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Posted on 12/8/14 at 10:40 am to Louie T
Breckenridge has snow. You don't have any worries.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:13 pm to Iowa Golfer
I want MORE snow! ha but I would love for some UGAZ to just get up to $15
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:22 pm to Louie T
:whateverthatjumpingoffthebridgeemoteis:
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:25 pm to b-rab2
quote:
but I would love for some UGAZ to just get up to $15
For UGAZ to hit $15 I think NG has to touch $4.70. I don't see that happening as of now.
I'd like the experts to chime in.
Right now my exit point is when NG hits $4.30. This may change of course depending on lots of factors.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:37 pm to I Love Bama
From multiple reports, looks like a very cold system will be coming late December. This could kick off a string of cold snaps which should significantly increase the NG price. JMO but I think the reason NG prices are dropping so quickly is because most of the US will be in unusually warm temps through mid-December. This will change rapidly come latter part of this month and you could see a quick turnaround in UGAZ. I am a BUYER right now.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:38 pm to jlu03
quote:
I am a BUYER right now.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 1:50 pm to jlu03
quote:Honest question: Why isn't that information already reflected in the price of NG?
From multiple reports, looks like a very cold system will be coming late December. This could kick off a string of cold snaps which should significantly increase the NG price.
Since you can find that forecast, I assume anyone else who trades NG can also know the forecast you've seen.
I guess what I'm asking is if that information is available to everyone, why isn't the impact of a prolonged cold period in late December/early January already priced in for NG and thus the ETF's involving NG??
Posted on 12/8/14 at 2:15 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I guess what I'm asking is if that information is available to everyone, why isn't the impact of a prolonged cold period in late December/early January already priced in for NG and thus the ETF's involving NG??
I always thought it was...I think the price changes are due to unexpected changes in supply and demand
Posted on 12/8/14 at 3:23 pm to Ole War Skule
Read Huntman on page 223 for part of the answer.
LINK
The rest can be found in the COT and swaps and who holds them. Institutional -v- speculators. You can see the price go down overnight. Overnight trading is largely speculators. They are loading up short right now. I suspect they are on the wrong side of the trade. With respect to the weather, the ocean temps still point toward cold, but the interesting thing is the euro ensemble which drives price more than one might think.
It is an extremely volatile market, called the widow maker on the future's side, driven largely by wild speculation.
About all you can do is some due diligence on supply/demand and degree days, check the institutional trader's positions, check cash price at HH and out of HH to other hubs, and make longer term plays.
I'm in agreement with Jlu03, I'm a buyer currently. Having said that, I went long well before everyone else on here when the entry prices were lower. When natural gas does get an increase in pricing, which it inevitably will, I'll start to short for this summer selectively trying not to pay too much for time premium.
LINK
The rest can be found in the COT and swaps and who holds them. Institutional -v- speculators. You can see the price go down overnight. Overnight trading is largely speculators. They are loading up short right now. I suspect they are on the wrong side of the trade. With respect to the weather, the ocean temps still point toward cold, but the interesting thing is the euro ensemble which drives price more than one might think.
It is an extremely volatile market, called the widow maker on the future's side, driven largely by wild speculation.
About all you can do is some due diligence on supply/demand and degree days, check the institutional trader's positions, check cash price at HH and out of HH to other hubs, and make longer term plays.
I'm in agreement with Jlu03, I'm a buyer currently. Having said that, I went long well before everyone else on here when the entry prices were lower. When natural gas does get an increase in pricing, which it inevitably will, I'll start to short for this summer selectively trying not to pay too much for time premium.
This post was edited on 12/8/14 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 12/8/14 at 4:38 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:The 'entry prices' for what was lower? UGAZ??
I went long well before everyone else on here when the entry prices were lower.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 4:54 pm to LSURussian
I trade exclusively UNG options, DGAZ shares and future's options. So I'm in to UNG 21 Jan calls for slightly over .60, because I went in sooner, and also averaged down. $21 UNG might look aggressive, but I don't think so. It was recently higher than that, and hopefully will be back by mid January. DGAZ hasn't gotten low enough for me yet. I almost pulled the trigger sub $2.50, but I think I'll have another chance.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 6:44 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I guess what I'm asking is if that information is available to everyone, why isn't the impact of a prolonged cold period in late December/early January already priced in for NG and thus the ETF's involving NG??
My answer to that would be, does everyone trust a hurricane track when it's 2 weeks away from the US. It's hard to be confident in a weather forecast which is 3 weeks out and not everyone buys into it. When there is more of a definitive answer as to how cold and the length of the cold snap I think only then will you see a significant rise in NG. I do believe we will have a cold snap by the end of the month but that's my opinion.
Here is one long range forecast from Louisville meteorologist.... LINK
This post was edited on 12/8/14 at 7:04 pm
Posted on 12/8/14 at 7:17 pm to jlu03
LINK
It's being traded. Longs are taking longs based on last week of December. Their range in narrower because they take a shorter term view. Possibly between $3.40 and $3.50 gas is what I've been hearing, and gas is at $3.66.
The t have put a lot of gas back in storage this last injection season. Remarkable really. I'm not clear how they worked out the pipeline issue, but they really filled last winter's gap. Eventually they will have freeze offs and it will all be net withdrawals. Should be Thursday. I think larger than anticipated, but we''ll see.
It's being traded. Longs are taking longs based on last week of December. Their range in narrower because they take a shorter term view. Possibly between $3.40 and $3.50 gas is what I've been hearing, and gas is at $3.66.
The t have put a lot of gas back in storage this last injection season. Remarkable really. I'm not clear how they worked out the pipeline issue, but they really filled last winter's gap. Eventually they will have freeze offs and it will all be net withdrawals. Should be Thursday. I think larger than anticipated, but we''ll see.
This post was edited on 12/8/14 at 7:21 pm
Posted on 12/8/14 at 7:44 pm to Iowa Golfer
What does your last post mean, including the link? Thanks.
Posted on 12/8/14 at 8:29 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:Seriously? I obviously don't follow this stuff as much as you...mostly just what I read in this thread, but wasn't $2.50 a five year low? You see it dipping this much in the near future?
I almost pulled the trigger sub $2.50, but I think I'll have another chance.
Edit: There's apparently no sense in comparing the 5 year charts for these two ETNs. I'm guessing it's got something to do with the leveraging, contango, and backwardation...a few things I might understand by the time I'm 50 and able to invest.
This post was edited on 12/8/14 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 12/8/14 at 8:39 pm to bayoubengals88
Be careful talking about highs and lows with these leverage etfs.
Lows mean nothing due to decay.
Follow ng and then trade these accordingly
Lows mean nothing due to decay.
Follow ng and then trade these accordingly
Posted on 12/8/14 at 8:48 pm to I Love Bama
Regarding your comment, do the 52 week highs and lows for a leveraged etf reflect decay adjustments or are they meaningless?
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