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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 1/8/09 at 8:23 am to ItNeverRains
quote:
I think 3 loss team is realistic, 4 loss a little dissappointing, 2 loss (or less) over-achieving.
I agree...I see a loss vs. Florida and on the road at Ole Miss. I think they can take UGA on the road.
I see 2 0r 3 losses next year.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 8:29 am to TopWaterTiger
Let's not shoot for the moon !!
Tigers must regroup and remain FOCUSED.
2009 season 9-3
Tigers must regroup and remain FOCUSED.
2009 season 9-3
Posted on 1/8/09 at 8:43 am to EZ2BLSU
I see losses to Florida and Ole Miss. I see Ole Miss winning the west. I know... kill myself. Just the way I see it. That Ole Miss game is going to be the best one since Eli tripped.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 8:44 am to RobbBobb
quote:
RobbBobb
You and Sammich are the dumbest motherfrickers I've ever encountered on the internet. Congrats.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 8:51 am to lsuwill16
Nice prediction, but 10 - 2 or 9 - 3 is more realistic.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 10:01 am to ELVIS U
8-4
Posted on 1/8/09 at 10:17 am to Cornholio
A lot can happen between now and August.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 11:39 am to AlexLSU
quote:So now you think that the QBs play against each other? What, you think Jordan Jefferson will be blitzing Joe Cox from the end?
True sophomore with 2 1/2 starts is light years ahead of a senior with similar career snaps?
Their QB next year is likely to be not as good as their QB this year. Our QB next year is likely to be better than our QB this year. Improvement at our QB position and regression at their QB position would most likely result in a more favorable outcome for us. Since we only lost by 2 TDs with one of the worst defenses in the history of LSU, expecting that more favorable outcome to actually be a win if far from unreasonable.
quote:And since you yourself noted the 52 we gave up to them this year, I would have thought that you would realize our two most important losses (Mallory and Peveto) were beneficial.
Their defense is set, ours isn't. They lost less than we did this year.
quote:So you're going with the assumption that our new defense next year -- with a coaching staff totally unrelated to this year's -- must necessarily be the same as this year's rather than more similar to the defenses LSU has had every other year under Miles. That's logical. I mean, why wouldn't someone assume every future result will be similar to the result that occurred 25% of the time in the past?
Because we've seen a total of zero games under it.
You should take that "logic" to the gambling tables. Bet even money on every 1 in 4 proposition you can find. You're sure to clean up.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 11:52 am to AlexLSU
quote:Well, our average performance under Miles has shown those people to be much less "retarded" than those predicting 4-5 losses.
Notice the term ranter was coined from the rant? This board is littered with dumbasses who think we'll go undefeated every year.
Anyone using the term "objective" in a post predicting more than 2 losses next year is laughable. "Objective" viewers would note that seasons of more than 2 losses under Miles are an anomaly; so much so that it is in fact a unique occurrance.
Tell me, do you grasp the concept that teams change from year to year? You keep insisting that optimistic predictions are "stupid" and "homer"ish, and offer absolutely nothing but the performance of teams in 2008 as your "proof."
How, exactly, do you think LSU went from being a National Championship team in 2007 to losing 5 games in 2008? And what, exactly, leads you to believe that no other team is susceptible to those same factors?
Bottom line is this: there is no evidence whatsoever that is available to anyone on this board that even strongly suggests (much less "proves") that LSU will struggle anywhere near the level it did in 2008. Obviously it is a possibility, but the only rational conclusions that can be drawn from an observation of LSU football that extends back further than the 2008 season is that we will be much more successful in 2009 than we were in 2008. The talent is in ample supply, the specific issues that dominated the struggles of 2008 (brand new QBs and new DCs) have been changed, and the head coach who oversaw 2-loss seasons 75% of the time is still in place.
It is irrational to assume that 3 QBs with significant starting experience will perform similarly to 3 QBs with zero starting experience and almost zero college experience at all. It is irrational to assume that a DC with 14 years of successful SEC experience as a DC will perform similarly to Co-DCs who had never spent a day as an SEC Coordinator. And yet, both of those assumptions are necessary to support the notion that we will suffer similar struggles next year. And without that notion, your insistance that this year's results make optimistic predictions for next year "stupid" is simply unsupported.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 12:12 pm to AlexLSU
quote:How does the fact you pick some other team over LSU make you unbiased?
The fact that I respect their program and pick them over us does not make me a Bama fan; it makes me unbiased
The only thing that would make you unbiased it to pick the better team. And, as of yet, you have offered no rational explaination for believing Bama will be better than us. The fact that they beat us in '08 does not on its face logically support the conclusion that they will beat us in '09 (cf., '07-'08 results, '02-'03 results, '01-'02 results). Nor does the fact that we lose significant personnell support that conclusion, as we have seen multiple instances of teams losing significant personnel and yet beating teams who beat them the previous season (cf., the 2003 team beating Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas despite losing 5 defensive starters: LB Bradie James, LB Jeremy Lawrence, DT Kenderick Allen, CB Demetrius Hookfin and SS Norman LeJeune).
quote:Okay, so which of the teams that beat us and "lose less" than us do you expect us to beat next year, and why do you believe it would happen with just that one (or two) but not any of the rest?
I think we'll go 10-3 or 9-4, which isn't that bad.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 12:14 pm to AlexLSU
quote:Well, when one person thinks we're going 11-1 or 12-0, and another thinks we're going 9-4, and we end up 11-2 or 12-2, the 9-4 is not "smarter." It's not "more objective" either. It's just wronger.
The fact that people think we're going 11-1 or 12-0 every year makes them dumb, and since I don't think that, yes, I'm smarter.
So, 75% of the time since Les got here, the people predicting zero or one loss have been "righter" than the people predicting 4 losses. They've also been more objective.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 12:16 pm to King Joey
10-2
Posted on 1/8/09 at 12:19 pm to TulaneTigerFan
quote:
why so hostile? it's a legit possibility
Not since the early 80's
Posted on 1/8/09 at 12:25 pm to AlexLSU
quote:What? He took a 10-win, top 10, SEC Championship Team and turned them into an unranked 8-5 team in his 3rd season.
He did the same thing for an LSU team that was mediocre in 2002, turning them around big time.
quote:Why? He took a 9-3 team that wasn't even in the top 15 and turned them into an 11-win top 5 team, despite a hurricane?
I don't think Les can do that unless a bunch of teams just implode.
quote:But how many have both? Florida and Ole Miss both come to LSU; we have more experience than Georgia (new RB and we have 3 QBs with more starts than Cox).
As hard as it is for LSU fans to realize, those four teams we play in big games have a better set of circumstances than us (either more experience or homefield advantage)
I don't know why you believe "objective" has to mean "assuming the worst for LSU", but that's simply not the case. None of 2005, 2006 or 2007 were either best-case or worst-case scenarios breaks-wise (though 2005 was pretty close to a "worst case" for us). The results were pretty consistent. 2008 was WAY more "bad breaks" than "good breaks", and the result was a WILDLY anomalous disappointing season.
To assume another season would be more similar to the radical anomaly than the consistent results is simply irrational. And not even the least bit objective.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 12:35 pm to AlexLSU
quote:Remember how many people said we couldn't possibly reload after losing Russel, Landry, Bowe and Davis? Were they being "objective"? Were the people saying we'd be just fine in '07 just being "homers"?
Remember how most people believed we'd just "reload" this year after last year's team? A lot of people thought we'd even be better on offense.
We replaced our QB (possibly the best in LSU history), our two top WRs (both 1st rounders) and the most successful (at the time) OC in program history, and were better than next year. And that is hardly anomalous in recent LSU history. Look at all we lost off that 2002 team (including Bradie James, LeBrandon Toefield and Dominick Davis). Sometimes the guys replacing them really do perform better, and it's neither stupid nor "homerish" to predict it. No more so than it is "smart" or "objective" to predict they won't. In fact, with our recent history of recruiting talent and replacing talent, it takes a bit of bias to suggest that they won't.
Posted on 1/8/09 at 12:41 pm to lsuwill16
The defense will be better, but the offense will still struggle. I'll say 9-3.
Posted on 1/9/09 at 7:36 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
You and Sammich are the dumbest motherfrickers I've ever encountered on the internet
Yeah, you're right. Who in the world would believe LSU was capable of having a 1-loss season.
LINK
LSU preseason #5
Corso says #4
LINK
LSU #9
Herbie?, Yeah Herbie said LSU is capable of winning the SEC (meaning another BCS) if Fla stumbles.
We're all just dumb stupid frickers. All of us, well maybe just most of the sporting world who thinks LSU can return to form.
But you're the smart one. A guy from Bama. Who today wore a 2008 National Recruiting Champions t-shirt to the Wal-Mart; with "We only lost to the #1 and #2 teams in the AP poll", airbrushed on the back.
Posted on 1/9/09 at 7:41 pm to lsuwill16
Georgia, Florida, Bama, Ole Miss...I think we lose 2 of those 4 or something like that.
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