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re: Its Ross tonight
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:19 pm to Lester Earl
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:19 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
if we have to go to Cain, or Bert, i get worried. Byrd too.
I agree...although i really like Bert against their guys...
Im hoping for the Ross/Bradshaw show to take us the distance....
0
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:25 pm to AtlantaLSUfan
quote:
My girlfriend (UGA grad) was watching at her house and she usually hates this stuff. That was the best drama on tv last night for sure.
Then maybe you didn't catch Zach Morris's new legal drama, Raising the Bar, last night hoss
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:25 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
stupid strategy
hope this isnt Mainieri's train of thought.
You're an idiot. The only person who has agreed with you is a texas fan which proves your an idiot.
Thank God we have a coach with good sense who is going to win this thing for us with a good strategy and doesn't play into what texas would rather us do (pitch an unrested AR and put their better bullpen against ours in the third game).
This post was edited on 6/23/09 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:26 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
a 20 year old on 3 days after throwing 70 pitches shouldn't be any more fatigued that if he got an extra day.
He has thrown on 6 days rest all year. The difference between 3 and 4 is pretty damn big.
quote:
I dont see why we just dont start him to begin with
Because you stand to lose something tomorrow if you throw him as a starter tonight.
So, the question is, what is the best case scenario if you start him tonight? Mainieri thinks it is about 5 innings...potentially without Ott to back him up. And, if you end up losing this game, then everything you are worried about tonight, is still a problem tomorrow.
Risk>>>>>Reward.
You aren't talking about a rested Ranaudo. It is by far his shortest rest in the most extreme heat setting all year.
What do you think the best case scenario would be for Ranaudo if he started today?
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:30 pm to TigerWilson88
quote:
Thank God we have a coach with good sense who is going to win this thing for us with a good strategy and doesn't play into what texas would rather us do (pitch an unrested AR and put their better bullpen against ours in the third game)
his strategy is that Randaudo isn't 100%
not that Texas is going to throw all of their arms tonight and concede tomorrow, then it will be a cake walk because we have Ranaudo going and they have no one.
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:32 pm to moneyg
quote:
What do you think the best case scenario would be for Ranaudo if he started today?
best case, 7 innings if he pitches well.
but prob more along the lines of 5-6 innings depending on pitch count
if it was hot yesterday, and hot today, it will be hot tomorrow and he likely wont be able to go any longer than that anyway.
quote:
Because you stand to lose something tomorrow if you throw him as a starter tonight.
the same way you stand to lose something today if you throw him tomorrow.
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:35 pm to tigamike
Hope I'm wrong, but I think Texas will hit Ross pretty easily. He is more of a fastball pitcher and that was what they were hitting over the fence last night. I think only one of the homers last night was a breaking ball.
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:40 pm to Krypto
quote:
i dunno man, our bullpen has been dealing lately. i wouldnt mind getting about 5 innings out of our pen. hopefully our offense will take care of business, but i dont think 5 innings is too much to ask considering how well theyve done lately. and i don't see texas hitting 600 home runs again today, but we'll see.
+1 as it's going to take a total team effort to bring the trophy home!
If Texas hits 5 homeruns again tonight we just have to score 1 more, that's all it takes.
But here's to Ross having a great game, our bats coming alive, and the bullpen turning off the lights on the way out.
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:45 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
the same way you stand to lose something today if you throw him tomorrow.
Here's the logic behind it:
If you start Ranaudo, and they use the remaining bit of good pitching staff they have.. You maybe have a 35 to 40% chance of losing. If you lose, the next game you both have to throw a lot of weak pitchers and your chances of losing are closer to 50%, especially if you lost with Ranaudo pitching before.
If you don't start Ranaudo, you have about a 55% chance of losing. If you do lose, the next game you throw your well rested ace against their junk bullpen and you've got yourself almost a sure victory. Over all percentages for a winning outcome increase. It is like a chess game..
This post was edited on 6/23/09 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:45 pm to Krypto
quote:
He is more of a fastball pitcher
I thought he was more of a breaking ball type guy with a better fastball(mph wise) than Coleman?
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:46 pm to JFremani
where are those percentages from?
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:47 pm to JFremani
quote:
If you start Ranaudo, and they use the remaining bit of good pitching staff they have.. You maybe have a 35 to 40% chance of losing. If you lose, the next game you both have to throw a lot of weak pitchers and your chances of losing are closer to 50%, especially if you lost with Ranaudo pitching before.
If you don't start Ranaudo, you have about a 55% chance of losing. If you do lose, the next game you throw your well rested ace against their junk bullpen and you've got yourself almost a sure victory. Over all percentages for a winning outcome increase. It is like a chess game..
I think your core logic holds but where the frick did you get those numbers from?
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:49 pm to MileHigh
quote:
I think your core logic holds but where the frick did you get those numbers from?
They are hypothetical. I have no idea what PM's actual calculations were. He won't return my phone calls.
This post was edited on 6/23/09 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 6/23/09 at 1:59 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
the same way you stand to lose something today if you throw him tomorrow.
NO actually we need one more win. If we throw him tonight it's going to be against a texas squad throwing their best pitures. Tomorrow night it will be against a texas squad who has already burned their best pitchers. I'll take a win tomorrow as well as a win tonight. We only need one win and the advantage is more in our favor tomorrow (AR rested against 3rd string pitching) than it is tonight. In summary: losing today is much less of a loss than losing something tomorrow.
This post was edited on 6/23/09 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 6/23/09 at 2:00 pm to JFremani
I like this, Ross' coolness and calmness might be an advantage over Ranaudo's emotion
I'm so fricking pumped, I know Ross is going to shove it down their fricking throats
#6!!!
I'm so fricking pumped, I know Ross is going to shove it down their fricking throats
#6!!!
Posted on 6/23/09 at 2:04 pm to DBG
quote:
#6!!!
Um, Ross is #12
Posted on 6/23/09 at 2:04 pm to JFremani
quote:
Over all percentages for a winning outcome increase. It is like a chess game..
I think it's more like a baseball game, you play to win the game tonight, the only reason AR won't pitch tonight is because the coach doesn't think he's ready. If UT exhausts most of its pitching tonight, then Ross or Ranaudo would be pretty much an advantage tomorrow.
Posted on 6/23/09 at 2:05 pm to TigerWilson88
quote:
texas squad throwing their best pitures
By far the best spelling of pitcher I've ever seen
Posted on 6/23/09 at 2:05 pm to GoldenBoy
quote:
Um, Ross is #12
swing and a miss....
Posted on 6/23/09 at 2:07 pm to Krypto
quote:
Ross is more of a fastball pitcher
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