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Message
538 Shifts to Harris
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:20 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:20 am
Trump has been around a five point favorite for the past week or so. 538 was actually the most pro-trump poll analyzer in 2016
LINK
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Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:22 am to VOLhalla
Was still vastly wrong in 2016 too
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:24 am to VOLhalla
It’s been basically 50-50 for a month. Same as silver’s.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:25 am to VOLhalla
quote:538 was never pro-Trump.
was actually the most pro-trump poll analyzer in 2016
It was bought from Nate Silver years ago.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:25 am to VOLhalla
538 was the NYT aggregate that gave Clinton the 95% chance to win
They separated from the NYT after that election
They separated from the NYT after that election
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:27 am to VOLhalla
Not sure why so many people don't realize that 50-50 is basically a 4 or 5 point shift towards Trump. That means blue states are probably going to be more red, and that swing states are not going to be as close as last time.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:28 am to VOLhalla
“Shifts to Harris”
It’s 50-49-1 for Harris.
That’s as dead even as possible.
I have to think Kamala didn’t inspire any new voters and moderates who care about the economy, immigration, and foreign policy shifted to Trump.
It’s 50-49-1 for Harris.
That’s as dead even as possible.
I have to think Kamala didn’t inspire any new voters and moderates who care about the economy, immigration, and foreign policy shifted to Trump.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:28 am to VOLhalla
Dafaq is a simulation going to do? We get to the polls like we did in 2020 we win. It is that simple.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:31 am to Roaad
Make no mistake, I am not calling the 538 model biased or partisan. . .it is just a model, and can only produce results based on the data input.
Polls are not great data, really, so an aggregate of polls are only a relevant datapoint. . .as opposed to THE data point
They are like betting lines in sports. They can tell you who the consensus says is going to win. . .but the game still has to be played
Polls are not great data, really, so an aggregate of polls are only a relevant datapoint. . .as opposed to THE data point
They are like betting lines in sports. They can tell you who the consensus says is going to win. . .but the game still has to be played
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:31 am to VOLhalla
Polls are always BS. Have any of yall been polled this year? I dont know anybody that has. I remember one poll(I think Monmouth) called me one time years ago. I participated. After that they kept calling me over and over(I hung up on them).
They know who they are calling and how to manipulate their polls. If the polls all showed Trump up, there would be no cover for any shenanigans. Dont worry about these polls
Rush Limbaugh had a great comment back after 2016. Trump didnt "come from behind" to win. He was always winning, the polls were just wrong
They know who they are calling and how to manipulate their polls. If the polls all showed Trump up, there would be no cover for any shenanigans. Dont worry about these polls
Rush Limbaugh had a great comment back after 2016. Trump didnt "come from behind" to win. He was always winning, the polls were just wrong
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 7:34 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:40 am to VOLhalla
Countless talking heads and pollsters have said Kamala needed at least a 2+ percent popular vote win to have a chance at the EC. Outside of a few outliers, they either have Trump ahead, tied, or slight Kamala lead. Biden won by 5 million votes, but really it came down to about 40,000 votes in a few swing states.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:40 am to VOLhalla
Trump has a hidden vote and always has. If it’s 50/50, it’s really 52-48
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:41 am to stelly1025
quote:
Dafaq is a simulation going to do?
It's like when they would play the game 10k times on NCAA 14 and say that's how the CFP title game would go.
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