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re: Man, the shale stocks are getting HAMMERED
Posted on 7/22/08 at 1:04 pm to Tiger JJ
Posted on 7/22/08 at 1:04 pm to Tiger JJ
Look at the historic price cycles for Natural gas and it's easy to see that gas prices always rise in the fall when we switch from storage season to withdrawl season and then decrease in the spring season when we switch back into storage season. It's just now that the summer storage season has seen prices that are over $10-$11. Long range prices keep creeping higher, and with gas/oil at a 6/1 energy ratio gas prices have to come back in line with oil prices at some point. At $80 oil that would translate into over $13 natural gas. Long term it looks pretty bullish especially considering the demand driven energy price increases.
0
Posted on 7/22/08 at 1:46 pm to Tigah in the ATL
Hey Tigah, Blue is my dad's broker. Even gave him a copy of the book. Great picture. My dad said he flew his plane under the Texas Street Bridge?
Posted on 7/22/08 at 10:30 pm to Rantavious
quote:That's awesome!
Hey Tigah, Blue is my dad's broker.
Posted on 7/23/08 at 2:23 pm to Tigah in the ATL
CHK - $47
HK - $33
HK - $33
Posted on 7/23/08 at 2:25 pm to Tiger JJ
time to load up.
Posted on 7/24/08 at 10:22 am to Cdawg
The carnage is just wholesale. Everyday down more more and more. CHK at 45 now. HK at 30.
Posted on 7/24/08 at 10:34 am to Tiger JJ
natural gas is absolutely collapsing, on HUGE volume. Check UNG. Wow. This looks like a blowoff bottom.
ETA:
ETA:
This post was edited on 7/24/08 at 11:10 am
Posted on 7/24/08 at 11:42 am to Colonel Hapablap
Last trade $9.16.
bizarrely, the shale stocks have rallied pretty hard off the lows: HK $33, CHK $47.5
bizarrely, the shale stocks have rallied pretty hard off the lows: HK $33, CHK $47.5
Posted on 7/24/08 at 11:45 am to Tiger JJ
Its all going to be ok. Just balancing out the big run up in oil over the last 6 months. Unfortunately the HS play got sucked up into this monster. Come October NG will be back up as all the fair-weather traders start betting on the cold winter.
Posted on 7/24/08 at 11:58 am to Tiger JJ
nice double bottom on big volume early in the day. If you're into that sort of thing. 
Posted on 7/24/08 at 4:45 pm to Ric Flair
quote:
I've been thinking of adding one of these to the portfolio.
We missed out...should have bought about 2 years ago...
Posted on 7/24/08 at 4:49 pm to lukestar
quote:
We missed out
Not necessarily. If they continue to drop (as long as natural gas is also falling) they might be a good buy here in the next month or two.
Posted on 7/24/08 at 5:07 pm to LSU0358
quote:
If they continue to drop (as long as natural gas is also falling) they might be a good buy here in the next month or two.
Really? I thought everyone was bullish on CHK hitting $100 by end of year. I don't think that's going to happen but at $49..is that not a good time to jump in?
Posted on 7/24/08 at 5:29 pm to Colonel Hapablap
quote:
nice double bottom on big volume early in the day. If you're into that sort of thing.
Were you referring to gas or the stocks? Because the stocks rebounded sharply.
Posted on 7/24/08 at 5:29 pm to Tiger JJ
UNG. I don't have access to a live chart of the futures contract.
ETA: but the UNG double bottom was at the same time as the bottom in CHK.
ETA: but the UNG double bottom was at the same time as the bottom in CHK.
This post was edited on 7/24/08 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 7/24/08 at 6:01 pm to Colonel Hapablap
Explain the "double bottom" for those chart skeptics out here...
Posted on 7/25/08 at 9:06 am to Tiger JJ
Chart 1 - 5 minute bars:
If you look at the 10:00 time frame, you'll see volume (the blue superimposed bars) increase dramatically, and it's coupled with a price decline down to the $42 range. Volume tails off a tad as the price recovers to a bit over $43. Then volume increased again, price drops again, but the sellers can't push it below where they did before. In terms of supply and demand, at that moment everyone who was going to sell had already done so. Willingness to sell below that $42 (actually like $41.75 I think) was essentially zero. In essence, the buyers overwhelmed the sellers at that price, on 2 occasions, almost 30 minutes apart, on high volume (note that when there are more shares changing hands, it indicates more broad participation in the move, and therefore tends to be confirmatory).
Chart 2 - 1 hour bars:
Note how much higher the volume is over previous days. Whatever happened was done with uncommonly large participation of buyers and sellers.
Chart 3 - 1 day bars:
Again, notice how much higher the volume is than on previous days.
If you look at the 10:00 time frame, you'll see volume (the blue superimposed bars) increase dramatically, and it's coupled with a price decline down to the $42 range. Volume tails off a tad as the price recovers to a bit over $43. Then volume increased again, price drops again, but the sellers can't push it below where they did before. In terms of supply and demand, at that moment everyone who was going to sell had already done so. Willingness to sell below that $42 (actually like $41.75 I think) was essentially zero. In essence, the buyers overwhelmed the sellers at that price, on 2 occasions, almost 30 minutes apart, on high volume (note that when there are more shares changing hands, it indicates more broad participation in the move, and therefore tends to be confirmatory).
Chart 2 - 1 hour bars:
Note how much higher the volume is over previous days. Whatever happened was done with uncommonly large participation of buyers and sellers.
Chart 3 - 1 day bars:
Again, notice how much higher the volume is than on previous days.
Posted on 7/25/08 at 9:12 am to Colonel Hapablap
Volume on CHK, HK, and others was double to triple the recent average yesterday, and this has seemed to be the case a lot the past couple of weeks. My guess would be that a lot of institutional money has been sliding out recently.
Posted on 7/29/08 at 9:59 am to TigerDog83
Natural gas breaks through $9
Posted on 7/29/08 at 10:12 am to Tiger JJ
I saw that too. :(
NATURAL GAS FUTR (USD/MMBtu) 8.955 -0.208 -2.27 10:39
NATURAL GAS FUTR (USD/MMBtu) 8.955 -0.208 -2.27 10:39
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