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Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:06 pm to CajunFootball
Bama wins Bana's in. Why should they fall for a close game against their #1 Rival.
LSU has a chance to be the clearest #1 Team ever,
alot of football between now and the BCSCG.
LSU has a chance to be the clearest #1 Team ever,
alot of football between now and the BCSCG.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:07 pm to TigahRag
with lsu winning out and in the title game....
after looking at the computer rankings, i believe ok state will be there if they win out. computers still love them. most of the nation do not want a rematch. ok state would've won the conference.
after looking at the computer rankings, i believe ok state will be there if they win out. computers still love them. most of the nation do not want a rematch. ok state would've won the conference.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:09 pm to OLDBEACHCOMBER
quote:
Bama wins Bana's in. Why should they fall for a close game against their #1 Rival.
OSU will get in if they throttle OU on 12/3.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:20 pm to hashtag
quote:
OSU only need to swap one of those in order to get the full .960, because the highest and lowest are thrown out. That would bump them from .950 to .960 and Bama from .930 to .920.
I think that this can happen this week while OSU is at home. Plus, they'll move at least one spot up in the human polls past Arkansas. So, OSU could get half way to passing Bama while they sit at home
I calculated some numbers when I saw this on the SECr.
Assumptions:
1. OSU gets a full #2 computer average (.96)
2. Bama gets a full #3 average (.92)
3. Both receive only 2nd or 3rd place votes
If OSU can get 15 2nd place votes in the coaches and 29 2nd place votes in the Harris, they will move to number two by a margin of .000171.
eta: If OSU receives only one 4th place instead of a third place, in either poll, they are out.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:22 pm to LSUAlum2001
All this is based on computer scores though. There is 6 of them. Yes, OSU IS #2 in 4 of them, but Bama is #2 in the other 2.
What all these ESPN, CBS, Rivals, pundits may be seeing is that if Alabama destroys Auburn, and just 1 of these games this weekend (PSU, Vandy, Florida, etc) goes Bama's way, Alabama cold snag another #2 computer ranking.
How would OSU jump Bama if it's a 50/50 split between them in the computers?
What all these ESPN, CBS, Rivals, pundits may be seeing is that if Alabama destroys Auburn, and just 1 of these games this weekend (PSU, Vandy, Florida, etc) goes Bama's way, Alabama cold snag another #2 computer ranking.
How would OSU jump Bama if it's a 50/50 split between them in the computers?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:23 pm to TotalYatMove
OSU is off this week. My only question is can they make up ground by sitting at home? I think it's safe to assume that Bama is going to roll over Auburn by 4 TD's or more.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:27 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
OSU is off this week. My only question is can they make up ground by sitting at home? I think it's safe to assume that Bama is going to roll over Auburn by 4 TD's or more.
THIS^
And it works both way. Bama would make up some ground in 1 or maybe more of those computers. I this is what CBS, ESPN, Rivals guys are looking at. It's going to end up being a split or ,possibly, Bama advantage in the computers. That's why they already predict the rematch. Stewart Mandel of SI has OSU beating OU, but still says Fiesta.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:28 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
PSU, Vandy, Florida, etc goes Bama's way
PSU- No chance against Wisconsin.
Vandy- Has a good chance against Wake.
UF- I think FSU rises to the challange.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:28 pm to CajunFootball
This weekend's other matchups will determine that. Bama could gain, lose or remain the same depending on the outcomes of a few games. I haven't really looked at each individual computer score, so I am not sure how close Bama's scores are on an individual basis.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:30 pm to RollTideRockStar
OSU plays on Conference Championship week. So if they can bounce back and ROLL over OU then I will bet a 1 week ban they take 5/6 of the computers. If they they lose...we need VaTech to make Clemson look bad(they would be the #3 after a OSU and Arky loss).
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:40 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
How would OSU jump Bama if it's a 50/50 split between them in the computers?
there are 6 computer scores. currently 5 have OSU #2 and 2 have Bama #2. The highest and lowest get thrown out. So currently, OSU has 4 #2 and 1 #3 and Bama has 1 #2 and 4 #3.
OSU 2 2 2 2 3 3
Bama3 3 3 3 2 2
Remove the highest and lowest:
OSU 2 2 2 3
Bama3 3 3 2
And, it is more likely that Bama drops to 3 and OSU goes to 2 in one of those. So, It is more likely that it ends up:
OSU 2 2 2 2 2 3
Bama3 3 3 3 3 2
drop highest and lowest:
OSU 2 2 2 2 = 0.960
Bama 3 3 3 3 = 0.920
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:48 pm to Chicken
quote:
Rag, the difference between now and 2006 is that the Michigan/Ohio State game was played at the end of the season. Most people felt it was unsavory for them to play again so soon. Also, they didn't have to play an extra game like Florida did (ie, no conference championship). This year seems different. If Alabama handily beats Auburn, it will be hard to deny them a chance at the title.
I disagree. Bama isn't in with a win. I think what Rag says has value. Since 03 the voters have sided with conference winners. IF Okie St wins Bedlam, it will come down to what the voters want because OSU beating OU is a much better win than a unranked Aub From a computer standpoint. OSU has the computers in their corner. I think Okie St makes it if they win Bedlam. Assuming Va Tech falls in the next 2 weeks, I think they have a great shot of passing Bama as the Big 12 conf Champ.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:51 pm to RollTideRockStar
you're right, i miscounted. my point remains though. if OSU gains one more #2, then they get the benefit of being #2 completely in the computers.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:53 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
And it works both way. Bama would make up some ground in 1 or maybe more of those computers. I this is what CBS, ESPN, Rivals guys are looking at. It's going to end up being a split or ,possibly, Bama advantage in the computers. That's why they already predict the rematch. Stewart Mandel of SI has OSU beating OU, but still says Fiesta.
I thought we already discussed the national media. They do not consider what the voters will do. The computers are in favor of okie St if both bama and osu win. It will come down to the human element. If okie St gets approx 20% of the 2 votes which is possible; they are in.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:55 pm to hashtag
The thing that should concern Bama is that OSU did not drop below them after a bad loss. The chances of Bama passing them on an off week doesn't seem to likely.
After looking at the scores, Bama is ahead in the ELO Chess (98.90 to 98.03) and Peter Wolfe (8.664 to 8.639) computers by extremely slight margins.
After looking at the scores, Bama is ahead in the ELO Chess (98.90 to 98.03) and Peter Wolfe (8.664 to 8.639) computers by extremely slight margins.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:56 pm to OLDBEACHCOMBER
quote:
Rag, the difference between now and 2006 is that the Michigan/Ohio State game was played at the end of the season. Most people felt it was unsavory for them to play again so soon. Also, they didn't have to play an extra game like Florida did (ie, no conference championship).
This year seems different. If Alabama handily beats Auburn, it will be hard to deny them a chance at the title
No flame, but a 3 week difference is the rationale for voters putting BAMA in this year, but not putting in Mich. in 2006? Remember Mich. was #2 at gametime and lost by 3pts AT OSU. Personally, I had no problem with UF getting in because they won thier conf. and Mich. didn't. To me, (assuming everyone wins out) if BAMA were to get in over a one-loss conf champ (ex. OSU) then the pollsters will have done a complete 180 from 2006.
Personally, I think BAMA is the second best team in the country. Nevertheless, after the outrages of 2001 (Nebraska) and 2003 (Oklahoma) I can't see the human polls keeping BAMA ahead of OSU or Va. Tech.
quote:.
Why should they fall for a close game against their #1 Rival
Lloyd Carr still want the answer to that one
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:56 pm to TotalYatMove
Team #1 #2 #3 #4 votes Computer
Bama 0.6--- 0.3--- 0.1--- 0 --- .9
Ark 0.3--- 0.3--- 0.2--- 0.2--- .9
LSU 0.1--- 0.2--- 0.3--- 0.4--- .98
OSU 0--- 0.2--- 0.4--- 0.4--- .98
If we assume ARK beats LSU, Bama beats UGA, OSU beats OU, the final vote breaks down like this and my computer score is accurate: it would be LSU v Bama in a rematch. I think that is pretty close to what it could be. I don't know if ARK would actually split the computers with Bama, but I'm being conservative.
Bama 0.6--- 0.3--- 0.1--- 0 --- .9
Ark 0.3--- 0.3--- 0.2--- 0.2--- .9
LSU 0.1--- 0.2--- 0.3--- 0.4--- .98
OSU 0--- 0.2--- 0.4--- 0.4--- .98
If we assume ARK beats LSU, Bama beats UGA, OSU beats OU, the final vote breaks down like this and my computer score is accurate: it would be LSU v Bama in a rematch. I think that is pretty close to what it could be. I don't know if ARK would actually split the computers with Bama, but I'm being conservative.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:58 pm to C
I don't think Arky really has a horse in this race.
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