- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Winter Olympics
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:05 pm to tigersruledude
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:05 pm to tigersruledude
In the Okie State scenario, which I think is the only viable alternative to Alabama for #2 in the BCS (assumes LSU winning out), I believe the biggest factor is of a psychological nature.
If Virginia can beat Virginia Tech (game decides ACC division winner and is being played at Virginia), and Notre Dame upsets Stanford (mild upset), that will pave the way for a #3 ranked (human polls) Oklahoma State team to jump Bama the last weekend of the season with a win over Oklahoma. In fact, I would go so far as to say Oklahoma State, in this scenario is in the driver's seat with a win over Oklahoma the only thing standing in their way.
If Oklahoma State is #5 going into the last weekend, I don't see voters jumping them all the way to #2 with a win over OU. To make matters worse, if VTech and Stanford win out, then votes will be spread across all 3 teams for 3rd, 4th and 5th. That destroys Oklahoma State's chances, no matter how much of an advantage they have in the computer polls over Alabama.
I think the answer lies in the Stanford/Notre Dame and Virginia Tech/Virginia games. One of those, at a minimum, needs to fall Oklahoma State's way. And most likely, both.
If Virginia can beat Virginia Tech (game decides ACC division winner and is being played at Virginia), and Notre Dame upsets Stanford (mild upset), that will pave the way for a #3 ranked (human polls) Oklahoma State team to jump Bama the last weekend of the season with a win over Oklahoma. In fact, I would go so far as to say Oklahoma State, in this scenario is in the driver's seat with a win over Oklahoma the only thing standing in their way.
If Oklahoma State is #5 going into the last weekend, I don't see voters jumping them all the way to #2 with a win over OU. To make matters worse, if VTech and Stanford win out, then votes will be spread across all 3 teams for 3rd, 4th and 5th. That destroys Oklahoma State's chances, no matter how much of an advantage they have in the computer polls over Alabama.
I think the answer lies in the Stanford/Notre Dame and Virginia Tech/Virginia games. One of those, at a minimum, needs to fall Oklahoma State's way. And most likely, both.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 5:10 pm
1
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:06 pm to TriumphTiger
quote:
If Okie St wins and snags 25% of the 2nd place votes plus 75% of the 3rd place votes, it's an absolute tie with Bama for #2. I'd say that gives Bama a "very likely", but in no way a "lock".
If okie St were to win bedlam, wouldn't voters be tempted to put okie St 2 simply because bama couldn't even win their division but okie St won the big 12. I can definitely see 26% of voters jumping bama and putting okie St 2 and bama 3 if this were to happen especially if va tech loses.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:09 pm to islstl
quote:
Now if you're one of the believers that not one human voter will place Arkansas above Alabama, and that LSU will fall no further than #3, then Arkansas would need every voter to place them 2nd on their ballot and LSU #3 on every ballot.
This sounds promising. No way LSU is #3 on every ballot, I'd even guess LSU remains #1 on a couple of ballots
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:12 pm to jdg91878
quote:
If okie St were to win bedlam, wouldn't voters be tempted to put okie St 2 simply because bama couldn't even win their division but okie St won the big 12. I can definitely see 26% of voters jumping bama and putting okie St 2 and bama 3 if this were to happen especially if va tech loses.
I'm just trying to wrap my head around noticing OSU's favoritism when it comes down to scenarios like this.
"OSU will be #2 if this team loses, if that team loses, if they win Bedlem, if they can jump Bama in the computers, if they can sway 25% of the vote."
Yet the consensus is all Alabama has to do is beat Auburn.
How are they a favorite again to play for the NC?
The more and more I look at this (all math aside) the more I think people are reaching....
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:12 pm to jdg91878
quote:
If okie St were to win bedlam, wouldn't voters be tempted to put okie St 2 simply because bama couldn't even win their division but okie St won the big 12. I can definitely see 26% of voters jumping bama and putting okie St 2 and bama 3 if this were to happen especially if va tech loses.
Listen to the talking heads the night of December 3rd after the Oklahoma State win. If the overwhelming feeling is Alabama is your deserved #2, then that's likely the way the voters fall. If there is a change of heart because Oklahoma State just trounced Oklahoma 59-21, then watch out. It's anybody's ballgame. And likely Okie State is playing LSU.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:13 pm to islstl
quote:
If Virginia can beat Virginia Tech (game decides ACC division winner and is being played at Virginia), and Notre Dame upsets Stanford (mild upset), that will pave the way for a #3 ranked (human polls) Oklahoma State team to jump Bama the last weekend of the season with a win over Oklahoma. In fact, I would go so far as to say Oklahoma State, in this scenario is in the driver's seat with a win over Oklahoma the only thing standing in their way.
I agree and this is why the Gump on this board should not speak in absolutes. A lot can happen between now and Dec 4.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:16 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
I'm just trying to wrap my head around noticing OSU's favoritism when it comes down to scenarios like this.
Basically the same thing that prevented Michigan from maintaining the 2 ranking in 06. They didn't win their conference. I continue to say bama has a shot but to just plainly say okie St is out is not correct. These emotions weigh heavy on voters since the debacle of 03. The worst thing that could happen is bama gets in loses again and okie St pounds their opponent in the bowl game. My last post was the opinion that it is not that hard to fathom 26% of voters putting okie St 2 if okie St wins bedlam. The voters are spread nationally Not all in Alabama. Believe it or not, everyone doesn't want to see the rematch.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 5:22 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:16 pm to islstl
quote:
I'd like to get Matt's opinion on all of this.
I saw where you wrote this yesterday, and I liked your way of presenting this. To keep the argument simple and more succinct, if you believe:
1. Almost all voters put Bama over Arky by virtue of their 24 pt victory AND
2. No voters drop LSU below #3
Then it is impossible for LSU to be left out of the SECCG. Once I thought of it more in those terms I became much more confident. I don't like to think to think of computer ranking in terms of raw numbers though (it confuses people). My guess is that the computers look like:
1.5 LSU
1.5 OSU (i.e. OSU and LSU split 1 and 2)
3.5 Bama
3.5 Arkansas (i.e. Bama and Arky split 3 and 4)
That is what gives you the ability to be one full spot below Arkansas in the human polls.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:20 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
if they can jump Bama in the computers, if they can sway 25% of the vote."
Yet the consensus is all Alabama has to do is beat Auburn
OSU is already ahead of Bama in the computers, if they win out they will remain there.
The consensus you speak of is based on the most recent results. OSU lost this week, so they dropped. Its not a reach at all, given past history to think 26% of the voters will put an OSU team that wins its conference, beating a top 10-15 OU in the process, while Bama is idle.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:26 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
The consensus you speak of is based on the most recent results. OSU lost this week, so they dropped. Its not a reach at all, given past history to think 26% of the voters will put an OSU team that wins its conference, beating a top 10-15 OU in the process, while Bama is idle.
Okie St, at that point, would also have more quality wins. The fact this is bama is the only reason we are debating. Okie St has the better argument IMO; conference winner, more quality wins, etc.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:27 pm to H-Town Tiger
I just want to throw up with all of these scenarios. PLEASE OSU be #2 so that the reserves I bought will get my husband (and me) to the BCSNCG ... it's our 20th anniversary in January and we were there in 2003 and 2007.
I may need a 2 week supply of xanax to get through all of this. Really.
Thanks again lsumatt ... guru.
I may need a 2 week supply of xanax to get through all of this. Really.
Thanks again lsumatt ... guru.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:28 pm to jdg91878
quote:
Basically the same thing that prevented Michigan from maintaining the 2 ranking in 06. They didn't win their conference. I continue to say bama has a shot but to just plainly say okie St is out is not correct. These emotions weigh heavy on voters since the debacle of 03. The worst thing that could happen is bama gets in loses again and okie St pounds their opponent in the bowl game.
Michigan, Ohio State 2006 - I explained this above. People were sckeptical already of how stong those teams really were outside the Big 10.
Michigan played Vandy, Central Mich, Ball State
Ohio State played Cinci, Bowling Green, Northen Illinois.
Only 1 marquee game between them with tOSU vs Texas.
Voters were right. Michigan was blown out by USCw. Ohio State by FL.Not the same with Alabama, LSU 2011. We KNOW they are as good as advertised.
As for voters remembering debacles:
Some fanbases can't even rememeber their coach winning a NC 2 years ago and want them fired after 1 bad season.
You think voters are going to go back 9 years?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:29 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
I'm just trying to wrap my head around noticing OSU's favoritism when it comes down to scenarios like this.
"OSU will be #2 if this team loses, if that team loses, if they win Bedlem, if they can jump Bama in the computers, if they can sway 25% of the vote."
Yet the consensus is all Alabama has to do is beat Auburn.
How are they a favorite again to play for the NC?
The more and more I look at this (all math aside) the more I think people are reaching....
Because Bama is a solid #2 in the human polls and that makes up 2/3 of the score. The reason no one is talking about any of this is the talking heads are way too stupid to even look at the computer poll side of things and don't realize just how close Oklahoma State could be to overtaking Alabama. And that's the truth. These people are mentally lazy.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:38 pm to islstl
quote:
These people are mentally lazy.
With all due respect. THESE people are making millions with vast resources beyond anyone on this board's reach.
Jerry Palm, CBS
LINK
Mark Schlaback, ESPN
LINK
Gene Wojciechowski, ESPN
LINK
Brad Edwards, ESPN
"If Alabama beats Auburn, they could clinch a spot in the BCSNCG"
Stewart Mandel, SI
LINK
CBS+ESPN+SI alone = the worth of a small country maybe even more.
They have to see something. Not much point in putting something out there that a regular joe could smack down.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 5:39 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 5:57 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
With all due respect. THESE people are making millions with vast resources beyond anyone on this board's reach.
Jerry Palm, CBS
LINK
Mark Schlaback, ESPN
LINK
Gene Wojciechowski, ESPN
LINK
Brad Edwards, ESPN
"If Alabama beats Auburn, they could clinch a spot in the BCSNCG"
Stewart Mandel, SI
LINK
CBS+ESPN+SI alone = the worth of a small country maybe even more.
They have to see something. Not much point in putting something out there that a regular joe could smack down.
You did see the part about me referring to the talking heads?
I don't consider either Plam or Edwards talking heads. They are well respected and know exactly what they speak of. They don't expect things to fall Oklahoma State's way, mainly because a whole host of things need to happen.
But no one on this Earth can say with certainly that Alabama is a lock with a win over Auburn. In fact Edwards uses the word "could". He doesn't even go so far as to say it's a definite.
This is all speculation about a series of events that could or could not take place.
But I guarantee you that the other guys you mentioned don't refer to computer polls anywhere in their article. And it gets much worse with all the idiots on ESPN.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:35 pm to islstl
I will just say this. When LSU beats Arky things are gonna start changing fast for Bama. OSU will climb one spot in the human polls and could even gain ground in the computer poll. This all while OSU sits at home.
If OSU gains while idle, which is a guarantee if LSU wins, how much more can they gain after beating OU while Bama sits at home?
If OSU gains while idle, which is a guarantee if LSU wins, how much more can they gain after beating OU while Bama sits at home?
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 6:39 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:46 pm to jdg91878
quote:
If okie St were to win bedlam, wouldn't voters be tempted to put okie St 2 simply because bama couldn't even win their division but okie St won the big 12. I can definitely see 26% of voters jumping bama and putting okie St 2 and bama 3 if this were to happen especially if va tech loses.
For sure. I think "all" OSU has to do is give the voters a legitimate option to avoid a rematch and they'll take it. Easier said than done of course because they'd have to beat OU in Bedlam.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:06 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
OSU's OOC opponents were Tulsa, LA Laf, and Arizona. Those schools keep losing. Arizona plays LA Laf next and Tulsa plays Houston.
Tulsa has at least a 6 game winning streak. Just pointing out how little homework you did on the matter. Not that it matters. You clearly don't understand the computers if you think Bama will hold its ground or make up ground on OSU.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:16 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
You clearly don't understand the computers if you think Bama will hold its ground or make up ground on OSU.
Yeah, I'm not sure where the confusion is. If LSU, Bama and OSU win the computer polls will be:
LSU 1.000
OSU 0.960
Bama 0.920
That's a fact.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:26 pm to hashtag
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 7:28 pm
Page 28 of 36
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News