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1
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:12 pm to lsutiger2
Bet MGM has Arky -120 and us -110. Nearly a true toss up
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:22 pm to tzimme4
quote:
Another ranter that doesn't know how books make their lines. Arkansas was (+108) IN BATON ROUGE when Anderson was pitching. Then was (-120) on Saturday outside of Baton Rouge. They're not going to make LSU the favorite in an elimination game especially when Arkansas has been #1-2 in the books power rankings all-season.
And who did Anderson pitch against in that game? I didn’t say Arkansas wouldn’t be the favorite, it’ll probably be close to a pickem.
Just to play the logic game, ace vs ace, Arkansas closed at a -130, but our ace vs their bullpen, they’d be a -150. I think you’re significantly overestimating what you understand about how books make their lines. Btw, I know that’s closing line, but if you go by opening line, it makes your argument worse because it opened around -120
This post was edited on 6/18/25 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:32 pm to lance814
Anderson pitched in both and was the underdog in one and barely a favorite in the other. If Arkansas forces a must win game, they'll be the favorites in that. It's simple sport books 101.
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:35 pm to tzimme4
quote:
Anderson pitched in both and was the underdog in one and barely a favorite in the other. If Arkansas forces a must win game, they'll be the favorites in that. It's simple sport books 101.
So, you didn’t read my post at all. I said it was illogical to think they’d be a bigger favorite tomorrow than tonight with Anderson on the mound. I’m sure the sportsbook only factors in 1 team’s pitching….
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:35 pm to tzimme4
quote:
Anderson pitched in both and was the underdog in one and barely a favorite in the other. If Arkansas forces a must win game, they'll be the favorites in that. It's simple sport books 101.
Hopefully we don't find out, but you really think it's that simple?
Arkansas would be without their top 2 starters and LSU would possibly have both.
Arkansas is barely the favorite tonight and LSU doesn't have their top 3 arms.
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:36 pm to tzimme4
You arent taking into account how the last matchup between them went, thatll matter, and who arkansas is throwing compared to last time. 5 years ago, it may not matter, not sportsbooks adjust for that
This post was edited on 6/18/25 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:36 pm to lance814
quote:
So, you didn’t read my post at all. I said it was illogical to think they’d be a bigger favorite tomorrow than tonight with Anderson on the mound. I’m sure the sportsbook only factors in 1 team’s pitching….
It's ridiculous for him to assume that without knowing what arms would be left.
Pretty much everybody has said Arkansas would be the favorites tonight and LSU tomorrow.
Again, hopefully it doesn't come to that.
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:38 pm to JimTiger72
quote:
Odds to win it all: LSU +100 Ark +280
Because Arkansas has to beat LSU twice vs LSU needing 1 win
Posted on 6/18/25 at 3:49 pm to tzimme4
Lol you are being a vagina
Posted on 6/18/25 at 5:56 pm to jacksajester
quote:
Who would have thought that
Apparently YOU, since you posted this Saturday
quote:
LSU will be eliminated by Tuesday
Posted on 6/18/25 at 11:47 pm to tzimme4
quote:
tzimme4
There is no way Arkansas would have been favored tomorrow after all the arms they have used up and would not be available tomorrow. They used up all of their tops arms the past few games.
Zero chance they would have been favored.
LSU would have had Kade and Eyanson ready to go tomorrow and I fully believe they would have used both if necessary to win an elimination game. At that point you can't worry about the next game.
Thankfully LSU has both ready to go for the ship!
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