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LSU and the 2010-2011 BCS National Championship
Posted on 10/27/10 at 10:59 am
Posted on 10/27/10 at 10:59 am
Well, I have run the numbers quite a few times to see how LSU would rank in some of the computers and I have some good and bad news. Granted, to make it as "realistic" as possible, I forecast the season out with the favorite in the computers winning games over an opponent with a lower ranking. Of course that will not happen all the time, but it is the best you can do. I also assumed LSU wins out (a big "IF", but this is an LSU board after all).
Good news: TCU, Oregon, and Utah are no worries. Although Oregon would theoretically hold on to #1 in the human polls from here on out, even an undefeated Oregon finished 8th in most computer polls. TCU/Utah is a bigger scare, but they would be passed up by an 11-1 LSU in most simulations.
Bad news: Auburn, Boise, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Michigan State are much bigger concerns. Boise probably won't lose, and although it sounds weird, they kept ending up as #2 in the polls unless Missouri wins out. Oklahoma/Michigan State have to lose again in order for LSU to pass them. That, or Missouri has to fall of the face of college football and drag Oklahoma's rating with it. If Missouri loses once, they would fall SLIGHTLY behind an 11-1 LSU. The real kicker is Auburn. Even at 12-1, (loss to Bama, but win over SC/FL/UGA in the SECCG), they would remain #1 in the computers over 12-0 Boise, 12-0 Oregon, 12-0 TCU, 11-1 LSU, 12-1 Missouri (With Big 12 CG), 12-1 Oklahoma (with Big 12 CG), and 12-1 Nebraska (with Big 12 CG).
I will post some of the simulations later when I have time. Also, if people want to ask reasonable hypothetical questions about if "who beats who", I will try and accommodate those request.
Good news: TCU, Oregon, and Utah are no worries. Although Oregon would theoretically hold on to #1 in the human polls from here on out, even an undefeated Oregon finished 8th in most computer polls. TCU/Utah is a bigger scare, but they would be passed up by an 11-1 LSU in most simulations.
Bad news: Auburn, Boise, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Michigan State are much bigger concerns. Boise probably won't lose, and although it sounds weird, they kept ending up as #2 in the polls unless Missouri wins out. Oklahoma/Michigan State have to lose again in order for LSU to pass them. That, or Missouri has to fall of the face of college football and drag Oklahoma's rating with it. If Missouri loses once, they would fall SLIGHTLY behind an 11-1 LSU. The real kicker is Auburn. Even at 12-1, (loss to Bama, but win over SC/FL/UGA in the SECCG), they would remain #1 in the computers over 12-0 Boise, 12-0 Oregon, 12-0 TCU, 11-1 LSU, 12-1 Missouri (With Big 12 CG), 12-1 Oklahoma (with Big 12 CG), and 12-1 Nebraska (with Big 12 CG).
I will post some of the simulations later when I have time. Also, if people want to ask reasonable hypothetical questions about if "who beats who", I will try and accommodate those request.
This post was edited on 10/27/10 at 11:00 am
5
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:06 am to slackster
quote:
The real kicker is Auburn. Even at 12-1, (loss to Bama, but win over SC/FL/UGA in the SECCG)
If Auburn loses to Bama and Bama doesnt lose any other games then they go to the SECCG and likely to the BCS Championship game.
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:07 am to Mike Honcho
He ran the numbers with us winning out... Meaning we beat BAMA.
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:08 am to Mike Honcho
I may have misunderstood, but I think in this hypothetical, bama would lose to LSU since the scenario had LSU running the table
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:09 am to Mike Honcho
quote:
If Auburn loses to Bama and Bama doesnt lose any other games then they go to the SECCG and likely to the BCS Championship game.
I know that, but in the original paragraph, this ALL assumes LSU winning out. If you would like, I can see how Auburn/Bama would fall if they both end up 11-1 with Bama going to the SEC CG and winning, thereby being 12-1. To be honest, the computers really do not like Bama's resume thus far. I would venture to say that an 11-1 Auburn has a DECENT shot at being better than 12-1 Bama in the computers. Also, they could end up 1-2 if Mizzou slips up.
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:17 am to slackster
By the way, this is not guaranteed fact or take it to the bank type shite. I do not have the "street cred" that LSUMatt has, but I figured people, mainly those who are not chicken-littles, would want to know what are computer rankings would be. I could try and forecast the USA Today and Harris Polls, but that is inherently harder given the subjective nature.
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:19 am to slackster
What program are you plugging these scenarios into
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:32 am to slackster
If LSU played for the NC this year, we would get embarrassed. If we end up in the 6-10 range, I'd be thrilled.
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:33 am to WM88
I just saw a pig flying!!!
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:41 am to WM88
(no message)
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:42 am to WM88
quote:
If LSU played for the NC this year, we would get embarrassed.
Classic Negatiger
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:47 am to jptiger2009
Which computer simulation gives us an Offense? Please show your work. 
Posted on 10/27/10 at 11:57 am to slackster
I would rather see 11-1 LSU face undefeated Auburn in the champ game.
its possible with a few losses. let's see if LSU can even beat Bama, before we start worrying about that one.
AND, if Auburn does go undefeated, that opens the Sugar bowl, and 11-1 LSU would be very attractive.
So... let's see LSU beat Auburn, Ole Miss and Arky, and then let's have this conversation. I suspect that the deck will be cleared of some nominees.
its possible with a few losses. let's see if LSU can even beat Bama, before we start worrying about that one.
AND, if Auburn does go undefeated, that opens the Sugar bowl, and 11-1 LSU would be very attractive.
So... let's see LSU beat Auburn, Ole Miss and Arky, and then let's have this conversation. I suspect that the deck will be cleared of some nominees.
This post was edited on 10/27/10 at 11:57 am
Posted on 10/27/10 at 12:04 pm to ottothewise
The BCS would rather die than to see two SEC teams in the NCG, even if that was possible.
Posted on 10/27/10 at 12:10 pm to slackster
We wont jump Ohio State either, and i highly doubt they will lose again
Posted on 10/27/10 at 12:15 pm to slackster
is this thread actually serious?
Posted on 10/27/10 at 1:15 pm to WelcomeToDeathValley
there should be no discussion concerning LSU and the NC this year, it's not going to happen, I am just hoping for a top 15 finish and a decent bowl game.
Posted on 10/27/10 at 1:36 pm to mtb010
I do not understand that type of attitude. Every nega and realitiger talks about how the expectations for LSU are to compete for championships, yet when someone talks about some hypothetical situations where LSU could actually get there, it is foolish? Pick your poison. Either our expectations are too high or there is nothing wrong with talking about a NC right now.
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