- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Tom Lee (Fundstrat Global Advisors) - Bottom in July, Strong 4thQ, S&P to Hit 5100
Posted on 7/8/22 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 7/8/22 at 12:01 pm
Just on CNBC. The guy has been spot on in his calls for a couple of years.
VIDEO LINK
• Makes a good case for soft landing here with a strong recovery in the back half.
• Looks for a recession in Europe to create tech headwinds, but expects tech to rebound despite that.
• Expects gas prices to fall slightly despite tight oil supply. Food inventories building should pressure prices downward.
• S&P 5100 target in 2023 Q1.
Good interview. Replay will probably hit CNBC.com/YT in a day or two.
LINK
* Edited to add video
VIDEO LINK
• Makes a good case for soft landing here with a strong recovery in the back half.
• Looks for a recession in Europe to create tech headwinds, but expects tech to rebound despite that.
• Expects gas prices to fall slightly despite tight oil supply. Food inventories building should pressure prices downward.
• S&P 5100 target in 2023 Q1.
Good interview. Replay will probably hit CNBC.com/YT in a day or two.
LINK
* Edited to add video
This post was edited on 7/9/22 at 7:30 pm
11
Posted on 7/8/22 at 12:11 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
No link, just on CNBC. The guy has been spot on in his calls for a couple of years.
He's a bull, and we've been in a bull market. He should have been spot on for the last 15 years.
Posted on 7/8/22 at 12:25 pm to NC_Tigah
I believe he made that 5100 S&P prediction at the start of the year, and is just sticking with it now. It's not so much based on recent trends.
He's already admitted things got much worse than he predicted, which as the above poster noted, will always be true in a bear market with him.
He's already admitted things got much worse than he predicted, which as the above poster noted, will always be true in a bear market with him.
Posted on 7/8/22 at 12:36 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
• S&P 5100 target in 2023 Q1.
So a 30% increase in the S&P over the next < 9 months
Posted on 7/8/22 at 12:40 pm to j1897
quote:Negative.
He's a bull, and we've been in a bull market
He called the downturn.
Posted on 7/8/22 at 12:43 pm to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:Didn't fully factor the PotatoBrain effect. Nonetheless, he called the downturn.
He's already admitted things got much worse than he predicted,
Posted on 7/8/22 at 1:13 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Makes a good case for soft landing here with a strong recovery in the back half.
If we hadn't had the extra COVID bonus to social programs, we wouldn't have nearly the economic problems we have now.
When Unemployment starts rising in the coming months, I fully expect this President and Congress to attempt to ram through permanent increases in social program benefits (using rising Unemployment and continued high prices as their foundation to argue from). Whether it makes it through or not is another issue.
He retweeted this: "“An American economy in free fall does not tend to produce 372,000 jobs on any given month." This completely ignores the jump in new jobless claims which came out earlier today.
quote:
Expects gas prices to fall slightly despite tight oil supply. Food inventories building should pressure prices downward.
He also uses the included chart to underscore his belief in a "'soft landing' more than recession narrative". Is he basing his oil expectation on lowered demand due to extended high prices? That would be about the only thing which makes sense but that also has other ramifications (rising unemployment due to less purchasing/travel/etc).
As for food inventories... how are those going to build? Biden just increased the ethanol mandate by 50% (which means less acreage going toward produce consumable by humans and more field corn being sold to refineries instead of going toward livestock). Ukraine's harvest from last year is (literally) rotting at the dock, Russia's grain is being blackballed (although it wouldn't shock me to find China and/or India purchasing it on the side) and Ukraine still can't plant because of their ongoing war (meaning there will likely be nothing to harvest this year).
The world isn't losing population (at least as far as anyone knows), so how is supply going to build up if it's being hampered?
quote:
S&P 5100 target in 2023 Q1.
There's absolutely nothing involving the drivers currently killing our economy, other than the Fed raising rates, to support most of this speculation.
Posted on 7/8/22 at 2:15 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
The guy has been spot on in his calls for a couple of years.
He’s been wrong for six straight months. He’s a perma bull
Posted on 7/8/22 at 2:32 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Nonetheless, he called the downturn.
Not exactly calling a downturn here
I agree that Biden's policies haven't been a positive on the economy or market, but by the time he made these comments Biden had been in office a full year. He should know better.
This post was edited on 7/8/22 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 7/8/22 at 2:48 pm to Bard
quote:
When Unemployment starts rising in the coming months
You sure about that? Numbers are looking quite Strong but hey if you say so.
This post was edited on 7/8/22 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 7/8/22 at 3:18 pm to Bard
quote:
He retweeted this: "“An American economy in free fall does not tend to produce 372,000 jobs on any given month."
Rising unemployment is a lagging indicator too. The covid recession was unique.
Also, the labor market staying this strong is not great for risk as it gives the Fed runway to continue to tighten hard.
quote:
S&P 5100 target in 2023 Q1.
I want some of what he's smoking. Calling bottom? Fine. But I don't see how we rip this hard to all time highs in 6 months in these conditions. Odds of this are very low IMO
Posted on 7/8/22 at 3:32 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Didn't fully factor the PotatoBrain effect. Nonetheless, he called the downturn.
That potato still has some dumb economic tricks up his sleeve, but after January he should be in hobbles or handcuffs.
Posted on 7/8/22 at 3:53 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Tom Lee
Always long 2 things:
1) Stock Market
2) Astroglide
Posted on 7/8/22 at 4:56 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Expects gas prices to fall slightly despite tight oil supply.
Biden and his gaggle of leftist eco-hens want to shutdown fracking in the Permian Basin. Fracking in the Permian Basin produces around 40% of our domestic oil.
Is he dumb enough to do it?
Posted on 7/8/22 at 6:18 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
S&P 5100 target in 2023 Q1
The market's strength the past 12+ years has been due in large part to "quantitative easing" - $80B/month - close to $1T/year - being printed and pumped into the economy, plus interest rates near zero.
That source of "economic growth" is ending simultaneous with "quantitative tightening" - turning off the ~$1T/year of printed money - plus the Fed dramatically raising interest rates.
Calling him a "bull" is faint praise given the conditions he's used to operating in - hell, everybody has made money in the markets for a dozen years - IMHO he's a sunshine pumper - do I hope he's right? Sure. Do I think he's right? Nope.
Prove me wrong.
Posted on 7/8/22 at 6:35 pm to roadkill
So you believe in government driving the economy (socialism)??
Or do you believe that technological advances (zoom, docusign, etc) have driven the free markets aka capitalism?
Or do you believe that technological advances (zoom, docusign, etc) have driven the free markets aka capitalism?
Posted on 7/8/22 at 9:12 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
So you believe in government driving the economy (socialism)??
Hell no!!!! I'm the biggest free-market capitalist you could imagine. I am an advocate for giving the innovative technical and supply-side economic drivers close to free-rein, just this side of anarchy. The 50 years post-WWII (1940s - 1990s) are evidence of what free-market capitalism can accomplish - the US created more wealth and raised the global standard of living more than any government in history - FACT!
What I tried to articulate is the government and Federal Reserve have artificially juiced/manipulated the economy and stock market since the crash 12-14 years ago via an inflationary infusion of freshly printed worthless cash and near zero interest rates. We could have probably continued on that insane course for another decade or so but the China flu and economic shutdown (planned and coordinated by the DNC and CCP to help steal the 2020 election) prompted a massive increase in more worthless currency printing, resulting in the current inflation disaster - politically untenable. The knee-jerk reaction by the government and Fed is to rapidly do two things; 1) decrease new money printing/infusion; 2) jack up interest rates. Understand this - they are only taking these actions to prop up the failing socialist/communist deep state policies and try to salvage the 2024 election for Biden's replacement stooge.
Yellen, Powell, et al aren't stupid - they knew their policies would exacerbate inflation and create this mess - in fact, the Build Back Better bill was designed to completely destroy the economy, enabling truly drastic government seizure and control of the economy and nation (never let a crisis go to waste) - but the leftists had not counted on Manchin and Sinema blocking their over-reach so they have been forced to "retreat" and implement a more incremental approach.
Longer answer than the "question" you asked but I get wound up when there is any chance of a misunderstanding of my core beliefs.
Posted on 7/8/22 at 10:17 pm to NC_Tigah
No one knows what the future holds.
Work hard
Don’t overspend
Save every month
Max out 401k
Don’t get divorced
Work out a few times a week
Do that and you will be just fine
Work hard
Don’t overspend
Save every month
Max out 401k
Don’t get divorced
Work out a few times a week
Do that and you will be just fine
Posted on 7/9/22 at 3:32 pm to FLObserver
quote:
You sure about that?
Yes.
quote:
Numbers are looking quite Strong but hey if you say so.
Sure, if you're looking only at one number, but to see the full picture you need more than just U3. U6 and new jobless claims tell a more complete story.
To touch on what I mentioned earlier, I'll pose it as a question to you...
Specifically, what changes to the drivers of our current economic downturn have happened to create an environment for anything other than continued downward movement?
This post was edited on 7/9/22 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 7/9/22 at 7:14 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
undefined
quote:
• Makes a good case for soft landing here with a strong recovery in the back half.
Dems would love that!
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News