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re: 2022 PGA Betting & Fantasy Golf Thread
Posted on 2/7/22 at 4:48 pm to wutangfinancial
Posted on 2/7/22 at 4:48 pm to wutangfinancial
Fully agree on Rahm. He's going to win soon. I'm not sure I can pass on Power at 40/1. Him not being able to close is a little concerning but that current form is top 5 on tour and too hard to ignore at this point.
1
Posted on 2/8/22 at 8:51 am to ATLsuTiger
Probably late to the party, but I hit on List 70/1 and Hoge 66/1 the past two weeks so I should probably give my picks. 
Posted on 2/8/22 at 8:52 am to tzimme4
Posted this in the MSB betting thread. Following the same formula trends which got me to Hoge last week.
Trends from winners of the Waste Management:
-Top 7 or better in one of their last five starts.
-Top 50 in Greens in Regulations for the current year.
-Top-5 result in a past Waste Management Open
Remember it's been mostly big names that win this tournament so it's unlikely we see a longshot. Past winners include Koepka, Simpson, Fowler, Woodland and Matsuyama for the past six years.
Another thing to consider is this course is a TPC course similar to the Players Championship. You will see past champions also play well in Phoenix. (Thomas, Fowler, Simpson, Kuchar)
Names that fit those trends include:
Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Bubba Watson, Carlos Ortiz, Rickie Fowler, Brendan Steele and Matt Kuchar.
Trends from winners of the Waste Management:
-Top 7 or better in one of their last five starts.
-Top 50 in Greens in Regulations for the current year.
-Top-5 result in a past Waste Management Open
Remember it's been mostly big names that win this tournament so it's unlikely we see a longshot. Past winners include Koepka, Simpson, Fowler, Woodland and Matsuyama for the past six years.
Another thing to consider is this course is a TPC course similar to the Players Championship. You will see past champions also play well in Phoenix. (Thomas, Fowler, Simpson, Kuchar)
Names that fit those trends include:
Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Bubba Watson, Carlos Ortiz, Rickie Fowler, Brendan Steele and Matt Kuchar.
This post was edited on 2/8/22 at 8:54 am
Posted on 2/8/22 at 9:02 am to tzimme4
The past two weeks I’ve had Zalatoris and Cantlay.
If I ever pick a player who makes some putts on Sunday I’d be in business.
Oh well, moving to the next one.
If I ever pick a player who makes some putts on Sunday I’d be in business.
Oh well, moving to the next one.
Posted on 2/8/22 at 9:06 am to Swagga
Cantlay and Hoge were the only two that fit the formula to win last Sunday.
Pebble winners had a T-5 finish in a recent start and a T-16 in a past Pebble tournament. Hoge finished 2nd two weeks ago and 12th at Pebble last year. Cantlay also fit that formula.
I had Zalatoris too so I was hoping for a bigger payday at Torrey lol
Pebble winners had a T-5 finish in a recent start and a T-16 in a past Pebble tournament. Hoge finished 2nd two weeks ago and 12th at Pebble last year. Cantlay also fit that formula.
I had Zalatoris too so I was hoping for a bigger payday at Torrey lol
This post was edited on 2/8/22 at 9:07 am
Posted on 2/8/22 at 4:04 pm to tzimme4
quote:
I hit on List 70/1 and Hoge 66/1 the past two weeks
Very nice!
I'm with you on JT, Deki and Scottie but decided to just go with Scottie for the better number. I sprinkled in some other mids/longshots because I just can't help myself. And I also FOMO'd on a totally out of form Brooks going back-to-back. My final card:
WMPO
Scottie 25
Brooks 35
---------
Power 40
Conners 50
List 60
---------
Perez 100
McCarthy 100
KH Lee 125
Posted on 2/8/22 at 7:40 pm to tzimme4
Thanks for posting. Do you use any particular site to find those trends?
Posted on 2/8/22 at 9:15 pm to ATLsuTiger
I’m surprised Scottie is getting triggered by your model. I thought Plantation was the only tourney he played in and everybody murdered that course.
Posted on 2/8/22 at 10:08 pm to wutangfinancial
Henley. List. Rahm. Mito.
Posted on 2/9/22 at 6:14 am to medtiger
I just scan mostly Twitter in the mornings searching Waste Management Open. DKNation DFS Golf has good info.
Top players usually win this one so its more than likely someone short of 40-1 is going to win this one.
Top players usually win this one so its more than likely someone short of 40-1 is going to win this one.
This post was edited on 2/9/22 at 6:16 am
Posted on 2/9/22 at 6:19 am to tzimme4
WM Outrights: (Playing the Players Championship/TPC correlation)
Justin Thomas 12/1
Hideki Matsuyama 16/1
Jordan Speith 21/1
Scottie Scheffler 28/1
Webb Simpson 47/1
Fanduel: W/O Rahm, Thomas, Matsuyama & Hovland:
Russell Henley 40/1
Top-20:
Adam Scott (+150)
Justin Thomas 12/1
Hideki Matsuyama 16/1
Jordan Speith 21/1
Scottie Scheffler 28/1
Webb Simpson 47/1
Fanduel: W/O Rahm, Thomas, Matsuyama & Hovland:
Russell Henley 40/1
Top-20:
Adam Scott (+150)
This post was edited on 2/9/22 at 6:21 am
Posted on 2/9/22 at 6:45 am to tzimme4
My model loves Scott. I just can’t force myself to bet him. I have him in 1/5 of my dk lineups tho.
Posted on 2/9/22 at 7:29 am to BallChamp00
He's 37/1 on Fanduel without the top-4 favorites. Was leaning towards it, but I think T-20 is a safe bet. He's playing well in Dubai
Posted on 2/9/22 at 7:48 am to tzimme4
Datagolf.com is a very good resource for pre tourney and mid tourney trends.
Posted on 2/9/22 at 12:16 pm to MitchMartin
SmartGolfBets is a solid resource for recent form and past results/odds.
As of now there seems to be a slight wind advantage for the afternoon wave tomorrow so I'm throwing in a couple first round leader bets on two guys that have traditionally started off well at this event.
Bubba 40/1
Billy Ho 50/1
Tee to Green has been decent and that 7th place finish last year is promising.
As of now there seems to be a slight wind advantage for the afternoon wave tomorrow so I'm throwing in a couple first round leader bets on two guys that have traditionally started off well at this event.
Bubba 40/1
Billy Ho 50/1
quote:
I’m surprised Scottie is getting triggered by your model. I thought Plantation was the only tourney he played in and everybody murdered that course.
Tee to Green has been decent and that 7th place finish last year is promising.
This post was edited on 2/9/22 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 2/11/22 at 11:10 am to ATLsuTiger
Live bet KH FRL and turned this week into a freeroll! 
Going back to KH for 2nd Rd leader today at +750
Also added Theegala live @ 50/1 To Win and doubled him with both Rams and Bengals.
Going back to KH for 2nd Rd leader today at +750
Also added Theegala live @ 50/1 To Win and doubled him with both Rams and Bengals.
Posted on 2/11/22 at 1:50 pm to ATLsuTiger
Damn y’all nailed this tournament. It’s Theegala and then all the elite pros tearing this course up.
Posted on 2/12/22 at 8:56 am to wutangfinancial
Added:
Xander + Rams ML 15/1
Gooch 35/1
Xander + Rams ML 15/1
Gooch 35/1
Posted on 2/12/22 at 6:45 pm to ATLsuTiger
Sahith held up today. Kid is impressive I’m cheering for him. It’s going to be freaking tough with all the names chancing him.
Posted on 2/12/22 at 7:17 pm to wutangfinancial
Gritty comeback after the double bogey. Sponsor's exemption and leading heading into the final round. Impressive stuff from Theegala.
My live adds today:
Hadwin 3RL 6/1
Deki 50/1
JT 100/1
Kizzire 110/1
Kisner 40/1
Hadwin + Rams ML 24/1
Scottie + Rams ML 83/1
Homa + Rams ML + Fox(DPTour) + Israel(UFC) 93/1
Gave some back on that Hadwin 3RL bet but Bovada hung a -1000 on Theegala 3RL after his flop shot to inside 2ft on 18 so I max bet it.
I might play some h2h matchups tomorrow once I dig into the stats. For outrights and parlays, I've got the top of the board covered up nicely but need to dodge Cantlay, Hoge, Noren, Higgo and the rest of the sub -10 chasers. While it would be pretty cool for Sahith to pull this thing off, I personally want to see Scottie get his first PGA Tour win tomorrow.
My live adds today:
Hadwin 3RL 6/1
Deki 50/1
JT 100/1
Kizzire 110/1
Kisner 40/1
Hadwin + Rams ML 24/1
Scottie + Rams ML 83/1
Homa + Rams ML + Fox(DPTour) + Israel(UFC) 93/1
Gave some back on that Hadwin 3RL bet but Bovada hung a -1000 on Theegala 3RL after his flop shot to inside 2ft on 18 so I max bet it.
I might play some h2h matchups tomorrow once I dig into the stats. For outrights and parlays, I've got the top of the board covered up nicely but need to dodge Cantlay, Hoge, Noren, Higgo and the rest of the sub -10 chasers. While it would be pretty cool for Sahith to pull this thing off, I personally want to see Scottie get his first PGA Tour win tomorrow.
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