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re: Have we reached the bottom?
Posted on 10/4/22 at 5:03 pm to skewbs
Posted on 10/4/22 at 5:03 pm to skewbs
quote:
The Market is not the Economy
true....UNTIL the economy is so bad for long enough (see - past 2 quarters and then some) that these highly levered institutions start getting their margin calls (UK pension funds, crypto bros, and next up: sovereign bonds and real estate REITs and related)
0
Posted on 10/4/22 at 5:14 pm to Allthatfades
My personal opinion.... no
Posted on 10/4/22 at 5:25 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
When we hit the bottom there will still be a ton of negativity and plenty of headline news reasons why NOT to be a buyer.
I don't disagree; this is historically accurate, market bottoms occur before the indicators. I just don't agree with your apparent assessment that that time is now.
In hindsight you have the benefit of knowing when the bad news stopped.
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 6:54 pm
Posted on 10/4/22 at 6:38 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
there is more pain and this is just a head fake
Good. I got positive and sold out. Waiting for the drop because this aint sustainable.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 6:46 pm to Allthatfades
quote:
Have we reached the bottom?
Posted on 10/4/22 at 7:44 pm to Allthatfades
It’s a conundrum, bear sentiment is so high the only way the man can scalp $$$ is to push the market up but the macro says a crash is coming
Said it before and I’ll say it again, when the VIX pushes over 40 I’ll start putting my cash on the line. Wherever the market is at that point in time makes no difference to me. No bear market ends without a flush, or 2, ever.
Said it before and I’ll say it again, when the VIX pushes over 40 I’ll start putting my cash on the line. Wherever the market is at that point in time makes no difference to me. No bear market ends without a flush, or 2, ever.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:18 pm to DTRooster
quote:
Said it before and I’ll say it again, when the VIX pushes over 40 I’ll start putting my cash on the line. Wherever the market is at that point in time makes no difference to me. No bear market ends without a flush, or 2, ever.
Maybe, probably, but the VIX has only been around since 1993. It’s only seen 3 bear markets - once driven by the financial crisis and another by a global pandemic. I’m not sure if it’s the best gauge to extrapolate “every bear market” as many like to do (not accusing you of that).
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:20 pm to Allthatfades
Historically in midterm election years after a bad September the market rebounds in October and November.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 5:19 am to Allthatfades
The market could drop another 30-40% before it starts to recover. That could be years before we see that happen. I have bookmarked this thread to revisit in a future bump.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 5:34 am to Allthatfades
I still have cash so we are probably not at the bottom.
A bottom usually does not occur until I am completely tapped out.
A bottom usually does not occur until I am completely tapped out.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:57 am to Allthatfades
We are one geopolitical event from something really bad.
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