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re: Home Mortgage Rates
Posted on 9/16/22 at 9:58 am to Sprint7
Posted on 9/16/22 at 9:58 am to Sprint7
i work for Hancock Bank you can email me at edhawk75@gmail.com and we can discuss your options. We have a jumbo 10/1 arm (rate fixed for 10 yrs) thats a 30yr loan and the rate is 4.75%. Conventional rates with 20% down reached a year long high this week and are right at 6%.
0
Posted on 9/17/22 at 6:08 am to Sprint7
quote:I have a buddy that is a mortgage loan officer. Banks are now offering 10 year ARMs with considerably lower rates than a traditional mortgage. To me, that would be the route to go at this time, with rates basically double what they were just a couple of years ago. My friend is taking a huge hit in his wallet, as homebuyers are opting for the ARM over the traditional. His employer does ARMs thru the bank side, basically competing against him, his higher rates, on the mortgage side.
I'm good on cash and will put minimum of 20% down. I don't know the future but expect to stay in this house at least 10 years.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 6:11 am to molsusports
quote:Agreed. Buyers are not qualifying now, where they did just a few months back, Interest rate increases are pushing a lot of people out of the market, increasing inventory.
Inventory has not been the variable affecting price. Interest rates have been.
IMO a buyer shouldn't buy anything close to current prices unless you get at least those concessions.
I agree most sellers are going to decline at this point. But in retrospect (as home prices depreciate over the next couple of years) I think they will wish they had accepted (typically walking away with a six figure profit).
Buyers are canceling purchases and postponing purchases. Not IMO because they suddenly got more wise about speculative appreciation, because many have been priced out of homes they could more easily afford when interest rates were 4 or more percentage points lower.
We'll see obviously. If you think people's salaries are going to significantly appreciate then I will change my mind because the percentage of income devoted to home costs would come back down closer to a normal ratio.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:08 am to greygoose
With how many things are changing there could be an atypically rapid drop in home prices.
I have come around to the idea that almost everyone who bought in the last twelve or more months is probably going to be significantly upside down on the purchase.
That's manageable if you aren't moving and have a low interest rate. But it badly affects your options if you have to sell (job, divorce, whatever). And a drop in values also destroys refinancing when the loan is larger than the current appraisal.
I also think the opportunity cost of paying some or all of the purchase may be unusually high right now. If we have a significant reset the people who benefit are the ones with hundreds of thousands or millions to invest when things become cheap. I would be unhappy if my ability to invest was significantly harmed by buying a home near peak valuations.
If I were the OP I would rent a luxury condo for 12-18 months and then look again
I have come around to the idea that almost everyone who bought in the last twelve or more months is probably going to be significantly upside down on the purchase.
That's manageable if you aren't moving and have a low interest rate. But it badly affects your options if you have to sell (job, divorce, whatever). And a drop in values also destroys refinancing when the loan is larger than the current appraisal.
I also think the opportunity cost of paying some or all of the purchase may be unusually high right now. If we have a significant reset the people who benefit are the ones with hundreds of thousands or millions to invest when things become cheap. I would be unhappy if my ability to invest was significantly harmed by buying a home near peak valuations.
If I were the OP I would rent a luxury condo for 12-18 months and then look again
Posted on 9/19/22 at 8:22 am to molsusports
It’s purely anecdotal but we have a rental condo in a good location. Our tenant is leaving and we have gotten two calls from other renters in the complex saying their owners are selling. I expect there is a move for investors to get a chair before the music stops.
That said, there are still plenty of institutional buyers out there so we’ll see how this plays out. I don’t see any way though that pricing doesn’t come down ovet the next year except in really hot markets.
That said, there are still plenty of institutional buyers out there so we’ll see how this plays out. I don’t see any way though that pricing doesn’t come down ovet the next year except in really hot markets.
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:16 am to SquatchDawg
What do you think they will do over the next 8 months? My kids are hitting school age and we will be needing to move out of EBR by next fall. I want to hold of looking until March/April but my wife wants to buy as soon as possible.
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:32 am to DieSmilen
Originally it was forecasted to get better beginning in October when inflation numbers will begin to improve which will give us relief in Q4 and Q1 of 2023. I read this today which is a pretty bearish outlook...
"Mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yields move closely together. Both of these interest rates are hitting their “resistance” points. Once punctured the interest rates could move much higher. The concept of resistance points is principally based on the momentum of financial markets. Think of it as a battle line between two armies. The line will hold or break. Once broken there tend to be bigger than normal subsequent changes.
The 30-year mortgage rates have shown resistance at 8.2%, at 6.2%, and 4.2%. The 4.2% was already broken. It is now battling at 6.2%. If broken, the chart is implying mortgage rates popping higher to possibly 7% or even 8%."
With that being said, if you can afford the monthly payment on a home you like, you can refinance it or get an ARM. You may save more now buying a house than you did when rates were better.
"Mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yields move closely together. Both of these interest rates are hitting their “resistance” points. Once punctured the interest rates could move much higher. The concept of resistance points is principally based on the momentum of financial markets. Think of it as a battle line between two armies. The line will hold or break. Once broken there tend to be bigger than normal subsequent changes.
The 30-year mortgage rates have shown resistance at 8.2%, at 6.2%, and 4.2%. The 4.2% was already broken. It is now battling at 6.2%. If broken, the chart is implying mortgage rates popping higher to possibly 7% or even 8%."
With that being said, if you can afford the monthly payment on a home you like, you can refinance it or get an ARM. You may save more now buying a house than you did when rates were better.
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:38 am to DieSmilen
quote:
but my wife wants to buy as soon as possible.
Is she at all practical with money?
If so, have her browse the listings and then go to the bank for the pre-approval.
Unless you guys are buying it with cash the monthly mortgage payment (at current interest rates) is going to make her jaw drop.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 4:53 am to molsusports
quote:
The fed has commented pretty directly on their expectations of the housing market reset.
The Fed helped create the bubble that popped in 2008 and the current housing/inflation problems we see today. I would hardly consider anything they say as a source of true information nor would I put any stock in their projections. They told us last year that this inflation would be "transitory" in nature, only to be forced to walk that back just months later.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 1:07 pm to The_Duke
quote:
The_Duke
quote:
The past due 90 days for homeowners is already higher than it was in 2007
Do you have any articles on this ? I know that the numbers are very skewed due to the forbearances and they aren’t looking good. But that sounds like a stretch.
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