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Bitcoin 4yr Total Return - 49%, S&P500 60%
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:00 am
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:00 am
Was curious so see how they’ve performed since the 2021 crypto run up and was a bit surprised by the results.
I don’t believe there has ever been a 4 year stretch where bitcoin underperformed the broader stock market, but despite a lot of bullish crypto news since then, here we are.
I don’t believe there has ever been a 4 year stretch where bitcoin underperformed the broader stock market, but despite a lot of bullish crypto news since then, here we are.
4
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:21 am to slackster
Show us the math. I'm not seeing it.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:30 am to slackster
If you move your start date back 4 days to March 6th, 2021 then BTC is at 64%. Lots of volatility back in the March 2021 timeframe.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:55 am to hikingfan
quote:
Show us the math. I'm not seeing it.
I see BTC around $55k on 3/10/21 and using $82k today you get 49% return. I was using a weekly chart for S&P500 total return, but even if you grab something like VOO, it’s up 58% over the last 4 years coming into today.
My point isn’t the specific size of any outperformance, it’s just that it happened at all.
I don’t think any bitcoin bull would have believed it at the time…
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:58 am to slackster
Do 5 year
Posted on 3/10/25 at 10:19 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Do 5 year
5 year BTC trounces it. 6yr, 10yr, etc - I get all of that. 4yr captures the last bull market peak though, and while I own crypto to the tune of 5% of my assets, I also think these cycles are going to be much more muted on the high end.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 10:56 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:Yeah, that was the ONE volatile period for bitcoin.
Lots of volatility back in the March 2021 timeframe.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 11:03 am to Shepherd88
Now do bitcoin vs 10 year NVDA.
Why weren't you all smart enough to clamor for NVDA back then?
That's one of my problems with the bitcoin uber -fanboys - they act as if because some smart people wrote some smart sounding stuff that they somehow understand something and further that we should be listening every time something like that happens.
The reality is that some of the smartest people in the world do write ups on stocks every single day - and over time, the vast majority of those DO NOT go up by 100000%.
We all suffer from survivorship bias coloring our thinking, but the bitcoin fellas are among the worst in this regard.
If everyone had just recommended NVDA in 2014, it would have been the easiest-to-execute grand slam of all time. No crazy "offline wallets". No fear of random scams stealing all your shares. Infinitely liquid and extremely low transaction costs. etc.
Why weren't you all smart enough to clamor for NVDA back then?
That's one of my problems with the bitcoin uber -fanboys - they act as if because some smart people wrote some smart sounding stuff that they somehow understand something and further that we should be listening every time something like that happens.
The reality is that some of the smartest people in the world do write ups on stocks every single day - and over time, the vast majority of those DO NOT go up by 100000%.
We all suffer from survivorship bias coloring our thinking, but the bitcoin fellas are among the worst in this regard.
If everyone had just recommended NVDA in 2014, it would have been the easiest-to-execute grand slam of all time. No crazy "offline wallets". No fear of random scams stealing all your shares. Infinitely liquid and extremely low transaction costs. etc.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 11:55 am to Big Scrub TX
I’ve got BTC at 28k% and NVDA at 18k% for 10 yr period…
Posted on 3/10/25 at 12:31 pm to Shepherd88
quote:That's with NVDA down 30% or whatever in the past month or so. The point remains. It's easy to make recommendations. We only know which ones work out whenever they work out.
I’ve got BTC at 28k% and NVDA at 18k% for 10 yr period…
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:02 pm to Big Scrub TX
I would also add that's ironic that a big part of the uplift in NVDA several years back was its cornering of the mining chip market.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:37 pm to slackster
does the S&P return include dividends?
Posted on 3/10/25 at 2:38 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
does the S&P return include dividends
Yes, that’s why I stated total return.
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