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Economic Data 15 Jan
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:41 am
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:41 am
January Empire Manufacturing up to +7.7 vs. +1 est. & -3.7 prior … new orders up to +6.6, prices paid down to +42.8, and shipments up to +16.3 … employment down to -9
—-
January Philadelphia fed
? Manufacturing up to +12.6 vs. -1.4 est. & -10.2 prior … new orders and shipments stronger, prices paid down a bit, and prices received up to highest since October … employment dipped a but still expanding (+9.7 vs. +13 prior)
—-
Initial jobless claims down to 198k vs. 215k est. & 207k prior; continuing claims down to 1.884M vs. 1.897M est. & 1.903M prior … largest increases in TX (+7.9k), CA (+5.5k), & MI (+3.9k); largest decreases in NY (-4.4k), WA (-3k), & OR (-2.8k)
—-
Owners' equivalent rent portion of CPI eased to 3.4% y/y in December ... across regions, Midwest still seeing fastest OER growth while West is seeing slowest
—-
Home price growth is slowing ... as of December, median sale price of existing single-family home increased by 0.24% year/year
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In year/year terms, existing home sales increased by 1.4% in December
—-
Retail sales for restaurants and bars have stabilized, averaging slightly more than 0.2% over past three months
—-
Monthly supply of existing homes moved down sharply to end 2025 … down to 3.3 (vs. last year’s high of 4.7)
—-
December existing home sales +5.1% vs. +2.2% est. & +0.7% prior (rev up from +0.5%) … median sales price +0.4% y/y to $405,400 (weakest gain in 2.5 years)
—-
January Philadelphia fed
? Manufacturing up to +12.6 vs. -1.4 est. & -10.2 prior … new orders and shipments stronger, prices paid down a bit, and prices received up to highest since October … employment dipped a but still expanding (+9.7 vs. +13 prior)
—-
Initial jobless claims down to 198k vs. 215k est. & 207k prior; continuing claims down to 1.884M vs. 1.897M est. & 1.903M prior … largest increases in TX (+7.9k), CA (+5.5k), & MI (+3.9k); largest decreases in NY (-4.4k), WA (-3k), & OR (-2.8k)
—-
Owners' equivalent rent portion of CPI eased to 3.4% y/y in December ... across regions, Midwest still seeing fastest OER growth while West is seeing slowest
—-
Home price growth is slowing ... as of December, median sale price of existing single-family home increased by 0.24% year/year
—-
In year/year terms, existing home sales increased by 1.4% in December
—-
Retail sales for restaurants and bars have stabilized, averaging slightly more than 0.2% over past three months
—-
Monthly supply of existing homes moved down sharply to end 2025 … down to 3.3 (vs. last year’s high of 4.7)
—-
December existing home sales +5.1% vs. +2.2% est. & +0.7% prior (rev up from +0.5%) … median sales price +0.4% y/y to $405,400 (weakest gain in 2.5 years)
4
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:09 am to OU Guy
Ball is above the heads of players and looks to be heading into the stands, quite possibly out the ballpark as it travels
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:15 am to OU Guy
Muh Affordability..
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:18 am to SingleMalt1973
The data talks and we are righting the ship into prosperity
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:33 am to OU Guy
One of the things I question are the jobs numbers. People say they are "soft" but millions of illegals are leaving the workforce (many had ss# so they were captured in the data) and we still have job growth.
I would think you are moving out 2 million people a year and have ANY positive job growth, that would mean 2 million plus Americans found jobs. Fantastic news.
Same with retail sales consumer data, the numbers are popping and you are doing it with 2million less consumers. Pretty impressive.
That SOB is gonna pull this off, who would have thought putting a business man in charge of the largest business in the world would work
I would think you are moving out 2 million people a year and have ANY positive job growth, that would mean 2 million plus Americans found jobs. Fantastic news.
Same with retail sales consumer data, the numbers are popping and you are doing it with 2million less consumers. Pretty impressive.
That SOB is gonna pull this off, who would have thought putting a business man in charge of the largest business in the world would work
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:40 am to OU Guy
to the moooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooon
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:41 am to OU Guy
Atlanta fed forecasting 5.4% GDP growth for 4th quarter.
Lutnik said it could have been 1.5% higher if not for the govt shutdown.
Whats 2026 look like.......
Lutnik said it could have been 1.5% higher if not for the govt shutdown.
Whats 2026 look like.......
quote:
Yes, U.S. capital investment is projected to reach new heights in 2026, primarily driven by massive spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, reshoring of supply chains, and a robust mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market. This growth is supported by resilient U.S. economic fundamentals, corporate tax cuts, and a general shift of global capital toward U.S. markets.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:47 am to trinidadtiger
Trump put all the levers in place for a great 2026.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:50 am to OU Guy
quote:
The data talks and we are righting the ship into prosperity
Scares the snot out of me as to what the globalists might try to pull before elections.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:51 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
One of the things I question are the jobs numbers. People say they are "soft" but millions of illegals are leaving the workforce (many had ss# so they were captured in the data) and we still have job growth.
I would think you are moving out 2 million people a year and have ANY positive job growth, that would mean 2 million plus Americans found jobs. Fantastic news.
Same with retail sales consumer data, the numbers are popping and you are doing it with 2million less consumers. Pretty impressive.
That SOB is gonna pull this off, who would have thought putting a business man in charge of the largest business in the world would work
A lot of these part timers also try and get multiple jobs. Hell, my old neighbor is a teacher and did a catering job on the weekends.
Some of the service industry jobs opening up from illegals leaving are possibly being filled by these people and not necessarily by people who weren't working at all.
To be unemployed you have to actually be looking.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:01 am to OU Guy
.
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