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Jax-Tiger
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | Vero Beach, FL |
| Biography: | Graduated from LSU in '86 |
| Interests: | LSU Football, Basketball, and Baseball |
| Occupation: | Technical Consultant |
| Number of Posts: | 27397 |
| Registered on: | 1/30/2005 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
quote:
Who has successful experience managing startups or new product development?
Nobody. If they get a contract for 1000 tons of graphene, there will be a lot of top notch people who would love to come to work for a startup with this kind of potential.
They dont need that kind of expertise, yet. They are probably talking to the consulting firms who do have that expertise, though, and may lining people up...
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Here's where we disagree. And it's not about what they say or promise, but what they do. Given what we know about HGRAF's opportunity and Hyperion technology, their manufacturing plan as it's being executed today makes little sense.
I don't think they plan to start building Hyperions to get ahead of production. Because the Hyperions can be build relatively cheaply and quickly, they are going to go at a modest rate, and increase the speed of their scale up as needed.
They are planning to keep their capex low by paying for additional Hyperions with the profits from the units that are already operational. If each Hyperion pays for itself within a couple of months, then they shouldn't have to dilute or overextend themselves on the financing. It's possible that this approach could cause a bottleneck because of the limited number of Hyperions they can build at one time. Fortunately, they have a monopoly on the fractal graphene, and customers may not have a choice but to wait.
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by Jax-Tiger on 3/6/26 at 4:05 pm to JperiodCperiod
quote:
I too am concerned with the leadership, not that any of them have said anything to turn me off. They all seem genuine, knowledgeable and have a vision. But I also haven’t seen where they’ve managed a large production facility and operations. Also they haven’t announced a larger order of Hyperion units following the close of the offering.
I have said the same in this thread. These guys are all experts in graphene and it's uses. They are NOT experts in scaling it up and running a production facility. They need to bring that expertise on board. If they get a large order and need more hyperions, I am sure they will bring the people on board. At this point in time, they are doing what they know, which is to show people how to use graphene.
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Out of curiosity, why are you invested in HGRAF if it's not because you see favorable the probability that demand for specialty graphene going from zero to 100 mph quickly and HGRAF's Hyperion technology?
Oh, I believe in the technology. I just don't see it as a "get rich quick" scheme. I interpreted that the zero to 100 mph was that it would make everyone rich in a few months. I mean, it could, but I think it will take time, IMO. I look at it more as a gradual acceleration. I could be wrong and it will bust out overnight. The only scenario where I see that happening is if the US government decides to by billions worth of the stuff.
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you know who is acting like the Hyperion process is still risky? HGRAF is.
And they should be. Under promise and over deliver. What happens to the stock price if they start saying they are going to have 20,000 tons of orders by the end of the year and 2,000 Hyperions in place, and they don't deliver that? They will get hammered and there will be huge pressure to dump the management team for someone who can execute better.
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Do you think this is even a possibility when HGRAF has 20 tpa capacity?
Remote possibility. Can they fill 10,000 tons of orders? No. But they could have a backlog. Tesla could sign up for graphene for their 2030 Obsidian EV (hypothetical name) and if they order 5000 tons for 2028, other companies may want to jump in and get contracts in to save their spot in line or risk getting shut out for years.
If HGRAF can get future contracts, the price of the stock will skyrocket. Of course, HGRAF will have to execute on scaling up, which is also a difficult task.
This is one of those, "Please make it make sense" times with the market. NBIS announces a 1.2GW project getting approved, and is added to the Bloomberg 500 index. Down 8 bucks a share.
It is announced that Coreweave is being investigated for fraud and investors who have substantial losses are urged to submit their losses for possible refunds. CRWV loses 2 bucks a share. Hell, CRWV was UP for most of the day until the Oracle/OpenAI news hit...
ETA: at least my April options are green...
It is announced that Coreweave is being investigated for fraud and investors who have substantial losses are urged to submit their losses for possible refunds. CRWV loses 2 bucks a share. Hell, CRWV was UP for most of the day until the Oracle/OpenAI news hit...
ETA: at least my April options are green...
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by Jax-Tiger on 3/6/26 at 2:35 pm to bayoubengals88
Is NBIS involved in that?
So it's another indirect hit. If one AI company shats the bed, they all get dragged down...
Couldn't this become an opportunity for NBIS?
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Why NBIS just plummeted:
So it's another indirect hit. If one AI company shats the bed, they all get dragged down...
Couldn't this become an opportunity for NBIS?
I haven't been doing much in the options, but just bought some $95c contracts with an expiry in April for $5.76.
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Most of us invested in HGRAF because we’ve been sold on two ideas: 1) demand for pure/specialty graphene will go from zero to 100 mph quickly, and 2) HGRAF is uniquely positioned to address burgeoning demand because it can produce the purity required for these value added apps and has the Hyperion manufacturing process.
I haven't bought it because of those two ideas.
1.) For the first point, we don't know what the demand is, or who is going to demand it. This is a new field. I bought on the idea that the DoW and DoE would be huge customers and that graphene would be huge in the area of plastics, concrete, steel, and electronics. But the demand for graphene in those area is almost ZERO right now, because there is no commercially viable graphene on the market. Will the demand materialize? It should, but it could take a while for people to figure out how to use it. I bought on the hope that it will, but I've said it before, I would like to see the price hit $20/share by the end of the year. I think that's fair. I bought in at $1, so that's a 20 bagger by the end of 2026, if we hit that. That's damn good.
2.) As far as we know, HGRAF is the purest graphene on the market and is cheap to produce. From all indications, the Hyperions work fine and the graphene is 99.8% pure. That's not the issue. The issue is, how much are people going to buy? Maybe the customers don't materialize for 5 years. Maybe it takes 5 years for the stock price to reach $100. Maybe that happens this year.
Look, this is a speculative stock. It is NOT a sure thing, otherwise, it wouldn't be trading for $6/share. It would already be trading for $100. The good news is that the Hyperion process has been approved and that changes the risk situation for the better.
This is a new company and they can't just contract out to build 1000 Hyperion machines. They have to hire and train people to use them. This isn't putting square pegs in square holes. These Hyperion machines use a highly flammable gas and there are a lot of risks. They have to take caution. They need logistics to classify, package, store, bill, and ship their product. This will all take time.
Does this mean it's going to take 5 years for the price to reach $100/share? It might. Even if it does, that's a helluva return. However, i think that the stock price is going to react to the backlog of orders. I think producing the graphene is something they can control. Having a backlog of demand for a product that you can conceivably make as much as you want, is a pretty damn good position to be in. If they get 10,000 tons worth of backlog by the end of this year, I suspect the price will hit $100 by then.
The other thing I wanted to say is that the management has always been cautious about not over promising. I think they are holding their cards close to the vest and taking the position of underpromising and over delivering. We've seen what the opposite can do to a stock price. It's Kevin Bambrough that's making wild claims about the stock price hitting $1000/share...
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by Jax-Tiger on 3/6/26 at 11:25 am to Swamp puppy
quote:
You may be right, but... His tweets are probably helping hold the price where it is, which is good for my stomach.
I think the HGRAF folks have a good reason to keep the price high. They may be keeping the gas line contract close to the vest so that they have a card to play if the price threatens to go below $4. You know they will throw something out there to keep the price up if it comes to that.
Once they have customers on hand, then it will be fine. They can start announcing contracts. If they are small contracts, they can always say that the bigger ones are on the way, once they increase production.
If ONE of those 1000+ ton customers signs up, this thing is off to the races, IMO.
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Here’s a picture of my portfolio today with HGRAF.
Me, too.
Don't get too comfortable, though. The sell off before the weekend may be pretty spectacular, given the volatility this week...
ETA: I think we could end up like this:
Anybody else getting those ads for an insurance app - you know, the one the insurance companies dont want you to know about?
They usually show some guy who owns a Lambo being asked what he pays for insurance for the Lambo, and he replies, "I used to pay $750/mnth, but I discovered this secret app, and now I only pay $29/mnth!".
Anyway, I suspect that I will be bombed with spam at the very least, if I click on that link...
They usually show some guy who owns a Lambo being asked what he pays for insurance for the Lambo, and he replies, "I used to pay $750/mnth, but I discovered this secret app, and now I only pay $29/mnth!".
Anyway, I suspect that I will be bombed with spam at the very least, if I click on that link...
Hopefully Iran folds like a cheap umbrella over the weekend...
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for long holders, it’s not worth trying to time the ups/downs considering where they think its heading.
If you are thinking you're going to sell at $10/share, then it's probably worth it to try and time it, looking for a quick profit.
If you are looking to wait a year or two, the difference is probably insignifican in the profit per share, but it could be significant in the total profit, because it can affect the number of shares. But effectively, will there be a difference between 50x profit or 51x? Is that extra bit worth missing the boat all together while waiting for a dip?
Lot of folks on here missed out at $1, but jumped in at $5.50 - being happy that they caught the dip down from $6. The folks that got in at $1 took a big risk and are trying to catch lightning in a bottle. The ones who got in at $5.50 are more conservative, taking advantage of the derisking that EPA approval brought us. Some people bought in at $1 AND $5.50, and every point in between.
I sure do hope this goes to the moon...
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by Jax-Tiger on 3/6/26 at 7:30 am to Swamp puppy
quote:
They will be located in the heart of where things are made of carbon steel like quaker makes oatmeal. These vessels don't look hard to make, and fabricators and welders are a dime a dozen in the greater Houston area.
I have no doubt that they can expedite this, but a lot of this is brand new. It takes more than just building Hyperions. They need people to operate these machines, processes to create, process, package, ship, and track all of the graphene. They need people to maintain the equipment. They need an HR department.
It's not a matter of if they can, but if they should. This could become a total cluster fricking if they don't manage it properly.
Im happy if they tap the brakes and take it slow in order to get it right. As I understand it, the initial orders will all be for the base product while they develop their processes and get a cadence going.
re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted by Jax-Tiger on 3/6/26 at 6:50 am to bayoubengals88
NBIS is being added to the Bloomberg 500 Index next week. More demand inbound....
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by Jax-Tiger on 3/6/26 at 6:46 am to NaturalBeam
quote:
Also, Kerry said in his recent interview that they’re talking to 5-7 potential customers who would need in the 1000 tonnage…
HGRAF doesn't have the capacity for that, but it would be nice to see a huge backlog, because that can drive prices up and this stock could act like a tech stock with regard to valuation.
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Capital not an issue, why couldn't they have 1500 units operating sometime in 2027?
It's possible, but I just dont think its likely. They dont have room for that many units, for one, so they would need to get additional buildings and additional gas lines run.
They have spoken about being able to build 10 units at the same time and it takes two or three months to build them. At a rate of 10 every 2 months, they could build 60 in a year. Obviously, they would have to figure out how to increase that build rate.
re: Spec Play - HGRAF
Posted by Jax-Tiger on 3/5/26 at 11:14 am to tiggerthetooth
quote:
Shes not going to talk details, shes branding.
Adam Taggert has said something to the effect that he wants her back to discuss details in a second interview. I think people who listened to this interview will want more.
I don't believe we're disagreeing on where the revenue is coming from. I am just saying that they may announce that the government is "investing" in graphene, or plans to buy 5000 tons of graphene, which obviously fits your timeline of a couple years down the road. We know they are already testing with government agencies - DoE and DoW.
HGRAF is NOT capable of filling contracts for 1000's of tons now, or next year. That doesn't mean that they can't announce intentions of using graphene in new projects over the next 5 years. An announcement like that would be a huge boon to the stock price.
If we are going to price this stock based on current sales, then it is probably way overpriced, since we'll only produce less then 200 tons his year. The stock is going to rise on future sales, which we'll see through LOIs, POs, and Hyperions being built.
I would like to see Tesla, the DoW, and DoE all lining up to buy 1000s of tons in 2028 by getting there spot in line early for product that won't be available for another 2 years. That's all I'm saying.
HGRAF is NOT capable of filling contracts for 1000's of tons now, or next year. That doesn't mean that they can't announce intentions of using graphene in new projects over the next 5 years. An announcement like that would be a huge boon to the stock price.
If we are going to price this stock based on current sales, then it is probably way overpriced, since we'll only produce less then 200 tons his year. The stock is going to rise on future sales, which we'll see through LOIs, POs, and Hyperions being built.
I would like to see Tesla, the DoW, and DoE all lining up to buy 1000s of tons in 2028 by getting there spot in line early for product that won't be available for another 2 years. That's all I'm saying.
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I just know that I hate the way she handled that interview and it is making me nervous.
That interview was done during the quiet period while the $30M offering was still open.
Adam Taggart specifically said the interview was going to be centered on graphene and its uses, not Hydrograph's plans for the future.
I think these next few weeks are going to be important regarding announcements. I agree that the real revenue, should it materialize is a couple of years away, as they only plan to have 35 Hyperions by year end - 350 tons of capacity. Maybe, by the end of 2027, they will have enough capacity to produce 2000 tons.
That doesn't mean that the stock cant hit triple digits in 2027. If they have long term contracts to sell 1000s every year, this could blow up. If there is no demand, we'll probably know, and do what we need to do.
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defense contracts are years away.
The big ones, for sure, because they are 2 years from having the capacity to produce thousands of tons needed for fortifying the amount of our military.
But, it would be great to get some small ones, in the mean time, or to have the DoW just announce that they are looking investing in graphene, just like they have with rare earth minerals.
There is a snowball's chance in hell that Hegseth would show up in person, but any talk by military folks about using graphene going forward would boost the stock.
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