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aggiegeog
| Favorite team: | Texas A&M  |
| Location: | Tyler, TX |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | Weather, Sports |
| Occupation: | GIS Developer |
| Number of Posts: | 51 |
| Registered on: | 2/1/2013 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Forum
Message
re: Tejas Snow/Ice Storm: 2022 Edition (Wednesday Night and Thursday expected timing)
Posted by aggiegeog on 2/1/22 at 3:16 pm to RummelTiger
Precip wise this is worse, cold wise no about 5 to 10 degrees warmer. Overall impacts in northern Texas are different but similar.
2
re: Tejas Snow/Ice Storm: 2022 Edition (Wednesday Night and Thursday expected timing)
Posted by aggiegeog on 2/1/22 at 3:16 pm to RummelTiger
Precip wise this is worse, cold wise no about 5 to 10 degrees warmer. Overall impacts in northern Texas are different but similar.
re: Tejas Snow/Ice Storm: 2022 Edition (Wednesday Night and Thursday expected timing)
Posted by aggiegeog on 2/1/22 at 2:14 pm to goldennugget
Eh, roads being iced over for 4 to 5 days and possible widespread power issues from downed lines is major and something we have not seen in this area in quite some time. Hoping that it turns into a sleet and heavy snow event instead which is possible for DFW, but that means worse icing for Central and East Texas. I think people are very justified in wanting to be prepared. Lows in the single digits will make for uncomfortable nights if you don't have power.
re: Tejas Snow/Ice Storm: 2022 Edition (Wednesday Night and Thursday expected timing)
Posted by aggiegeog on 2/1/22 at 12:00 am to Impotent Waffle
I expect Longview to be very borderline on significant icing. I am leaning towards only light icing there Thursday starting around 6am Thursday. Light icing still means travel is to be avoided but power concerns are not likely. Further west towards Tyler icing will be much worse. This could all change if the freeze line progress faster.
That is a pretty solid representation of what I am thinking. Potential for Dec 2013 type storm but more widespread and colder with it being Feb.
I am anxious to see what hi res show on Tuesday once the system is onshore and well sampled. Not sure we get much additional useful info until then. For now my forecasts will be based primarily on experience. Ridging on both coasts and a 1050mb Arctic high mean storms will track south. I can't get over how insane the amount of moisture will be overtop of the Arctic air.
re: Tejas Snow/Ice Storm: 2022 Edition (Wednesday Night and Thursday expected timing)
Posted by aggiegeog on 1/30/22 at 9:38 pm to LegendInMyMind
GFS has seemed to have a good handle on this event for a while. Op and ensembles are very consistent. Other models are all over the place though ICON also pretty solid.
So much depends on how far SW the main upper shortwave/upper low tracks. Models now have it digging to around or north of El Paso. If it buries itself down deeper into Mexico then things change a good bit. If it does dig a bit deeper into Mexico you will see near blizzard conditions locally across North Texas but if it tracks north of EP then N TX may be a freezing rain and sleet mess. Us in East Texas could see a very nasty ice storm per the current GFS track. Midday Thu right now shows low 20s with heavy rain. Pwats over 1 with temps in 20s is pretty wild.
This is very true, here in East Texas we made it down to -8 last Feb because of a foot of snow on the ground.
I'll try to post more. I may be in a very bad spot assuming further SE trends being near Tyler. We could see hours of sleet that will occasionally be heavy. That intense negative tilt trough could lead to strong thunderstorms where temps are in the 20s.Could we see severe TS warnings in the cold air? DFW could be in line for occasional blizzard conditions. Then Friday morning could be single digits and even below 0 across North Texas. This won't melt quick either with days below freezing through the weekend likely.
For a smaller area it could be much worse though if forecasts hold. I think the area northwest of a Waco to Texarkana line could see 2013 level impacts with over an inch of liquid equivalent with temps in the teens and 20s. Roads will be very bad and power lines could fail across a wide region. I don't think this will be an event that causes rolling blackouts though. Several inches of ice/sleet and some snow to insulate with temps below freezing into early the following week. The trailing storm that is possible over the weekend will only make things worse. Thunderstorms with temps near 20 will be very interesting.
Last few runs of GFS have a big Texas winter storm on Saturday. Within 150 hours it has to be taken seriously. All depends on if the Great Lakes ridge holds on and amplifies the SW lobe of the main big trough. It's gonna be a very active 3 or 4 weeks in the ArLaTex region with numerous shots of cold and moisture. -ENSO going away, very slow MJO entering P8, -EPO. Winter weather lovers dream but some -NAO blocking would help slow the flow down. May even get AO to bomb negative if SSW does it's job but that is hard to project.
re: Dining in Taos, NM
Posted by aggiegeog on 12/27/21 at 10:09 pm to Zappas Stache
I'll second Guadalajara and Orlando's both are great. A lot of very good to great restaurants for a small town. Not sure either beats Chimayo though if you travel between Santa Fe and Taos on the High Road.
Looks like pretty much all snow with some loss in the ratios due to the warm nose some sleet would likely mix in.
It's gonna be a wild week or so in DFW with several rounds of ice before the snow starts Sunday. Could be some significant icing for northern DFW this week. Then significant snow on top next Sunday/Monday. Another round or two of frozen precip later in the week. All of this with very cold temperatures that could bottom out in the single digits next week with rural areas possibly going below 0.
GFS Para is back online as of 12Z and it is showing massive snow for northern TX and N LA on Monday. Between the 2 runs this area looks to get 6 to 20 inch of snow. GFS is snowy but more like 3 to 7 inches. Euro and ICON are 3 to 7 but only northern TX with nothing in LA. Canadian shows only a couple inches for northern TX. Euro and GFS ensembles nearly unanimously show good snow for northern TX and spottier for N LA.
Temps are busting way low today in N TX as they did yesterday in OK. Freezing drizzle is beginning to cause road issues in north Texas. Here in E TX yesterday NWS had us at 60 today and tomorrow. It's 39 here already. The main cold is still way up in northern Canada and Alaska so the cold will be building for another week. DFW is looking at around 250 hours below freezing. The record is 295 hours in Dec 1983.
re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*
Posted by aggiegeog on 2/8/21 at 6:59 am to NorthEndZone
The ICON has been consistent in showing near all time record cold in Texas. It has been the most consistent model for this outbreak. I am going with a blend of GFS and ICON for my forecast. I expect the GFS to start going wacky though and the Euro to take its place over the next 48 hours. This looks like single digits for the I-20 corridor with isolated sub zero temps in rural areas of N and NE TX this weekend. In NW TX I expect much below 0 temps.
Reliable models are indicating 6 to 12 inches of snow for areas south of I-20 in Texas. GFS is terrible with surface temperatures within an Arctic air mass so I give it little weight in these type scenarios.
re: Southern Snow 1/10
Posted by aggiegeog on 1/7/21 at 7:02 am to East Coast Band
Well us in Texas very pumped for the biggest storm since 2010. Huge area generally along I-20 look to get over 6 inches with isolated amounts over a foot where convective storms persist. Looks to one for the record books especially in southern North Texas and East Texas.
re: Sweet 16 Best SEC Quarterbacks ever
Posted by aggiegeog on 4/8/20 at 9:47 am to Harry Rex Vonner
Cam versus Tua!
YA Tittle versus 15 seed Johnny Manziel
Joe Burrow versus Old Ball Coach Steve Spurrier!
Dak Prescott v Eli Manning
Peyton versus Fran Tarkenton and Matt Stafford combined
Pat Sullivan versus Joe Namath
Bart Starr versus Tommy Hodson
Tim Couch versus Tim Tebow
YA Tittle versus 15 seed Johnny Manziel
Joe Burrow versus Old Ball Coach Steve Spurrier!
Dak Prescott v Eli Manning
Peyton versus Fran Tarkenton and Matt Stafford combined
Pat Sullivan versus Joe Namath
Bart Starr versus Tommy Hodson
Tim Couch versus Tim Tebow
I'll be travelling from Tyler to Houston next week. I may need to do so by boat. Thankfully up here in the Tyler area we have not had the flooding issues yet. The tornadoes and straight line winds did a lot of damage all over E TX though.
Damn, sucks.
It was a surprisingly eventful storm back in Texas also with tons of flooding and a tornado in Bryan and a possible tornado in the Gilmer area along with the long tracked one that affected Ruston starting around San Augustine on the TX side of Toledo Bend.
It was a surprisingly eventful storm back in Texas also with tons of flooding and a tornado in Bryan and a possible tornado in the Gilmer area along with the long tracked one that affected Ruston starting around San Augustine on the TX side of Toledo Bend.
A lot of the issues upper air data is generally only collect twice a day and the grid of that data collection is very coarse. And it is almost non existent over the oceans except from airplanes. Until we have better upper air data over the Pacific forecasting individual storm systems out more than a few days over the US is very problematic. Now large scale changes are much simpler to forecast at longer ranges. Such as the flip to a colder pattern for the E 2/3 of the US that is coming in a couple weeks has been forecasted since before Christmas. Individual storms are another matter as many are just a ripple over Asia a week out from impacting the southern US.
NWS for forecasts, MyRadar for radar, WUnderground is good for current/historical weather reports from personal weather stations, ATs Weather is great for severe weather (plus his videos are great if you live in TX or OK) and mPING is great for tracking precip type live based on reports from users. If you want accurate weather forecasts beyond a couple days you either need to learn how to read weather model output and find a good weather forum for your location (Storm2k, American Weather, etc).
re: Is Dallas really 107 degrees during day this week?
Posted by aggiegeog on 7/21/18 at 12:24 pm to chef tiger
The all time record for Dallas is 113 and for Waco it is 112 so I think you saying 110 every day is very embellished. Maybe 105 sporadically, but 110 is once a decade type heat wave. Now 1105 to 110 is happens more frequently out towards Vernon. Thankfully when it gets this hot the heat index is lower than the air temp because the humidity is about 25%.
I find the Norwegian heat wave even more impressive though along the Arctic coast of northern Norway they had a low of 77 and high of 90 a couple days ago with highs near 90.for days now.
I find the Norwegian heat wave even more impressive though along the Arctic coast of northern Norway they had a low of 77 and high of 90 a couple days ago with highs near 90.for days now.
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Increasing chances of ice/light snow flurries Tuesday afternoon
Posted by aggiegeog on 1/14/18 at 6:48 am to GEAUXmedic
This is looking like a light but significant event for me in East Texas. Rain changing to snow by late tomorrow evening and snow continues into Tuesday afternoon. I am looking at 1-3" with localized bands getting more. Temps in the mid 20s during the event with winds gusting to around 25 mph. Excited for a nice fluffy snow. Planning on working from home most of the week after tomorrow, maybe all week if the next round on Thursday pans out.
Dallas has had snow in October and def in November. Most recently November 2014.
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted by aggiegeog on 12/15/17 at 7:25 am to RummelTiger
quote:We have a cabin between Mora and Taos near Sipapu.
Where you heading to? We’ll be in Red River...
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted by aggiegeog on 12/14/17 at 8:21 pm to RummelTiger
quote:Same here hoping to head to NM late Christmas or early the 26th. Hoping for good snow but clear roads on the way. Not looking good for travel weather though.
I need that shite in, then out... Heading to New Mexico on the 26th.
Everyone should use the mPING app to report wintery precip
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