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Brees' Projected Numbers and Legacy

Posted on 5/21/10 at 2:02 pm
Posted by ClientNumber9
Member since Feb 2009
9989 posts
Posted on 5/21/10 at 2:02 pm
In Brees' 8 years as a starter in the NFL, he has averaged 3803 passing yards and 25 passing TDs a season.

In Brees' 4 years with the Saints, he has averaged 4575 yards passing and 30 TDs a season.

Assuming Brees plays 6 more seasons at 4200 yards passing and 30 passing TDs a season (very conservative, easily reachable numbers based on his past performance in New Orleans) he will finish with:

55,846 Passing Yards
382 Passing Touchdowns

Forget discussing whether Brees makes the Hall of Fame- these numbers will put him in the all-time Top 5 in both categories. He will likely end with more touchdowns and passing yards than John Elway, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and Dan Fouts.

Only Favre, Marino, and possibly Manning will have better numbers. However, if Brees DOES play 10 more years (as he says he wants to), he could rise even higher.

It's unbelievable that we are watching a QB that could end up being remembered in the highest upper echelon, inner circle of NFL greats. Cherish these next few years, Saints fans- we're watching history.

This post was edited on 5/21/10 at 2:09 pm
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82098 posts
Posted on 5/21/10 at 2:06 pm to
Posted by GeauxDT
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
3654 posts
Posted on 5/21/10 at 2:09 pm to
quote:

Cherish these next few years, Saints fans- we're watching history.


The best part is, he is an even better MAN. He is thoroughly involved in our community, LOVES NOLA, and I have NEVER heard a bad thing about him, outside of opponents fans of course.

A few more years like the ones he has given us, and IDGAF if we win 5 more SB's or none, he will still go down as an all-time great in my book.

Of course, a few more SB's would be nice!
Posted by TigerDom
Puerto Rico
Member since Jun 2004
5570 posts
Posted on 5/21/10 at 10:10 pm to
I'll be ecstatic if he can play 6 more years. Injuries and age are a whammy when they hit ... and the guy is already walking around with a shoulder that represented "one of the most unique injuries of any athlete I've ever treated" according to the surgeon ... "I had never seen an injury this severe in any elite-level throwing athlete. We were in uncharted waters."
Posted by ClientNumber9
Member since Feb 2009
9989 posts
Posted on 5/21/10 at 11:20 pm to
quote:

I'll be ecstatic if he can play 6 more years. Injuries and age are a whammy when they hit ... and the guy is already walking around with a shoulder that represented "one of the most unique injuries of any athlete I've ever treated" according to the surgeon ... "I had never seen an injury this severe in any elite-level throwing athlete. We were in uncharted waters."


Considering this new age of the NFL, he should make it another six years. Under today's rules, QBs receive more protection than ever before and DBs are allowed very little contact with WRs. The accurate, successful passers in the NFL take a handful of sacks a year now.

Two other things he has going for him is a great offensive line and an innovative coach whose play calls keep Brees upright on 95% of his snaps.

As far as his injury is concerned, I have no reason to doubt that it's not fully healed. The surgery was done almost five years ago and there's been nothing these past four seasons to suggest it's still an issue. I think if it were to pose a significant problem, it would've done so already.
This post was edited on 5/21/10 at 11:22 pm
Posted by Bayou
Boudin, LA
Member since Feb 2005
41935 posts
Posted on 5/22/10 at 6:25 am to
quote:

It's unbelievable that we are watching a QB that could end up being remembered in the highest upper echelon, inner circle of NFL greats. Cherish these next few years, Saints fans- we're watching history.
I've been saying that for at least 2 years now. We are witnessing history being made.
Posted by Freauxzen
Washington
Member since Feb 2006
38510 posts
Posted on 5/22/10 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

Forget discussing whether Brees makes the Hall of Fame- these numbers will put him in the all-time Top 5 in both categories. He will likely end with more touchdowns and passing yards than John Elway, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Fran Tarkenton, and Dan Fouts.


Posted by adono
River Ridge
Member since Sep 2003
7307 posts
Posted on 5/22/10 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

Brees' Projected Numbers and Legacy


Excellent post!

Posted by Tiger Attorney
New Orleans
Member since Oct 2007
20043 posts
Posted on 5/22/10 at 10:57 pm to
good post..that second ring is key is the QB legacy as well
Posted by TigerDom
Puerto Rico
Member since Jun 2004
5570 posts
Posted on 5/23/10 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

Considering this new age of the NFL, he should make it another six years


Yea, I don't have all the data, but I would think that 36 would not be too far past the mean, if it is at all. 40 is another thing altogether though.

quote:

Under today's rules, QBs receive more protection than ever before and DBs are allowed very little contact with WRs.


True, but these rules to open up the passing game and protect the quarterback were put into place for a reason. Quarterbacks were getting mauled. So the rules may just bring things back to their historical average, and historically Quarterbacks have not generally survived to age 40. The grand total of every quarterback to have played at age 40 is listed below:

Name Age Year & Team Last Played
Charlie Conerly 40 1961 New York Giants
Johnny Unitas 40 1973 San Diego Chargers
Sonny Jurgensen 40 1974 Washington Redskins
George Blanda 48 1975 Oakland Raiders
Len Dawson 40 1975 Kansas City Chiefs
Earl Morrall 42 1976 Miami Dolphins
Jim Hart 40 1984 Washington Redskins
Joe Ferguson 40 1990 Indianapolis Colts
Vince Evans 40 1995 Oakland Raiders
Steve DeBerg 44 1998 Atlanta Falcons
Dave Krieg 40 1998 Tennessee Oilers
Wade Wilson+ 40 1999 Oakland Raiders
Warren Moon 44 2000 Kansas City Chiefs
Doug Flutie 43 2005 New England Patriots
Vinny Testaverde44 2007 Carolina Panthers
Brad Johnson 40 2008 Dallas Cowboys
Brett Favre* 40 2009 Minnesota Vikings

quote:

I think if it were to pose a significant problem, it would've done so already.


Two thoughts. First, you are correct in that although professional football players typically experience an injury during their career, their longevity in the league is more affected by position than their history of injuries. However, second, as a person gets older these old injuries make preparing for and recovering from physical activity more difficult. Some stop playing simply to avoid going to training camp.

I am not really arguing with you here, because basically I would love for the Saints to have a healthy Drew Brees at age 40 whose football attributes have not degraded at all. I just don't think that the probability of that is very high.
Posted by jdrumdog
baton rouge, la
Member since Jan 2010
7655 posts
Posted on 5/23/10 at 3:12 pm to
Keep your heads on straight. While I wholeheartedly agree that Brees is going to put up stupid ridiculous numbers while he stays healthy, this is the NFL. I realize the rules are there to protect the QB, but he's still only one play away from getting a serious injury to end a career.

IF he stays healthy, I completely agree with client client number 9. He'll top the aforementioned QB's. And, frankly, if he doesn't win the MVP soon, I say we order a rewrite?

is that better adono? lol. i certainly hope nobody from espn puts out a hit on me.
This post was edited on 5/23/10 at 5:25 pm
Posted by adono
River Ridge
Member since Sep 2003
7307 posts
Posted on 5/23/10 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

if he doesn't win the MVP soon, I say we riot.


Best keep those sort of thoughts to yourself. You never know if ESPN has a mole in here trying to uncover any degree of blasphemy towards the "Chosen One". The script has been written that "Pitiful Peyton" should get the MVP every year and the talking heads are too lazy to do a rewrite.
You have been warned.

Posted by GuruGeaux
Lafayette
Member since May 2010
57 posts
Posted on 5/24/10 at 12:10 pm to
Great post. Here's hoping the magic continues for another decade.
Posted by ClientNumber9
Member since Feb 2009
9989 posts
Posted on 5/24/10 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

historically Quarterbacks have not generally survived to age 40. The


quote:

I am not really arguing with you here, because basically I would love for the Saints to have a healthy Drew Brees at age 40 whose football attributes have not degraded at all.


Nah, I see what you're saying about the age 40 thing. That's why I didn't pro-rate his numbers to that age, because I agree with you. It's not that he CAN'T play at 40; it's that it's not likely. He just turned 31 in January, so 6 seasons will only put him at 37. I think that's completely realistic.

I think some of the other posters were tossing out the "playing til 40" line.
Posted by TortiousTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2007
12668 posts
Posted on 5/24/10 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

Name Age Year & Team Last Played
Charlie Conerly 40 1961 New York Giants
Johnny Unitas 40 1973 San Diego Chargers
Sonny Jurgensen 40 1974 Washington Redskins
George Blanda 48 1975 Oakland Raiders
Len Dawson 40 1975 Kansas City Chiefs
Earl Morrall 42 1976 Miami Dolphins
Jim Hart 40 1984 Washington Redskins
Joe Ferguson 40 1990 Indianapolis Colts
Vince Evans 40 1995 Oakland Raiders
Steve DeBerg 44 1998 Atlanta Falcons
Dave Krieg 40 1998 Tennessee Oilers
Wade Wilson+ 40 1999 Oakland Raiders
Warren Moon 44 2000 Kansas City Chiefs
Doug Flutie 43 2005 New England Patriots
Vinny Testaverde44 2007 Carolina Panthers
Brad Johnson 40 2008 Dallas Cowboys
Brett Favre* 40 2009 Minnesota Vikings



Mark Brunell 40 2010 New Orleans Saints
Posted by adono
River Ridge
Member since Sep 2003
7307 posts
Posted on 5/26/10 at 6:38 am to
quote:

Mark Brunell 40 2010 New Orleans Saints


I feel your pain, Brother!

I'm holding out hope that someone else pops up before the start of the season.
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