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Message
re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:04 pm to Alt26
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:04 pm to Alt26
quote:
No flame, but a 3 week difference is the rationale for voters putting BAMA in this year, but not putting in Mich. in 2006? Remember Mich. was #2 at gametime and lost by 3pts AT OSU. Personally, I had no problem with UF getting in because they won thier conf. and Mich. didn't. To me, (assuming everyone wins out) if BAMA were to get in over a one-loss conf champ (ex. OSU) then the pollsters will have done a complete 180 from 2006.
Spot on. The entire reason they gave the pollsters 2/3 of the Formula after the OU 2003 deal, was to prevent the same thing. If bama gets in without winning it's division, it would go against the very reason they altered the rules after 03. I recall "Rematch" talk up until the final poll in 06 as well.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 1:08 pm
3
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:08 pm to jdg91878
quote:
Spot on. The entire reason they gave the pollsters 2/3 of the Formula after the OU 2003 deal, was to prevent the same thing.
Everyone wanted USC in the game.
They removed SOS and BCS quality wins from the system because losses like ND to Syracuse in the final week of the regular season moved USC behind us to #3 and kept them out.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:08 pm to jdg91878
quote:
Spot on. The entire reason they gave the pollsters 2/3 of the Formula after the OU 2003 deal, was to prevent the same thing. If bama gets in without winning it's division, it would go against the very reason they altered the rules after 03
I think this is the difference maker. I think that if OK State wins, it's computer numbers will tip the balance towards them, at least to the point where they need alot less of the human voters, who will even more so be prompted to make an arguement against a rematch with a viable 1-loss conference champion.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:13 pm to jdg91878
What I've learned from past experience is that the whole landscape could change in two weeks. I suspect we haven't seen all the surprises.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:16 pm to SLTiger29
Man doing the numbers, I'm feeling really good about us going to the SECCG no matter the outcome this weekend.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:18 pm to C
quote:
I'm feeling really good about us going to the SECCG no matter the outcome this weekend
So you like LSU can lose and still stay #1?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:22 pm to CajunFootball
^^ that seems to be a very large consensus going around on ESPN as of yesterday.
read this if you havent already..
lsu/bama stays idle in the rankings, and LSU still goes to atlanta....
LINK
read this if you havent already..
lsu/bama stays idle in the rankings, and LSU still goes to atlanta....
LINK
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:23 pm to hashtag
quote:
you're right, i miscounted. my point remains though. if OSU gains one more #2, then they get the benefit of being #2 completely in the computers.
Only based on this "made up ground" though. Remember the candle burns both ways. A victory over OU would make up some. But Iowa State still has Kansas State and Oklahoma left. If they drop those 2 by convincing margins, it stains OSU even more. A win would be cancelled out almost.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:25 pm to RollTideRockStar
Iowa State losing isn't going to effect OSU in the computers as long as they beat OU.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:27 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
But Iowa State still has Kansas State and Oklahoma left.
Ok State has played all three teams. The results will not matter much. In fact, it's probably better that KSU and OU beat Iowa State because they would stay higher in the computer rankings.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:27 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
So you like LSU can lose and still stay #1?
That's a massive assumption not a fact. If it were, the media would be saying "LSU has locked the SEC West and are the divisional champs."
No 1 is saying it.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:30 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
Iowa State losing isn't going to effect OSU in the computers as long as they beat OU.
this, I think there are no remaining out of conference games for the Big 12 that should change Ok State's computer ranking prior to the bowl season
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:31 pm to hashtag
quote:
Ok State has played all three teams. The results will not matter much. In fact, it's probably better that KSU and OU beat Iowa State because they would stay higher in the computer rankings.
But a 6-6 ISU goes even lower. Results of computer rankings have been the main argument so far.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:32 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
But a 6-6 ISU goes even lower.
and 2 loss OU and KSU stay higher. Either of those teams dropping would hurt more than ISU dropping.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:36 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
RollTideRockStar
The thing is you have three teams(all of which OSU will have played). You can only have at most 2 winners and as few as 1.
Iowa State(Unranked)
#12 Oklahoma
#16 K-State
It hurts OSU more if either OU or K-State lose and fall in the rankings. If OU beats ISU this week they could move back into the top 10. That REALLY helps OSU in the human polls.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:44 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
If OU beats ISU this week they could move back into the top 10. That REALLY helps OSU in the human polls.
The human element is in favor of Alabama. They are already set on a rematch. OSU will get no help from human voters as resulted in being #6 in both polls. If the voters really wanted to forgive OSU, they would have put them above Stanford and Va Tech. It's the computers that would put OSU in the title game.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:49 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
It's the computers that would put OSU in the title game
They've done it before.
quote:
they would have put them above Stanford and Va Tech.
Lets look at it like this. They are currently #6 and will move up to #5 this week with a Arky loss. They will jump Stanford for #4 with a win over OU(winning the B12 and Stanford not winning the PAC). They then just need VaTech to lose to either Virgina or Clemson(already did once). That moves them to #3 in the humans.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:49 pm to hashtag
quote:
and 2 loss OU and KSU stay higher. Either of those teams dropping would hurt more than ISU dropping
Not sure how much credit OU would get for beating 6-4 ISU. Or K State for beating a 6-5 ISU. I think they would serve par. ISU dropping more cancels it out. Tit for tat really.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:55 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
The human element is in favor of Alabama. They are already set on a rematch. OSU will get no help from human voters as resulted in being #6 in both polls. If the voters really wanted to forgive OSU, they would have put them above Stanford and Va Tech. It's the computers that would put OSU in the title game.
meh
Harris Poll 2006
Week 14:
1. OSU
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Florida
Week 15
1. OSU
2. FLorida (received 1 first place vote)
3. Michigan
4. LSU
Coaches Poll 2006
Week 14
1. OSU
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Florida
Week 15
1. OSU
2. Florida
3. Michigan
4. LSU
USC lost. No one wanted a rematch of OSU/Michigan so they voted accordingly.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:56 pm to CajunFootball
quote:
It's the computers that would put OSU in the title game
They've done it before
Argument sustained.
However it is a bigger assumption than fact they would do it this year than people realize. quote:
Lets look at it like this. They are currently #6 and will move up to #5 this week with a Arky loss. They will jump Stanford for #4 with a win over OU(winning the B12 and Stanford not winning the PAC). They then just need VaTech to lose to either Virgina or Clemson(already did once). That moves them to #3 in the humans.
Yes but obviously the people did not think OSU deserved to be in the top 5 to begin with with one 1 week for them to go. They are off this week. Alabama should be able to lock the computers in a tie for this week. So for OSU to jump Alabama, even if all that goes down that you're saying, they have to not only make up the ground now, but the ground gained during the off week in 1 victory. Even if it's over OU. Very doubtful.
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