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Started By
Message
re: That 3rd and 8...Hindsight isn't 20/20.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:17 pm to TigerinCharlotte
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:17 pm to TigerinCharlotte
North Tryon
1
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:23 pm to TigerinCharlotte
quote:
I will take my chance with that if I'm Miles
You're not Miles
quote:
A first down ends it
Aren't you making a big assumption there? Incomplete pass stops the clock without Bama using timeouts. Interception ... yikes!
quote:
you're playing not to lose.
LSU was ahead. Playing not to lose would be positioning yourself for a FG to tie the game.
You're smarter than that. Had Miles thrown the ball at that point, resulting in either (1) incompletion and stopped clock or (2) interception, you know he would have been criticized mercilessly (moreso than now, if that's possible). At that point in the game, you play the percentages. The FG was well within Allemon's range, he's been relatively dependable, and the Bama offense had done NOTHING in the 2nd half. You take the points and make Bama drive the length of the field to win the game.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:24 pm to supatigah
So on the one hand, the play of the passing game is the reason you erased an 11 pt 2nd half deficit against the top defense in the country. But on the other hand, you in no way trust Mett to put the air on third down in that spot? Just for shits and giggles, lets look at some of LSU's previous third downs in the second half.
TD drive to make it 14-10 (Bama):
3rd and 7 at LSU 45 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Kadron Boone for 19 yards to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 5 at ALA 20 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Odell Beckham for 6 yards to the Alab 14 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 7 at ALA 11 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 10 yards to the Alab 1 for a 1ST down.
TD drive to make it 17-14 (LSU)
3rd and 7 at ALA 41 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 23 yards to the Alab 18 for a 1ST down.
Drive where LSU stalled out on the "Warecat"
2nd and 16 at LSU 31 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Odell Beckham for 36 yards to the Alab 33 for a 1ST down. (Yes, not a 3rd down, but I wouldn't call 2nd and 16 an ideal down and distance)
Last LSU drive before Bama regained the lead where you "in no way" would trust Mett on 3rd down.
3rd and 5 at LSU 23 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 13 yards to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 6 at LSU 40 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jeremy Hill for 7 yards to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down.
If you're keeping track at home sports fans, that 6 straight 3rd down conversions through the air in the 2nd half prior to the 3rd and 10 everyone is discussing. I certainly see why Les shouldn't have trusted Mett in that spot.
TD drive to make it 14-10 (Bama):
3rd and 7 at LSU 45 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Kadron Boone for 19 yards to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 5 at ALA 20 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Odell Beckham for 6 yards to the Alab 14 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 7 at ALA 11 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 10 yards to the Alab 1 for a 1ST down.
TD drive to make it 17-14 (LSU)
3rd and 7 at ALA 41 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 23 yards to the Alab 18 for a 1ST down.
Drive where LSU stalled out on the "Warecat"
2nd and 16 at LSU 31 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Odell Beckham for 36 yards to the Alab 33 for a 1ST down. (Yes, not a 3rd down, but I wouldn't call 2nd and 16 an ideal down and distance)
Last LSU drive before Bama regained the lead where you "in no way" would trust Mett on 3rd down.
3rd and 5 at LSU 23 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 13 yards to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 6 at LSU 40 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jeremy Hill for 7 yards to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down.
If you're keeping track at home sports fans, that 6 straight 3rd down conversions through the air in the 2nd half prior to the 3rd and 10 everyone is discussing. I certainly see why Les shouldn't have trusted Mett in that spot.
This post was edited on 11/5/12 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:25 pm to TigerinCharlotte
double post
This post was edited on 11/5/12 at 2:32 pm
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:26 pm to Alt26
My point exactly. We should have never been trying to run he football when we got to the other side of the 50. Go for the throat and pass the football.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:28 pm to Alt26
quote:
So on the one hand, the play of the passing game is the reason you erased an 11 pt 2nd half deficit against the top defense in the country. But on the other hand, you in no way trust Mett to put the air on third down in that spot? Just for shits and giggles, lets look at some of LSU's previous third downs in the second half.
TD drive to make it 14-10 (Bama):
3rd and 7 at LSU 45 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Kadron Boone for 19 yards to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 5 at ALA 20 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Odell Beckham for 6 yards to the Alab 14 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 7 at ALA 11 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 10 yards to the Alab 1 for a 1ST down.
TD drive to make it 17-14 (LSU)
3rd and 7 at ALA 41 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 23 yards to the Alab 18 for a 1ST down.
Drive where LSU stalled out on the "Warecat"
2nd and 16 at LSU 31 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Odell Beckham for 36 yards to the Alab 33 for a 1ST down. (Yes, not a 3rd down, but I wouldn't call 2nd and 16 an ideal down and distance)
Last LSU drive before Bama regained the lead where you "in no way" would trust Mett on 3rd down.
3rd and 5 at LSU 23 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jarvis Landry for 13 yards to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down.
3rd and 6 at LSU 40 Zach Mettenberger pass complete to Jeremy Hill for 7 yards to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down.
If you're keeping track at home sports fans, that 6 straight 3rd down conversions through the air in the 2nd half prior to the 3rd and 10 everyone is discussing. I certainly see why Les shouldn't have trusted Mett in that spot.
This
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:29 pm to TigerinCharlotte
I'm sure it's been mentioned, but don't forget that after the tipped ball on the first drive of the 3rd Q, Mett converted six straight third downs of six or longer with his arm.
Les picked his spots poorly Saturday night, and he knew it after the game, even if he changed his tune today.
ETA: Two posts up. Just replied to first post; my b.
Les picked his spots poorly Saturday night, and he knew it after the game, even if he changed his tune today.
ETA: Two posts up. Just replied to first post; my b.
This post was edited on 11/5/12 at 2:31 pm
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:35 pm to 2007lsuno1
That's downtown. I would recommend Strike City in the EpiCenter. That's where the alumni association meets. Cool place. Abita Beer on special as well.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:36 pm to Alt26
Lol because everything is equal right?
The game clock issue alone is a major differentiator between your 6 examples and the critical 3rd down but you also ignore a possible:
Interception
Sack for loss
Batted ball
Drop
All with a three point lead under 2mins and in what was assumed at the time to be FG range
So the takeaway from this thread is:
Les Miles is too aggressive except when he is not being aggressive enough
The game clock issue alone is a major differentiator between your 6 examples and the critical 3rd down but you also ignore a possible:
Interception
Sack for loss
Batted ball
Drop
All with a three point lead under 2mins and in what was assumed at the time to be FG range
So the takeaway from this thread is:
Les Miles is too aggressive except when he is not being aggressive enough
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:41 pm to TigerinCharlotte
quote:
TigerinCharlotte
quote:
That's downtown. I would recommend Strike City in the EpiCenter. That's where the alumni association meets. Cool place. Abita Beer on special as well.
Actually, it's north of downtown. Going to be staying at Homewood Suites University North in the 8800 block of North Tryon. Thanks very much for the response and information.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:44 pm to TigerinCharlotte
quote:
LSU looked confused on that play. Looked like the call came in very late. As if they weren't sure what play ton run.
We should have used a timeout to make sure we had the right play and everyone was set but we burned two early in the half and only had one left which is another one of my complaints.....clock management.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:50 pm to TigerinCharlotte
quote:Welcome to 2009, 2010, and 2011.
Arhhg, so frustrating
quote:This has played out several times over the last few years, not just Saturday night.
That play (if we had gotten the 1st) changed the whole complexity of the season and what ultimately could have been a huge pay day for LSU.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 2:51 pm to foghat
Ware should have NEVER run that play under center. We had momentum, throw the ball on 3rd down, hell, even 4th down. Miles reverted to playing not to loose. It's on Miles. The mans right. On that play, we were playing for the NC or a bowl. To hell with this season. 
Posted on 11/5/12 at 3:06 pm to AlexLSU
quote:
Running Hill there was the correct call. Our D had Bama locked down all half and gave up an uncharacteristic drive to end it, plain and simple.
Touchdown still beats you.
We had one play to win the game. Go win the game.
This post was edited on 11/5/12 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 11/5/12 at 3:08 pm to shang1
This is pretty simple. Mett was hot and in the zone as best as we have seen all season. Hell so was offense for that matter. They were feeling it and wanted and probably could have a scored a game deciding td on that second to last possession. But of course they were Les'd and reverted back to typical bottom tier offense as usual. Not saying should have thrown on 3rd down and long but if it was 3rd and short who knows. Should have thrown on first or second and went for the kill but of course that is one of the biggest things Miles lacks, killer instinct. Refuses to try and put teams away. He lost this game for them plain and simple.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 3:10 pm to supatigah
quote:
BAMA has to drive 80 yds to score a TD with no timeouts and 1:30 left on the clock against a defense that has stoned them the entire second half
2002 Matt Jones. You have 10 yards between you and beating the number 1 ranked team in the country. Go get those yards.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 3:17 pm to lsutigertalk
THANK YOU
Posted on 11/5/12 at 3:18 pm to supatigah
quote:
Lol because everything is equal right?
You said in your previous post that there was no way Les should have trusted Mett at that moment based upon past games. But if you couldn't trust him after he had converted 6 straight 3rd downs through the air, (and make no mistake, when you're down 11 to the #1 team in the country with the #1 defense in the country every 3rd down in the second half was critical because you don't know how many times you'll get the ball back) then when can you EVER trust him?
quote:
The game clock issue alone is a major differentiator between your 6 examples and the critical 3rd down
Exactly right. Convert there and the game is over. No dispute. If there was ever a 3rd down to be agressive on, that was it.
quote:
but you also ignore a possible:
Interception
Sack for loss
Batted ball
Drop
You're up 3 with less than 2:30 to go. Bama's out of TO's. So lets look at the possible outcomes:
Intercepted - Bama takes over in thier territory with no TO's. A FG doesn't beat you, it only ties you, a TD wins
Sack for loss - You're out of FG range, but the clock continues to run. Punt and likely pin them inside the 15. A FG doesn't beat you, it only ties you, a TD wins
Batted ball - Clock stops and you try a 4 yard longer FG. Even if you make it, one score still beats you. If the batted ball is intercepted then, Bama takes over in thier territory with no TO's. A FG doesn't beat you, it only ties you, a TD wins
Drop - Clock stops and you try a 4 yard longer FG. Even if you make it, one score still beats you.
No doubt that there is a degree of risk in the decision to try and covert vs. playing for the FG. There's a degree of risk in every play call. But the potential "bad" has to be weighed aginst the potential "good." Even if you make the FG, one score still beats you. It's not like the FG would have given you a 9 or even 8 pt lead
quote:
So the takeaway from this thread is:
Les Miles is too aggressive except when he is not being aggressive enough
No, the takeaway from this thread is that in this particular down, distance, field position and time scenario, the reward of converting and ending the game there outweighed the risk of playing conservatively and giving Bama the ball back with a chance to win.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 3:25 pm to supatigah
I agree with the OP. Especially since bama scored most of their points on us in a very quick fashion. It wasn't going to be a matter of whether they had enough time to score or not, but rather if they WOULD score or not. If you throw the ball, you not only give yourself a good chance at a first down, but also if it's an incomplete pass and bama scores the td, that gives mett another minute to work with.
Posted on 11/5/12 at 3:52 pm to uway
quote:if the defense stops bama and we win you would not even be talking about clm and bad play calls...i agree and i wanted to go for the first down,but no matter what calls failed earlier we still had a 3 point lead and they blew it by playing a soft defense giving bama the td just like before the half.not to mention after the fake field goal and the failed onside kick bama did not score.its just a bunch of miles haters that want him gone,well who do you replace him with that would have this program at the top of the rankings year after year...the problem is you cant name one and you cant have saben so stfu.
That series plus the ridiculously bad play call on the 4th and 2 with Ware = Miles fail
This post was edited on 11/5/12 at 3:53 pm
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