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Brees' Projected Numbers and Legacy
Posted on 5/21/10 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 5/21/10 at 2:02 pm
In Brees' 8 years as a starter in the NFL, he has averaged 3803 passing yards and 25 passing TDs a season.
In Brees' 4 years with the Saints, he has averaged 4575 yards passing and 30 TDs a season.
Assuming Brees plays 6 more seasons at 4200 yards passing and 30 passing TDs a season (very conservative, easily reachable numbers based on his past performance in New Orleans) he will finish with:
55,846 Passing Yards
382 Passing Touchdowns
Forget discussing whether Brees makes the Hall of Fame- these numbers will put him in the all-time Top 5 in both categories. He will likely end with more touchdowns and passing yards than John Elway, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and Dan Fouts.
Only Favre, Marino, and possibly Manning will have better numbers. However, if Brees DOES play 10 more years (as he says he wants to), he could rise even higher.
It's unbelievable that we are watching a QB that could end up being remembered in the highest upper echelon, inner circle of NFL greats. Cherish these next few years, Saints fans- we're watching history.
In Brees' 4 years with the Saints, he has averaged 4575 yards passing and 30 TDs a season.
Assuming Brees plays 6 more seasons at 4200 yards passing and 30 passing TDs a season (very conservative, easily reachable numbers based on his past performance in New Orleans) he will finish with:
55,846 Passing Yards
382 Passing Touchdowns
Forget discussing whether Brees makes the Hall of Fame- these numbers will put him in the all-time Top 5 in both categories. He will likely end with more touchdowns and passing yards than John Elway, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and Dan Fouts.
Only Favre, Marino, and possibly Manning will have better numbers. However, if Brees DOES play 10 more years (as he says he wants to), he could rise even higher.
It's unbelievable that we are watching a QB that could end up being remembered in the highest upper echelon, inner circle of NFL greats. Cherish these next few years, Saints fans- we're watching history.
This post was edited on 5/21/10 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 5/21/10 at 2:09 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
Cherish these next few years, Saints fans- we're watching history.
The best part is, he is an even better MAN. He is thoroughly involved in our community, LOVES NOLA, and I have NEVER heard a bad thing about him, outside of opponents fans of course.
A few more years like the ones he has given us, and IDGAF if we win 5 more SB's or none, he will still go down as an all-time great in my book.
Of course, a few more SB's would be nice!
Posted on 5/21/10 at 10:10 pm to ClientNumber9
I'll be ecstatic if he can play 6 more years. Injuries and age are a whammy when they hit ... and the guy is already walking around with a shoulder that represented "one of the most unique injuries of any athlete I've ever treated" according to the surgeon ... "I had never seen an injury this severe in any elite-level throwing athlete. We were in uncharted waters."
Posted on 5/21/10 at 11:20 pm to TigerDom
quote:
I'll be ecstatic if he can play 6 more years. Injuries and age are a whammy when they hit ... and the guy is already walking around with a shoulder that represented "one of the most unique injuries of any athlete I've ever treated" according to the surgeon ... "I had never seen an injury this severe in any elite-level throwing athlete. We were in uncharted waters."
Considering this new age of the NFL, he should make it another six years. Under today's rules, QBs receive more protection than ever before and DBs are allowed very little contact with WRs. The accurate, successful passers in the NFL take a handful of sacks a year now.
Two other things he has going for him is a great offensive line and an innovative coach whose play calls keep Brees upright on 95% of his snaps.
As far as his injury is concerned, I have no reason to doubt that it's not fully healed. The surgery was done almost five years ago and there's been nothing these past four seasons to suggest it's still an issue. I think if it were to pose a significant problem, it would've done so already.
This post was edited on 5/21/10 at 11:22 pm
Posted on 5/22/10 at 6:25 am to ClientNumber9
quote:I've been saying that for at least 2 years now. We are witnessing history being made.
It's unbelievable that we are watching a QB that could end up being remembered in the highest upper echelon, inner circle of NFL greats. Cherish these next few years, Saints fans- we're watching history.
Posted on 5/22/10 at 12:18 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
Forget discussing whether Brees makes the Hall of Fame- these numbers will put him in the all-time Top 5 in both categories. He will likely end with more touchdowns and passing yards than John Elway, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and Dan Fouts.
Posted on 5/22/10 at 3:07 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
Brees' Projected Numbers and Legacy
Excellent post!
Posted on 5/22/10 at 10:57 pm to ClientNumber9
good post..that second ring is key is the QB legacy as well
Posted on 5/23/10 at 2:58 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
Considering this new age of the NFL, he should make it another six years
Yea, I don't have all the data, but I would think that 36 would not be too far past the mean, if it is at all. 40 is another thing altogether though.
quote:
Under today's rules, QBs receive more protection than ever before and DBs are allowed very little contact with WRs.
True, but these rules to open up the passing game and protect the quarterback were put into place for a reason. Quarterbacks were getting mauled. So the rules may just bring things back to their historical average, and historically Quarterbacks have not generally survived to age 40. The grand total of every quarterback to have played at age 40 is listed below:
Name Age Year & Team Last Played
Charlie Conerly 40 1961 New York Giants
Johnny Unitas 40 1973 San Diego Chargers
Sonny Jurgensen 40 1974 Washington Redskins
George Blanda 48 1975 Oakland Raiders
Len Dawson 40 1975 Kansas City Chiefs
Earl Morrall 42 1976 Miami Dolphins
Jim Hart 40 1984 Washington Redskins
Joe Ferguson 40 1990 Indianapolis Colts
Vince Evans 40 1995 Oakland Raiders
Steve DeBerg 44 1998 Atlanta Falcons
Dave Krieg 40 1998 Tennessee Oilers
Wade Wilson+ 40 1999 Oakland Raiders
Warren Moon 44 2000 Kansas City Chiefs
Doug Flutie 43 2005 New England Patriots
Vinny Testaverde44 2007 Carolina Panthers
Brad Johnson 40 2008 Dallas Cowboys
Brett Favre* 40 2009 Minnesota Vikings
quote:
I think if it were to pose a significant problem, it would've done so already.
Two thoughts. First, you are correct in that although professional football players typically experience an injury during their career, their longevity in the league is more affected by position than their history of injuries. However, second, as a person gets older these old injuries make preparing for and recovering from physical activity more difficult. Some stop playing simply to avoid going to training camp.
I am not really arguing with you here, because basically I would love for the Saints to have a healthy Drew Brees at age 40 whose football attributes have not degraded at all. I just don't think that the probability of that is very high.
Posted on 5/23/10 at 3:12 pm to ClientNumber9
Keep your heads on straight. While I wholeheartedly agree that Brees is going to put up stupid ridiculous numbers while he stays healthy, this is the NFL. I realize the rules are there to protect the QB, but he's still only one play away from getting a serious injury to end a career.
IF he stays healthy, I completely agree with client client number 9. He'll top the aforementioned QB's. And, frankly, if he doesn't win the MVP soon, I say we order a rewrite?
is that better adono? lol. i certainly hope nobody from espn puts out a hit on me.
IF he stays healthy, I completely agree with client client number 9. He'll top the aforementioned QB's. And, frankly, if he doesn't win the MVP soon, I say we order a rewrite?
is that better adono? lol. i certainly hope nobody from espn puts out a hit on me.
This post was edited on 5/23/10 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 5/23/10 at 4:00 pm to jdrumdog
quote:
if he doesn't win the MVP soon, I say we riot.
Best keep those sort of thoughts to yourself. You never know if ESPN has a mole in here trying to uncover any degree of blasphemy towards the "Chosen One". The script has been written that "Pitiful Peyton" should get the MVP every year and the talking heads are too lazy to do a rewrite.
You have been warned.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 12:10 pm to adono
Great post. Here's hoping the magic continues for another decade.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 1:29 pm to TigerDom
quote:
historically Quarterbacks have not generally survived to age 40. The
quote:
I am not really arguing with you here, because basically I would love for the Saints to have a healthy Drew Brees at age 40 whose football attributes have not degraded at all.
Nah, I see what you're saying about the age 40 thing. That's why I didn't pro-rate his numbers to that age, because I agree with you. It's not that he CAN'T play at 40; it's that it's not likely. He just turned 31 in January, so 6 seasons will only put him at 37. I think that's completely realistic.
I think some of the other posters were tossing out the "playing til 40" line.
Posted on 5/24/10 at 1:43 pm to TigerDom
quote:
Name Age Year & Team Last Played
Charlie Conerly 40 1961 New York Giants
Johnny Unitas 40 1973 San Diego Chargers
Sonny Jurgensen 40 1974 Washington Redskins
George Blanda 48 1975 Oakland Raiders
Len Dawson 40 1975 Kansas City Chiefs
Earl Morrall 42 1976 Miami Dolphins
Jim Hart 40 1984 Washington Redskins
Joe Ferguson 40 1990 Indianapolis Colts
Vince Evans 40 1995 Oakland Raiders
Steve DeBerg 44 1998 Atlanta Falcons
Dave Krieg 40 1998 Tennessee Oilers
Wade Wilson+ 40 1999 Oakland Raiders
Warren Moon 44 2000 Kansas City Chiefs
Doug Flutie 43 2005 New England Patriots
Vinny Testaverde44 2007 Carolina Panthers
Brad Johnson 40 2008 Dallas Cowboys
Brett Favre* 40 2009 Minnesota Vikings
Mark Brunell 40 2010 New Orleans Saints
Posted on 5/26/10 at 6:38 am to TortiousTiger
quote:
Mark Brunell 40 2010 New Orleans Saints
I feel your pain, Brother!
I'm holding out hope that someone else pops up before the start of the season.
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