I haven’t opened since 2021. I have $2k in that account…yes or no?
re: Rouse's Coming to Hattiesburg, MS
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/5/26 at 7:49 am to AlwysATgr
I flipped perception on Rouses after they built a new store on Camellia in Lafayette. The nearest one to me before that was in Youngsville. It is a huge store. The produce was hit or miss, but everything else was fine. The layout is kind of aggravating because it is so big. My wife and I preferred shopping at Albertson's because it had better produce and the layout was easier to navigate.
Once they opened the Camellia store, we haven't stepped foot in Albertson's. That is a BEAUTIFUL store with excellent produce. The layout is perfect. And prices have consistently been very reasonable, with many items cheaper than other stores.
Once they opened the Camellia store, we haven't stepped foot in Albertson's. That is a BEAUTIFUL store with excellent produce. The layout is perfect. And prices have consistently been very reasonable, with many items cheaper than other stores.
re: Lafayette area
Posted by Crescent Connection on 1/1/26 at 12:18 pm to Sull
Should be able to find a decent $350k house off Verot between Pinhook and Ambassador. There's some neighborhoods off Tolson Rd going towards Broussard/Youngsville that might fit his criteria. I would avoid anything north of Robley Rd towards Johnston. Too much traffic and not as nice.
There's a couple neighborhoods off Kaliste Saloom near River Ranch that may have homes at that price point (Loxley/Beadle).
There's a couple neighborhoods off Kaliste Saloom near River Ranch that may have homes at that price point (Loxley/Beadle).
re: Does anyone think a rotation to international and small-caps started last year?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/30/25 at 6:31 am to ghost2most
Rebalanced my 403(b) yesterday to 50% large cap/growth, 30% small/mid cap, and 20% international. I was roughly 65% large cap/growth before that. I'll allocate future contributions to reflect current position sizes, then probably flip back heavy (70%) to large-cap/growth in 12-18 months. We'll see in 2 years if this was a smart or bad decision. The valuations for large/mid/small/international seem like they SHOULD flip cycles as far as ROI.
re: Is LSU really as ghetto as it seems in videos?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/28/25 at 7:57 pm to theliontamer
I have one in high school currently and she is a huge LSU fan. Unfortunately, if the current admission trend continues, she will not apply there. LSU needs to fix its image and turn course quickly before it’s too late.
re: call your shot(s); winners for 2026
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/27/25 at 3:33 pm to cgrand
PATH intrigues me.
PRME
ASTS
PRME
ASTS
re: ASTS, meme stock or real stock?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/24/25 at 10:14 am to LChama
If I had to guess, there was still a large short position as of last week. I would assume MMs are driving the price down today, and you’ll see short covering in stacks the next few trading days. $80 is the new floor. Last nights’ successful launch is a major de-risk event. Stay the course.
re: ASTS, meme stock or real stock?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/23/25 at 10:33 pm to Crescent Connection
BB6 in orbit!
re: ASTS, meme stock or real stock?
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/22/25 at 9:15 am to The Boat
BlueBird 6 launching tomorrow night. BlueBird 7 was en route to Cape Canaveral as of yesterday. AST Spacemobile reiterates that they are track to launch 45-60 satellites by end of 2026. Golden Dome contracts imminent.
If you plan on playing with options, I would advise to purchase calls at least 1 year out and ITM or slightly OTM. While I believe that ASTS will more than double in 2026, macro events can kill the premium on short-dated calls. If anyone followed the NBIS thread the last 3-5 months, they got decimated because they were purchasing calls with expiratory dates less than 3 months out, which is insane.
I believe ASTS will reach $120-130 by late January, retrace to $95-100, then head back to $140-150 by May. This is speculation based on previous waves and retraces ASTS has seen since July.
If you plan on playing with options, I would advise to purchase calls at least 1 year out and ITM or slightly OTM. While I believe that ASTS will more than double in 2026, macro events can kill the premium on short-dated calls. If anyone followed the NBIS thread the last 3-5 months, they got decimated because they were purchasing calls with expiratory dates less than 3 months out, which is insane.
I believe ASTS will reach $120-130 by late January, retrace to $95-100, then head back to $140-150 by May. This is speculation based on previous waves and retraces ASTS has seen since July.
re: Strabismus surgery as an adult
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/16/25 at 4:19 pm to saderade
I tilt my head when driving to compensate for the deviation. That's about it.
re: Strabismus surgery as an adult
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/16/25 at 2:56 pm to guttata
My vision is fine. I do not wear glasses or prisms.
Strabismus surgery as an adult
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/16/25 at 2:35 pm
Anyone hear had strabismus surgery as an adult? Satisfied with the results? I had an eye injury as a 9-10 year old (rock kicking up from a string trimmer). It was a very mild injury, but resulted in my left eye deviating up and to the right if I try to focus on distant objects. It never bothered me until recently. Family, friends, and coworkers don't notice it until I mention it. Saw Dr. Piccione here in Lafayette last week and he recommends surgery, which involves snipping some eye muscle to restore alignment. Trying to figure out if it's worth the risk. It's generally a successful surgery and a quick procedure (20 minutes).
re: Avo is closing December 23
Posted by Crescent Connection on 12/15/25 at 12:12 pm to SammyTiger
Just got the email. Their lasagna is my favorite dish in the city. I live in Lafayette, so doubt I can make it in time for one more meal.
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