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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 11/24/14 at 3:05 pm to GynoSandberg
Chris Johnson gained 642 yards the season after his 2k season, yet still had 318 carries. That's a major regression. All of those backs have major regression years which was the point you were disputing by posting those charts. All the other poster said was that a major regression was possible, which exactly is the case with Murray going into next season.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 3:08 pm to Gtothemoney
Nelson
Brown
Bell
Charles
Murray
PPR League
Brown
Bell
Charles
Murray
PPR League
Posted on 11/24/14 at 3:08 pm to dnm3305
a major regression is possible with any player for a variety of reasons
Getting 350 carries has nothing to do with it
Getting 350 carries has nothing to do with it
Posted on 11/24/14 at 3:09 pm to GynoSandberg
I know I agree im thinking he just over looked that
Posted on 11/24/14 at 3:29 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
a major regression is possible with any player for a variety of reasons Getting 350 carries has nothing to do with it
Well you or I dont know that at all.
Michael Turner- 2008 season - (only season over 350)
376 att, 1699 yards
2009 - 178 att, 871 yards. Obviously due to injury. Is the freak occurance or inevitable due to the bulk the previous year?
MJD - 2011 season (age 27)
343 att, 1606 yards (only season over 340 att)
2012 season
86 att, 414 yards
Arian Foster - 2012 season (age 26)
351 att, 1424 yards (only season over 351
2013 season
121 att, 542 yards
Steven Jackson - 2006 season (age 23)
346 att, 1528 yards (highest att total of career)
2007 season
237 att, 1002 yards
Larry Johnson - 2006 season (age 25)
416 att, 1789 yards (by far highest att total of career)
2007 season
158 att, 559 yards
There are ALOT of examples like this...could be coincidence but seems trendy to me. A back will get hurt within two seasons of his highest career carry total if that total is 340+ carries
Posted on 11/24/14 at 3:39 pm to dnm3305
MJD got hurt though. Can't use him
Posted on 11/24/14 at 3:42 pm to dnm3305
Every case is different. Like I said, there isnt a direct correlation there. The guys I listed all had multiple years of high volume, performing at a high level.
Yeah, injury. And he would still go on to log two more 300+ 1300+ season. So he wasnt "done"
And this was year 3 of 299+ carries. Obviously worn down.
Again, see MJD. 327 and 278 the years before.
12 games that year. Guy still had 8 straight 1k seasons
The one true case of a RB being run into the ground.
Murray hasnt logged more than 217 carries before this season. He may break down in a few years, but it is highly unlikely it's next year, unless he gets hurt.
quote:
Michael Turner- 2008 season - (only season over 350)
376 att, 1699 yards
2009 - 178 att, 871 yards. Obviously due to injury. Is the freak occurance or inevitable due to the bulk the previous year?
Yeah, injury. And he would still go on to log two more 300+ 1300+ season. So he wasnt "done"
quote:
MJD - 2011 season (age 27)
343 att, 1606 yards (only season over 340 att)
And this was year 3 of 299+ carries. Obviously worn down.
quote:
Arian Foster - 2012 season (age 26)
351 att, 1424 yards (only season over 351
2013 season
121 att, 542 yards
Again, see MJD. 327 and 278 the years before.
quote:
Steven Jackson - 2006 season (age 23)
346 att, 1528 yards (highest att total of career)
2007 season
237 att, 1002 yards
12 games that year. Guy still had 8 straight 1k seasons
quote:
Larry Johnson - 2006 season (age 25)
416 att, 1789 yards (by far highest att total of career)
2007 season
158 att, 559 yards
The one true case of a RB being run into the ground.
Murray hasnt logged more than 217 carries before this season. He may break down in a few years, but it is highly unlikely it's next year, unless he gets hurt.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 3:56 pm to Byron Bojangles III
Forte
Le'Veon
Murray
Charles
Demaryius
Antonio (I had to include him - these are the big six next year)
Why I really like Le'Veon:
2015 age: 23
RUSH: 195/951/2
4.88 YPC
REC: 57/484/2
70 targets
130.45 YPG
On pace for 2,087 total yards
He is young, has incredible vision and patience, and he gets peppered with receptions.
The fact that he only has 4 touchdowns so far is encouraging because he is putting up top 3 RB numbers without the end zone.
Bell is third in the NFL in YAC with 482 yards. He trails only Forte and DT88.
Forte is basically the superior version of Bell in terms of 2014. Le'Veon may surpass him next year.
2015 age: 29
RUSH: 196/822/5
4.19 YPC
1 fumble
REC: 72/598/3
89 targets
129.09 YPG
On pace for 2,065 total yards
Forte's advantage is four trips into the endzone and more catches. I can see Le'Veon easily catching up in TD's going forward and next season, but Forte's volume of receptions cannot be replicated.
Le'Veon
Murray
Charles
Demaryius
Antonio (I had to include him - these are the big six next year)
Why I really like Le'Veon:
2015 age: 23
RUSH: 195/951/2
4.88 YPC
REC: 57/484/2
70 targets
130.45 YPG
On pace for 2,087 total yards
He is young, has incredible vision and patience, and he gets peppered with receptions.
The fact that he only has 4 touchdowns so far is encouraging because he is putting up top 3 RB numbers without the end zone.
Bell is third in the NFL in YAC with 482 yards. He trails only Forte and DT88.
Forte is basically the superior version of Bell in terms of 2014. Le'Veon may surpass him next year.
2015 age: 29
RUSH: 196/822/5
4.19 YPC
1 fumble
REC: 72/598/3
89 targets
129.09 YPG
On pace for 2,065 total yards
Forte's advantage is four trips into the endzone and more catches. I can see Le'Veon easily catching up in TD's going forward and next season, but Forte's volume of receptions cannot be replicated.
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:05 am to Byron Bojangles III
quote:
MJD got hurt though. Can't use him
Nearly all of them got hurt. That's the point.
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:07 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
Murray hasnt logged more than 217 carries before this season.
And why is that?
This post was edited on 11/25/14 at 8:07 am
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:15 am to MrPappagiorgio
quote:
Jeremy Hill after the Bengals cut Bernard in the offseason
Why waste $832k on Gio Bernard when you have an LSU lsu GEAUX GEAUX derp!!
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:17 am to dnm3305
I said twice he was injury prone. He's been hurt 3 or 4 times and none of it has to do with getting 400 carries
IF you want to say he's not in your top five bc he's injury prone, that's fine
If you want to say he's not in your top 5 bc 400 carries will negatively affect his performance next season, then that's just pure speculation
IF you want to say he's not in your top five bc he's injury prone, that's fine
If you want to say he's not in your top 5 bc 400 carries will negatively affect his performance next season, then that's just pure speculation
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:20 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
IF you want to say he's not in your top five bc he's injury prone, that's fine If you want to say he's not in your top 5 bc 400 carries will negatively affect his performance next season, then that's just pure speculation
Fair enough. Can I combine the two though? He's not in my top 5 because he's injury prone AND has gotten 400+ carries this past season, nearly doubling his previous high per season. Everything in fantasy is speculation. All of this is really about the principle of the matter and Im just arguing the point. The main reason I dont have him in my top 5 and maybe even top 10 is because he's about to get PAID.
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:25 am to dnm3305
I feel ya. He will be in my top 5 but I probabljy won't draft him, if that makes sense. This season alone will just put him in the top 5 by default due to a weak RB season.
If he stays healthy all year, a lot of people are going to feel safe taking him high next year. I'll probably hedge and just go with a guy im more confident in.
If he stays healthy all year, a lot of people are going to feel safe taking him high next year. I'll probably hedge and just go with a guy im more confident in.
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:27 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
I feel ya. He will be in my top 5 but I probabljy won't draft him, if that makes sense. This season alone will just put him in the top 5 by default due to a weak RB season. If he stays healthy all year, a lot of people are going to feel safe taking him high next year. I'll probably hedge and just go with a guy im more confident in.
I feel the exact same way and will do the same thing next year. For the record, Im riding the Murray pain train into the sunset this year so Im hoping all this Murray talk isnt jinxing me. I drafted him in my two high dollar leagues because the value was right and have held onto him in one league and traded him straight up for Antonio Brown (ppr) in another.
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:45 am to dnm3305
Murray will be a top 8 pick for sure. I'm just saying to be cautious about him next season especially if he takes even more carries into the playoffs.
He's known for not holding up all season, it's just one of those years where everything has gone right for him. Which is why the Cowboys are getting every ounce out of him this season. Past history has shown backs with that much tread in a season fall back soon after unless your a freak like AP.
*cue the AP to the Cowboys talk this offseason*
He's known for not holding up all season, it's just one of those years where everything has gone right for him. Which is why the Cowboys are getting every ounce out of him this season. Past history has shown backs with that much tread in a season fall back soon after unless your a freak like AP.
*cue the AP to the Cowboys talk this offseason*
This post was edited on 11/25/14 at 8:49 am
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:46 am to dnm3305
My top 5:
Charles
Bell
Forte
Murray
Luck
It will be interesting to see where Peterson ends up tho.
Charles
Bell
Forte
Murray
Luck
It will be interesting to see where Peterson ends up tho.
Posted on 11/25/14 at 8:49 am to hiltacular
Forte
Bell
Antonio
Jordy Nelson
Charles
Bell
Antonio
Jordy Nelson
Charles
Posted on 11/25/14 at 10:58 am to dnm3305
I think Charles should always be the top pick in a ppr league as long as Alex smith is his qb. I've never seen an offense so dependent on one player.
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