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Posted on 11/3/19 at 6:52 pm to StickD
If this line is so humorous how much are you putting down? Post your slip.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 6:52 pm to I-H8-BAMA
quote:
Seems fair to me. We haven't beaten them in 8 years and it's at their house. If it was in Baton Rouge you're looking at 4 points Bama. Dont see a problem.
4 points on a neutral field. Death Valley is one of the only home venues worth 4 points so it’d be a pick em at home.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 6:58 pm to StickD
It is currently 6, which is pretty damn low.
These are their closing spreads with Tuna as their QB.
Only once have they been a single digit favorite, and that was at a neutral site... it didn't go so well
These are their closing spreads with Tuna as their QB.
Only once have they been a single digit favorite, and that was at a neutral site... it didn't go so well
Posted on 11/3/19 at 7:09 pm to StickD
The grim reaper is waiting in the wings for you my friend??
Posted on 11/3/19 at 7:20 pm to StickD
quote:Way too low.
Bama 7 points, lol
Posted on 11/3/19 at 7:22 pm to StickD
Surprised its not higher.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 7:22 pm to StickD
I’m surprised it’s only 7.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 8:15 pm to StickD
Bama 7 point favorites not crazy at all. I think Bama covers that spread and then some.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 9:19 pm to WilliamTaylor21
Posted on 11/3/19 at 9:24 pm to StickD
I'd argue this: Both of these offenses can score in a hurry. So lets say its all tied at 38 with 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter and then Bama kicks a FG and on LSU's ensuing drive, we fumble and then Bama hits one of their patented slants that goes yard. Final score is 48-38 despite it being neck and neck until the final 2 minutes.
My point is that with these offenses, 7 points makes sense to me.
I still think we roll. 41-34 good guys.
My point is that with these offenses, 7 points makes sense to me.
I still think we roll. 41-34 good guys.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 9:26 pm to StickD
quote:
I'll bet my life
I love LSU more than most.
But that bet is extreme
If you die can I diddle you before you're cold?
This post was edited on 11/3/19 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 11/3/19 at 10:49 pm to StickD
quote:
I'll bet my life
Honestly I think we have a great shot to beat them...but y'all are setting yourself up for depression.
They beat us by 29 in our house last year. And there are a lot of the same players involved.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 11:17 pm to SportTiger1
Not really. Most of our receivers did not play last year. No Moss, no JaMarr Chase in last year's game, no Marshall. Really only Dillon and Jefferson from last year. No Ingram, no Stingley etc. Shelvin was not a full time player like he is this year.
We have healthier lines and deeper lines on both sides. Chaisson is playing this year and was injured for 90% of last year. We know Jeaux is a different and much better QB than last year. And of course No Brady last year. Nah..this is very much a different team than the one who lost 0-29 last year.
We have healthier lines and deeper lines on both sides. Chaisson is playing this year and was injured for 90% of last year. We know Jeaux is a different and much better QB than last year. And of course No Brady last year. Nah..this is very much a different team than the one who lost 0-29 last year.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 11:24 pm to Canwoodtiger
quote:
no JaMarr Chase in last year's game, no Marshall.
I know Marshall played and I think chase did as well. They're just greatly improved
Posted on 11/3/19 at 11:27 pm to StickD
That's what each teams numbers suggest. I figured with home field it would be closer to 9.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 11:29 pm to noonan
quote:
That's what each teams numbers suggest
I'm just curious what metrics people are looking at. The pure numbers say LSU is slightly better.
Posted on 11/3/19 at 11:55 pm to Powerman
LSU scores 20.8 points more than their opponents give up and holds their opponents to 9.21 points less than they average offensively.
O:20.8
D:-9.21
Bama scores 21.99 more and holds teams to 12.5 points less.
O:21.99
D:-12.5
So in this case, bama has slightly better numbers. This case excludes FCS opponents.
Excluding FCS opponents, bama scores a little over 4 ppg more than we do and gives up just over 5 ppg less.
Doing a simple calculation that I do puts bama as a 6.79 point favorite.
I did the same thing for some earlier games had us favored by 14 against Florida, 27 against miss state and 5 against auburn.
It's just crunching numbers though and is not real life. But as far as determining the spread, it's been pretty accurate.
Eta: something to note, LSU's opponents are scoring 30 ppg outside of their game vs us and giving up 23.3 ppg. Bama's opponents are scoring 27.75 ppg and giving up 26.6 ppg.
O:20.8
D:-9.21
Bama scores 21.99 more and holds teams to 12.5 points less.
O:21.99
D:-12.5
So in this case, bama has slightly better numbers. This case excludes FCS opponents.
Excluding FCS opponents, bama scores a little over 4 ppg more than we do and gives up just over 5 ppg less.
Doing a simple calculation that I do puts bama as a 6.79 point favorite.
I did the same thing for some earlier games had us favored by 14 against Florida, 27 against miss state and 5 against auburn.
It's just crunching numbers though and is not real life. But as far as determining the spread, it's been pretty accurate.
Eta: something to note, LSU's opponents are scoring 30 ppg outside of their game vs us and giving up 23.3 ppg. Bama's opponents are scoring 27.75 ppg and giving up 26.6 ppg.
This post was edited on 11/5/19 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 11/3/19 at 11:58 pm to noonan
Thanks. I remember you posting something similar a few weeks ago. I'll need to start looking for your posts and see how reliable these metrics are.
Posted on 11/4/19 at 12:03 am to Powerman
It's just something I like to do heading into big games. I'm getting old and playing with spreadsheets is fun I guess.
I think the game will actually be closer than those numbers suggest. They just take the full season as is and don't account for any trends or anything, such as defense playing better or Tua not being healthy.
I'm sure Vegas has something a bit more sophisticated but they likely crunch numbers in a similar way.
I think the game will actually be closer than those numbers suggest. They just take the full season as is and don't account for any trends or anything, such as defense playing better or Tua not being healthy.
I'm sure Vegas has something a bit more sophisticated but they likely crunch numbers in a similar way.
This post was edited on 11/4/19 at 12:06 am
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