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Posted on 2/12/26 at 8:55 am to LSUSports247
highlighting a shift from ~6% EBITA margins to targeting ~40% at scale is HUGE.
That’s not a small improvement — it’s a full business model transformation.
At 6% margins: valued like a low-margin services company. At ~40% margins: valued like a high-margin AI/platform company.
Same revenue at 40% EBITA = ~7x more operating profit vs 6%.
Margin expansion is paramount for long-term bull metric because it drives valuation multiples, cash flow, and scalability.
Bullish
LINK
That’s not a small improvement — it’s a full business model transformation.
At 6% margins: valued like a low-margin services company. At ~40% margins: valued like a high-margin AI/platform company.
Same revenue at 40% EBITA = ~7x more operating profit vs 6%.
Margin expansion is paramount for long-term bull metric because it drives valuation multiples, cash flow, and scalability.
Bullish
LINK
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:01 am to bayoubengals88
I think investors are also looking at a likely negative free cash flow, being skeptical on their stated CAPEX.
So earnings before ITDA is great but the fear around companies investing in this industry is real.
Doesn’t worry me. There’s a reason capacity is sold out and I trust the team to make the right investments.
So earnings before ITDA is great but the fear around companies investing in this industry is real.
Doesn’t worry me. There’s a reason capacity is sold out and I trust the team to make the right investments.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:02 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
I think it's a valid question, but what's the bad metric?
Obviously the earnings miss is what people are feeding into. That's going to take the stock down 10% from its previous close. It will recover, but I think it will take more time to get back to triple digits...
If aren't so tight lipped between earnings reports, they might be sitting at $110 or $120 going into earnings, and then a 10% drop doesn't hurt as much.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:07 am to Jax-Tiger
They run the business extremely conservatively.
But sooner than later, 30bn in actual revenue will be impossible to ignore.
But sooner than later, 30bn in actual revenue will be impossible to ignore.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:12 am to bayoubengals88
From Goldman:
I’m lost on the note in bold.
How does Goldman view 3GW equating to $30B revenue, NBIS stating 3GW of revenue by end of 2026 while Goldman modeling 2028 FY revenue of $10B.
Either I am misunderstanding something or there’s a typo in their initial take.
quote:
Additionally, the company upgraded its aim to have >3GW (vs 2.5GW prior) of contracted power by the end of 2026 given it has already contracted 2GW of its previously guided contracted power target for YE26. Furthermore, we highlight that NBIS reiterated its target of 800MW-1GW of connected power (i.e. power connected to built DCs). As such, we have previously estimated that 1GW would translate to around $10bn of revenues, and we estimate that 3GW would translate into c.$30bn of revenue, other things equal in the medium term (note we currently estimate FY28 revenues of c.$10bn). Nebius reiterated its guide for ARR to reach $7-9bn by year-end 2026 (vs ARR of $1.25bn at the end of December 2025). We note that consensus is currently modelling 2026 revenues of $3.6bn, which we estimate would imply an ARR of c.$6-7bn (based on the assumption of c.50-60% ARR drop-through to revenues).
I’m lost on the note in bold.
How does Goldman view 3GW equating to $30B revenue, NBIS stating 3GW of revenue by end of 2026 while Goldman modeling 2028 FY revenue of $10B.
Either I am misunderstanding something or there’s a typo in their initial take.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:12 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
They run the business extremely conservatively.
But sooner than later, 30bn in actual revenue will be impossible to ignore.
I have said that the $7-$9B ARR by the end of this year will be impossible to ignore. The stock will be undervalued at $200/shr.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:14 am to Jax-Tiger
Just hit green for the day....
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:39 am to Cajun75
quote:
Just hit green for the day....
Jinxing is a real thing...
Posted on 2/12/26 at 10:27 am to LSUcam7
quote:Goldman is right to assume that 3GW equates to 30b, IF operational.
How does Goldman view 3GW equating to $30B revenue, NBIS stating 3GW of revenue by end of 2026 while Goldman modeling 2028 FY revenue of $10B.
What you're missing is that NBIS will have 3GW Contracted .
Not connected, and not operational, but contracted.
Example, Microsoft is contracted for about 4bn per year, but NBIS only has maybe 1bn of that operational at the moment.
Just an example, not sure on the numbers, but I heard them say that they should realize all of MSFT contracted revenue in 2027.
So they'll be spending the rest of this year to get fully connected and online. That's why 2026 ARR is 7-9bn between MSFT, META, and others as they get connected and operational.
This post was edited on 2/12/26 at 10:31 am
Posted on 2/12/26 at 10:44 am to Jax-Tiger
quote:
quote:
Just hit green for the day....
Jinxing is a real thing...
Suppose so.....whole market is taking a dump it seems.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 10:52 am to bayoubengals88
That makes sense. I just don’t understand how they’re getting to only a 10 billion mark for 2028.
I guess it’s possible that most of the Microsoft revenue will already be recognized. IDK.
Either way, I’ll continue buying the shite out of this if it stays low.
I guess it’s possible that most of the Microsoft revenue will already be recognized. IDK.
Either way, I’ll continue buying the shite out of this if it stays low.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 12:06 pm to LSUcam7
quote:Makes no sense. Was that prior to META and the enormous leap to build out 3GW?
I just don’t understand how they’re getting to only a 10 billion mark for 2028.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:01 pm to bayoubengals88
Not sure
And not that it matters immensely but we opened down 9.8% or so and finished the day green. That’s accumulation.
And not that it matters immensely but we opened down 9.8% or so and finished the day green. That’s accumulation.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:02 pm to LSUcam7
Finishing green on a very garbage macro day is good. Earnings had a positive impact. Sucks today wasn’t a day like last Friday overall, would have soared.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:04 pm to LSUcam7
Yes! Who on earth would have had us moving just over 1% today (in either direction)?!
I'd say it's quite strong given the market.
And 25mm shares traded isn't too shabby.
Market dipped end of day and NBIS did the inverse!
I'd say it's quite strong given the market.
And 25mm shares traded isn't too shabby.
Market dipped end of day and NBIS did the inverse!
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:18 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
I think investors are also looking at a likely negative free cash flow, being skeptical on their stated CAPEX.
So earnings before ITDA is great but the fear around companies investing in this industry is real.
Generally speaking, the analysis that I've read that lean bearish always mention execution as a sticking point. Can they execute?
At some point, they have to believe it, because this stock was selling at $65/share back when the YE ARR was supposed to be $900M - $1.1B. Now it is $7 - $9B, and the stock is only $25 more per share. They will have to see that NBIS is meeting and exceeding their projections.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 3:53 pm to LSUSports247
69, 64, 59 my rebuys. GL
Posted on 2/12/26 at 4:00 pm to Jax-Tiger
Thinking it through today & this is me trying to simplify a stream of thoughts:
1) Nebius has a ton of revenue coming relative to 2024 & 2025. Everyone sees the path for tremendous rev growth.
2) NBIS committing to pumping a lot of that revenue into AI related projects & acquisitions (CAPEX). The market seems to contradict itself right now saying AI capex might not deliver ROI while also saying AI will disrupt all software.
3) Because of this revenue growth and subsequent investment commitment by NBIS, leaving little retained earnings for 2026 and possibly 2027, investors are nervous about bidding it up significantly further until AI sentiment changes.
So I’m looking through short term stock price and more interested to see how AI adoption & use cases evolve.
1) Nebius has a ton of revenue coming relative to 2024 & 2025. Everyone sees the path for tremendous rev growth.
2) NBIS committing to pumping a lot of that revenue into AI related projects & acquisitions (CAPEX). The market seems to contradict itself right now saying AI capex might not deliver ROI while also saying AI will disrupt all software.
3) Because of this revenue growth and subsequent investment commitment by NBIS, leaving little retained earnings for 2026 and possibly 2027, investors are nervous about bidding it up significantly further until AI sentiment changes.
So I’m looking through short term stock price and more interested to see how AI adoption & use cases evolve.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 4:05 pm to LSUcam7
quote:I want to use this comment to explain how big of an understatement this is...
1) Nebius has a ton of revenue coming relative to 2024 & 2025. Everyone sees the path for tremendous rev growth.
If NBIS meets mid range 2026 revenue of 3.2 bn they will have done what what only three comanies have EVER done.
And they will be the only company that can sustain that kind of CAGR.
The others were Moderna, BioNTech, and Groupon.
This is how AI phrased it:
quote:
You are asking about a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 491%.
To be clear on the math: growing from $91.5M to $3.2B in two years (2024 to 2026) is a 35x increase in revenue. Sustaining that speed from a meaningful base (nearly $100M) is statistically impossible for almost any "normal" business.
In the last 25 years (2000–2025), only three major public companies have clearly exceeded or matched this trajectory. All of them required a global "black swan" event (like a pandemic) or a viral consumer frenzy to achieve it.
Not that you haven't been knowing all of this for a long time
This post was edited on 2/12/26 at 8:26 pm
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