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Started By
Message
re: Bears need to wave the white flag
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:20 am to wutangfinancial
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:20 am to wutangfinancial
Most collateral is, yes indeed.
0
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:20 am to Hussss
quote:
This was an act of war by China
Are you still purporting that China orchestrated all of this? Tell me how many boxes of tin foil you go through per week.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:25 am to Hussss
quote:You are asking for a conclusion based on a questionable hypothetical
I will ask you again:
quote:Given the Fed's actions, how do you posit bond unraveling will occur?
Once the bond bubble starts to unravel
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:26 am to LSURussian
You realize ZeroHedge just does commentary on other people's work right?
It wasn't ZH. It was somebody who broke down the numbers using the trade deficits for the Chinese by country and he used this official settlement book as a cross reference to estimate the shadow reserves they had. I'm looking for it, if I can find it I'll let you know.
It wasn't ZH. It was somebody who broke down the numbers using the trade deficits for the Chinese by country and he used this official settlement book as a cross reference to estimate the shadow reserves they had. I'm looking for it, if I can find it I'll let you know.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:38 am to NC_Tigah
Same exact way that it has happened all throughout history.
How do ALL fiat currencies end?
I’ll hang up and listen.
How do ALL fiat currencies end?
I’ll hang up and listen.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:40 am to mule74
All of us bears will be laughing our arse off on April 14th.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:43 am to Tri City Tigers
What’s happening April 14?
If you are waiting on another crash anytime soon then you will be disappointed.
See, now that the Fed has plenty of borrowers for their funny money they can convert funny money to real assets. They can’t do enough of it without willing borrowers. Willing borrowers dry up during debt saturation so we just had us a little reset.
What a scheme, eh?
If you are waiting on another crash anytime soon then you will be disappointed.
See, now that the Fed has plenty of borrowers for their funny money they can convert funny money to real assets. They can’t do enough of it without willing borrowers. Willing borrowers dry up during debt saturation so we just had us a little reset.
What a scheme, eh?
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 11:57 am
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:49 am to Tri City Tigers
Is that the next OPEX?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:54 am to Hussss
quote:Fiat currency is a relatively recent concept. Previously currency was tied to bimetallism, gold, silver. etc.
Same exact way that it has happened all throughout history.
How do ALL fiat currencies end?
In the last 50 years, we've created major fiats and/or electively transitioned them (i.e., to the Euro). Aside from the likes of the Zimbabwean dollar, what currencies ended??
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 11:58 am
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:04 pm to NC_Tigah
LINK
This is Emma Muhleman explaing how the scheme works with Chinese stocks. I can't find the piece that quantified everything but it's the jist of it. Plus Emma is a fire dime. She disagrees with that guy's estimate that their shadow reserves are $13T but nonetheless this is not a new concept.
This is Emma Muhleman explaing how the scheme works with Chinese stocks. I can't find the piece that quantified everything but it's the jist of it. Plus Emma is a fire dime. She disagrees with that guy's estimate that their shadow reserves are $13T but nonetheless this is not a new concept.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:18 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:Yeah, the way it works with Chinese stocks is their accountants lie their asses off.
how the scheme works with Chinese stocks
In Buffett terms, we're going to see a bunch of naked Chinese swimmers as the tide ebbs.
My question related to predictions of a coming US bond market collapse based on "the end of a fiat currency"
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:19 pm to wutangfinancial
Airlines are way up - planes are parked. RCL up a thousand % this week - all boats are docked. Retail up 15-20% today - stores are locked up tighter than a frogs arse(that’s watertight people).
Don’t get it but feels like I missed out....
Don’t get it but feels like I missed out....
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:32 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
My question related to predictions of a coming US bond market collapse based on "the end of a fiat currency"
The bond market has collapsed about 3 times in 12 years and it will happen again. Husss, I believe, is referencing a time in the future where monetizing the assets won't work. The EU is now in this bind. When your central bank buys up the entire bond market they are essentially de-risking credit (it's not really credit at that point). It will lead us into a zombie economy where the distortions and the misallocation of capital are so massive that the only way to chug it along is more monetary and fiscal stimulus because of the massive debt burdens that can't be serviced. Add on top of that the new progressive regulatory reform that will happen (because of the concentration of industry) like last time and you completely hault innovation in the economy.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:08 pm to Hussss
quote:Don't assume I didn't see your question. I refuse to answer stupid questions.
I will ask you again:
And ALL of your tin-foil hat questions are STUPID.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:16 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:If there is a shortage of dollars, why?
And that would imply that what I'm saying about a shortage of dollars is correct.
In this thread you've said there is a shortage of dollars and other countries will soon refuse to use dollars.
There is a shortage of toilet paper in the U.S. Is it because no one wants toilet paper? Or is it because too many people are hoarding toilet paper?
Do you have any idea what your point is? Because I sure don't.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:20 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:There was no last time.
like last time
We've had depressions. We've had recessions. We've never had a Great Cessation.
quote:But that credit was not a risk until the government ordered cessation made it so.
buys up the entire bond market they are essentially de-risking credit
quote:This is a bit like TARP, more lending than gifting. TARP added not a penny to the deficit. Now make no mistake, this will. But not anywhere near the amount of its 4-5 Trillion expenditure.
the massive debt burdens that can't be serviced
Nevertheless, I'm not sure I'm following your projection to massive defaults and a bond market collapse.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:22 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:You can't be taken seriously.
you completely hault innovation in the economy.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:44 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
But that credit was not a risk until the government ordered cessation made it so.
This is where we disagree. Earnings growth was done, the consumer was tapped out and over leveraged, and the global economy was falling into recession regardless of the virus. The BBB space has never been larger and filled with more POS bonds than any other time in history. The IG space is/was the same. Downgrades were imminent in oil. Look at Copper in 2019. The speed is the only difference. I always thought the catalyst for a drawdown would be CCP default related but never in my wildest dreams thought it would be a virus outbreak.
quote:
This is a bit like TARP
You are talking about the fiscal side and I was talking about the monetary side. I don't really care about deficits because they aren't going away with the entitlement shortfalls, as I'm sure you know.
At the end of the day the Fed might be able to steer us through this again, but at some point the market won't find them credible. But nontheless they are just reflating assets that have no value and don't reflect risk and that can't end well.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:47 pm to LSURussian
Ya, definitely. Everything I said is now invalid because of a spelling error while typing on my phone 
Seriously though, if being the least smelly pile of shite in the sewer is what gives you confidence then more power to you. I don't have that kind of faith. You've been right your entire life on this stuff and I've only been here through 2ish business cycles so what do I know? I think we are screwed from a demographic stand point. If our population was growing organically then I'd be calling for an inflationary boom, but that's isn't happening.
Seriously though, if being the least smelly pile of shite in the sewer is what gives you confidence then more power to you. I don't have that kind of faith. You've been right your entire life on this stuff and I've only been here through 2ish business cycles so what do I know? I think we are screwed from a demographic stand point. If our population was growing organically then I'd be calling for an inflationary boom, but that's isn't happening.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:51 pm to Hussss
quote:
What ya trying to say? You alluding to the fact that by the time the tax slaves receive their $1200 rebate pittance, it will be worth around $1k in spending power? Sounds about right. Take groceries for example. Prices keep rising and packages keep shrinking.
The percentage of income spent to feed a family has never been lower..
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