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LA US Senate Race: "Why Trump’s endorsement hasn’t been a ‘close out move’ for Louisiana"
Posted on 4/10/26 at 9:21 am
Posted on 4/10/26 at 9:21 am
quote:
When President Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow against Sen. Bill Cassidy, many thought she had a clear path to the upper chamber.
But three months after Trump pushed Letlow into the field, the race stands as a tight three-way contest between her, Cassidy and State Treasurer John Fleming, with all of them appearing to have a real chance to make the June runoff.
That has some Louisiana Republicans reconsidering whether Cassidy could survive in spite of his breaks with the president, including his 2021 vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, and his low polling numbers compared to Letlow and Fleming. Others are wondering if Letlow might end up locked in a runoff with Fleming that could prove much more challenging to her chances.
She has been massively outspent by Cassidy on the airwaves, still has low name ID compared to her opponents, and faces in Fleming another candidate with MAGA appeal and his own network of support. That’s making it harder for her to capitalize on Trump’s endorsement and rally the base behind her as she runs her first statewide campaign under a compressed timeline.
quote:
“The Trump endorsement has not had a close-out move. Cassidy was ready for her,” said GOP state Rep. Mike Bayham, who has not publicly supported any candidate yet. “They defined her before she introduced herself.”
Public polling gives a muddied picture of the primary, with polls from late March showing Letlow holding a narrow lead. A recent memo from Letlow’s campaign highlights an independent poll showing her leading with 29 percent, followed by Fleming at nearly 24 percent and Cassidy at nearly 20 percent. It also includes potential runoff scenarios showing her leading Cassidy 50 percent to 24 percent and in a statistical dead heat with Fleming in a head-to-head matchup.
“We’re in the middle of a dogfight,” said Mark Harris, a Cassidy aide. “Everyone’s expectation is that she would shoot to a large lead and that we’d all be running from behind. But frankly I think they just weren’t ready for this race.”
Letlow’s campaign claims that she has the most momentum in the race. She’s been endorsed by the Jefferson Parish Republican Executive Committee, one of the largest GOP groups in the state, and has the backing of Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who has clashed with Cassidy and made the unusual move of selecting her over a Republican incumbent.
quote:
Trump and his allies haven’t stepped in much for Letlow beyond his initial endorsement — at least not yet. The Robert F. Kennedy Jr.-aligned Make America Healthy Again PAC has pledged to spend $1 million to boost Letlow and oust Cassidy, who has been openly skeptical of the Health secretary. But Louisiana Republicans are still waiting to see if the president’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., will spend any of the $300 million cash it has on hand.
MAGA Inc. has been tightlipped about its midterm spending plans so far and whether it will toss money to Letlow for the primary or runoff.
quote:
Letlow’s ads have almost exclusively focused on her endorsement from Trump, rather than attacks on Cassidy. But he’s gone hard after her.
In recent days, Cassidy’s campaign has highlighted a video of Letlow praising diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives while interviewing for a job as president of the University of Louisiana at Monroe in 2020. They’re also hammering her for trading stocks of defense contractors amid the war in Iran.
In response to Cassidy’s DEI attacks, Letlow has pointed to his support for Biden’s economic stimulus package that included equity provisions to help underserved schools and businesses impacted by the pandemic.
Letlow told a local news outlet in March that DEI initiatives at the university had been “presented to us as something that would help students achieve the American dream,” but that she realized that the diversity push was “hijacked by the radical left and turned into indoctrination.”
quote:
And then there’s the Fleming factor.
“The two runoff spots are wide open,” said Matt Kay, Caddo Parish GOP chair, who described himself as an “anybody but Cassidy voter.” Kay said he was initially leaning toward Letlow, but after he saw her comments in support of DEI, he became interested in Fleming, who he sees as “more in touch with conservative voters.”
Fleming has largely self-funded his campaign, which launched last year. One of the founding members of the House Freedom Caucus, he’s made inroads with Republican voters, especially in rural communities, with his stark opposition to carbon capture, which he says is a dangerous process that risks water contamination, costs taxpayers and violates property rights.
quote:
Louisiana is conducting closed primaries for the first time this year, a change that Fleming thinks will benefit conservatives like him.
“Number one, you have a mistrust of Senator Cassidy amongst Republican based voters,” said John Couvillon, a pollster who works on behalf of Fleming. “Number two, since he does have a relatively Republican voting record, that doesn’t get him any great affections from Democrats either. So he’s kind of the proverbial man without a political country.”
But some Republicans no longer feel that Cassidy’s vote in 2021 to convict Trump should be disqualifying, and they’re reluctant to relinquish his leadership positions to a freshman senator. They also point out that Cassidy, despite expressing concerns about Kennedy’s rejection of some vaccines, ultimately voted for his confirmation, along with the rest of the Trump Cabinet.
“I don’t believe his vote to convict President Trump should be the reason we ought to oust him,” said Kelby Daigle, chair of the St. Martin Parish GOP. “I think it’s silly. We should move on. It’s old news.”
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Posted on 4/10/26 at 9:24 am to ragincajun03
The only reason he endorsed Letlow, is because Cassidy voted to impeach him.....plus Cassidy in the definition of RINO.....and beware of Letlow.
If he knew Fleming, he would have endorsed him, IMO.
If he knew Fleming, he would have endorsed him, IMO.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 9:25 am to ragincajun03
quote:
“I don’t believe his vote to convict President Trump should be the reason we ought to oust him,” said Kelby Daigle, chair of the St. Martin Parish GOP. “I think it’s silly. We should move on. It’s old news.”
This person is a moron.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 9:26 am to oldskule
quote:
The only reason he endorsed Letlow, is because Cassidy voted to impeach him.....plus Cassidy in the definition of RINO.....and beware of Letlow.
Correct. Non-idiots understand the endorsement is "anyone but Cassidy."
Posted on 4/10/26 at 9:27 am to ragincajun03
quote:
“I don’t believe his vote to convict President Trump should be the reason we ought to oust him,” said Kelby Daigle
Such a terrible take; so willfully denying the wishes of your constituents should be disqualifying.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 9:28 am to ragincajun03
Why hasn’t it been a closeout?
Because all politics are local and the GOP in Louisiana has a history of being fractured.
A three way clusterfrick is exactly what happened with Vitter in the governor’s race about 12 years ago.
Because all politics are local and the GOP in Louisiana has a history of being fractured.
A three way clusterfrick is exactly what happened with Vitter in the governor’s race about 12 years ago.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 10:03 am to ragincajun03
Anyone but Cassidy
Posted on 4/10/26 at 10:08 am to Tiger Attorney
All it is going to take is for Trump to fly down here and hold a huge rally. He will publicly snub Cassidy and it will be over.
68% of the state voted for Trump and Cassidy is already unlikable, naturally.
68% of the state voted for Trump and Cassidy is already unlikable, naturally.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 10:12 am to ragincajun03
I don’t really care about a Trump endorsement, I’m voting for Fleming.
I absolutely despise the things that Cassidy is doing. Straight up RINO.
I don’t trust Letlow. She is only in the position she’s currently in because of her deceased husband. Look at her explanation for supporting DEI. Clueless, and poor attempt to backtrack. I think Trump chose to endorse her because he thinks she’s easily controlled. Just look at his cabinet appointments and whom he’s already moved on from. You can’t just move on if you elect Letlow. She’s there for six years.
I absolutely despise the things that Cassidy is doing. Straight up RINO.
I don’t trust Letlow. She is only in the position she’s currently in because of her deceased husband. Look at her explanation for supporting DEI. Clueless, and poor attempt to backtrack. I think Trump chose to endorse her because he thinks she’s easily controlled. Just look at his cabinet appointments and whom he’s already moved on from. You can’t just move on if you elect Letlow. She’s there for six years.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 10:19 am to ragincajun03
Letlow should never have been allowed to run for this spot. This is a GOP failure and is going to result in Cassidy getting re-elected unless Fleming can get into the runoff.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 10:23 am to ragincajun03
Cassidy is a traditional Republican. All this RINO nonsense needs to stop. Letlow is unqualified for the position. This race should be between Cassidy and Fleming.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 10:41 am to imjustafatkid
quote:
“I don’t believe his vote to convict President Trump should be the reason we ought to oust him,” said Kelby Daigle, chair of the St. Martin Parish GOP. “I think it’s silly. We should move on. It’s old news.”
This person is a moron.
This person is a party shill.
Could very well be a moron, too.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 10:49 am to imjustafatkid
Yeah he pinky promises not to vote against the peoples will ever again. Promise 
Posted on 4/10/26 at 11:09 am to ragincajun03
I’m still registered to vote in Louisiana, I’m gonna go with Fleming. He’s the least worst. Might even be decent.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 11:23 am to ragincajun03
Posted on 4/10/26 at 11:27 am to ragincajun03
ANYONE except Cassidy.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 11:30 am to LsuNav
quote:
Cassidy is a traditional Republican. All this RINO nonsense needs to stop. Letlow is unqualified for the position.
You are correct and seem capable of independent critical thinking and analysis...
Posted on 4/10/26 at 11:34 am to VOR
quote:
You are correct and seem capable of independent critical thinking and analysis...
Nah, you’re just rooting for Cassidy because of who you are. Cassidy does not represent us and needs to go.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 11:35 am to how333
Fleming for my family. Cassidy is a democrat in republican clothing. Letlow can bring her DEI arse to wherever she came from.
Posted on 4/10/26 at 11:36 am to oldskule
Uhm, I suspect Trump knows Fleming pretty well. From Fleming's Treasurer website:
Now, maybe Trump thought Fleming wasn't a real contender?
?
quote:
After leaving Congress, he was appointed to three different positions in the Trump administration. First, he served from 2017-2019 as Deputy Assistant Secretary at Health and Human Services, then he was appointed and Senate-confirmed in 2019 as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development. In 2020, he was detailed to the West Wing of the White House and served as the Deputy Chief of Staff to President Trump.
Now, maybe Trump thought Fleming wasn't a real contender?
?
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