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Message
Deal with China might be announced early next week
Posted on 5/11/25 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 5/11/25 at 1:43 pm
LINK
White House just released good progress.
Hopefully we are going to make a run soon
White House just released good progress.
Hopefully we are going to make a run soon
This post was edited on 5/11/25 at 1:45 pm
1
Posted on 5/11/25 at 1:51 pm to glorymanutdtiger
Obviously the data would be impossible to obtain, but if next week the market officially gains back all it has lost since liberation day, I would be interested to see the geographic differences in who held firm and who liquidated.
My Hunch is that there would be a red/blue pattern. If I were an elderly center-left retiree who freaked out and sold everything, I’d be pissed off at cable news and various talking heads who told me to sell everything.
Elderly people are highly gullible and some may have just pissed away chunks of their net worth
My Hunch is that there would be a red/blue pattern. If I were an elderly center-left retiree who freaked out and sold everything, I’d be pissed off at cable news and various talking heads who told me to sell everything.
Elderly people are highly gullible and some may have just pissed away chunks of their net worth
Posted on 5/11/25 at 2:07 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:That's certainly one perspective. But the haphazard way things have been introduced - with no discernible plan - isn't exactly fair to ask of investors (particularly the elderly you mentioned).
Obviously the data would be impossible to obtain, but if next week the market officially gains back all it has lost since liberation day, I would be interested to see the geographic differences in who held firm and who liquidated.
My Hunch is that there would be a red/blue pattern. If I were an elderly center-left retiree who freaked out and sold everything, I’d be pissed off at cable news and various talking heads who told me to sell everything.
Elderly people are highly gullible and some may have just pissed away chunks of their net worth
Having said that, it's still not that big of an effect. If someone sold everything at "the bottom", they are like, what, mid-2024 prices?
Stocks are still way overvalued anyway.
Posted on 5/11/25 at 2:25 pm to Big Scrub TX
I think based on the trade deal signed with the UK and now with Lutnicks comments over the last few days. It is clear that the bargaining chip that the Trump administration is starting from is quite a bit different than many had anticipated.
They are trying to thread the needle, however the tariffs are much too low to drive any real manufacturing back to the USA. As they are basically saying that most countries that come to deal will be at a 10% baseline regardless.
Basically we are looking at a defacto nation wide sales tax at 10% moving forward to help pay for the tax cuts.
I think market response will be muted moving forward, as companies will have to figure out how to absorb these cost increases. Either pass it on or eat into their own margins.
They are trying to thread the needle, however the tariffs are much too low to drive any real manufacturing back to the USA. As they are basically saying that most countries that come to deal will be at a 10% baseline regardless.
Basically we are looking at a defacto nation wide sales tax at 10% moving forward to help pay for the tax cuts.
I think market response will be muted moving forward, as companies will have to figure out how to absorb these cost increases. Either pass it on or eat into their own margins.
Posted on 5/11/25 at 2:45 pm to UltimaParadox
A universal 10% tariff wouldn’t be very economically destabilizing.
The latest research shows that a 1% tariff is associated with a .1% increase in sticker price
So a universal 10% tariff would basically be a 1% sticker price increase on foreign goods.
It would basically be a 1% sales tax on a portion of goods a typical consumer buys.
Annoying, but nothing that alone would impact economic data like gdp or employment
The latest research shows that a 1% tariff is associated with a .1% increase in sticker price
So a universal 10% tariff would basically be a 1% sticker price increase on foreign goods.
It would basically be a 1% sales tax on a portion of goods a typical consumer buys.
Annoying, but nothing that alone would impact economic data like gdp or employment
Posted on 5/11/25 at 2:47 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
That’s possible.
Although I think it speaks more to the fact that people act irrationally when presented new risks and uncertainty.
Or maybe their portfolio positions weren’t risk weighted appropriately for their tolerance. People happily accept a 20 annual return but lose their lunch when markets correct 10% or more.
So many people buy going up and sell going down.
Although I think it speaks more to the fact that people act irrationally when presented new risks and uncertainty.
Or maybe their portfolio positions weren’t risk weighted appropriately for their tolerance. People happily accept a 20 annual return but lose their lunch when markets correct 10% or more.
So many people buy going up and sell going down.
Posted on 5/11/25 at 3:34 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
The latest research shows that a 1% tariff is associated with a .1% increase in sticker price
I think I would normally agree with this, but we have never seen across the board price hikes like this in the past.
However I am not stating that prices will increase 10% across the board by any means. Companies will have to weigh the pros and cons vs their margins.
Either the company pays for it or we do, that's a fact.
I'm guessing the administration will slowly phase out tariffs for certain critical things. But this will be very uneven going forward.
However I think from the point of perspective of the stock market, I think the expectation is 10% at this point. So trade deals setting these countries back to this number isn't really going to move the needle anymore
Posted on 5/11/25 at 4:41 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:stupidity comes with a price and some lessons are more expensive than other
Elderly people are highly gullible and some may have just pissed away chunks of their net worth
Posted on 5/12/25 at 7:37 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Reddit was fricking hysterical as well. Still are. I started fading them too early, but at this point it's going to be an inverse well that keeps on giving these next few years. 26 year olds who are terminally online are always going to be wrong when it comes to the stock market.
I feel bad for those young people who are going to be permanently bearish for the rest of their lives. Bad habits that start early are tough to erase.
I feel bad for those young people who are going to be permanently bearish for the rest of their lives. Bad habits that start early are tough to erase.
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