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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 6/20/25 at 7:23 am to beaverfever
Posted on 6/20/25 at 7:23 am to beaverfever
My opinion is proliferation of stable coins = more liquidity in the market = higher prices.
USDT has been the de facto federal reserve for bitcoin, printing coins with questionable backing and buying BTC with it to justify printing more coins.
So, more stable coins can certainly result in higher prices. But I think bill establishes some expectations of audits for reserves. So, unless USDT can comply, it may not be able to be listed on U.S. exchanges.
USDT has been the de facto federal reserve for bitcoin, printing coins with questionable backing and buying BTC with it to justify printing more coins.
So, more stable coins can certainly result in higher prices. But I think bill establishes some expectations of audits for reserves. So, unless USDT can comply, it may not be able to be listed on U.S. exchanges.
1
Posted on 6/20/25 at 7:57 am to Hateradedrink
Good points. I agree.
Discussing it further, in the absolute worst case apocalyptic horror movie scenario, Tether (USDT) collapses, exchange liquidity collapses resulting in halted trading on exchanges. Bankruptcies and massive selloffs of all crypto ensue as trust in all crypto degrades.
However, a much more realistic view is if Tether can't meet new Genius Act requirements, it either loses US exchange market share to other stable coins, ie USDC, or it can get with the program if it wants to continue business in the US.
In my opinion, the Genius Act is only a threat to Tether's market share in the US, and not much of a threat to it's viability as a stable coin in the rest of the world. There is no threat to Bitcoin and other non stable coin crypto in my opinion.
If Tether is unable to pass audits imposed by the Genius Act, perhaps this is a good for Tether in the long run, by making them transition to compliant business practices. In the short term they lose market share.
Discussing it further, in the absolute worst case apocalyptic horror movie scenario, Tether (USDT) collapses, exchange liquidity collapses resulting in halted trading on exchanges. Bankruptcies and massive selloffs of all crypto ensue as trust in all crypto degrades.
However, a much more realistic view is if Tether can't meet new Genius Act requirements, it either loses US exchange market share to other stable coins, ie USDC, or it can get with the program if it wants to continue business in the US.
In my opinion, the Genius Act is only a threat to Tether's market share in the US, and not much of a threat to it's viability as a stable coin in the rest of the world. There is no threat to Bitcoin and other non stable coin crypto in my opinion.
If Tether is unable to pass audits imposed by the Genius Act, perhaps this is a good for Tether in the long run, by making them transition to compliant business practices. In the short term they lose market share.
This post was edited on 6/20/25 at 8:15 am
Posted on 6/20/25 at 8:33 am to 98eagle
That’s my opinion as well and part of the appeal to crypto. It’s a worldwide market.
US based stable coins will fill the Tether void while tether still does what it does internationally
US based stable coins will fill the Tether void while tether still does what it does internationally
Posted on 6/20/25 at 1:23 pm to Hateradedrink
I can’t tell if every time we hit this 103k area we build support or wear it down.
This post was edited on 6/20/25 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 6/20/25 at 1:29 pm to beaverfever
I think we’re in a downtrend at the moment. I’m a little bearish in the short term. Feels like we’re gonna do a slow downward chop through June and into July until we start heading back up to peak on October.
Posted on 6/20/25 at 1:44 pm to Hateradedrink
You think we see 90k or so?
Posted on 6/20/25 at 1:48 pm to beaverfever
I don’t think we go far below 97k, if we do then it won’t be for very long.
If I’m wrong, then I’m going to start getting concerned
If I’m wrong, then I’m going to start getting concerned
Posted on 6/20/25 at 2:20 pm to Hateradedrink
Oh ok. I don’t either. I just wasn’t sure how far you were thinking by downtrend and how you thought of the 100k barrier.
Posted on 6/20/25 at 2:59 pm to beaverfever
The 50day sma is the line in the sand
Posted on 6/20/25 at 6:21 pm to Hateradedrink
ETF buys are over $2B in the last two weeks with the price grinding a bit lower. Waiting to see what today looked like but if we get those inflows for another couple weeks we’re going to be good to go. Metaplanet will be executing huge purchases over the next few weeks as well. Unless macro really sucks we’re going up fairly soon.
Posted on 6/20/25 at 6:31 pm to beaverfever
It’s just normal imo. We’re in the calm before the storm. Alts have been in a bit of a “bear” since January.
The only reason btc has been so resilient is it’s become arbitrage with the dollar, and the dollar has shite itself.
The only reason btc has been so resilient is it’s become arbitrage with the dollar, and the dollar has shite itself.
Posted on 6/20/25 at 9:32 pm to Hateradedrink
I just read a really interesting write up on X about how the massive amount of people selling covered calls on IBIT/MSTR or buying MSTY etc were creating a ticking time bomb of volatility.
Something definitely feels artificial about the compression of the vol recently. I’ve noticed IBIT open interest has exploded which is presumably covered call sellers.
This stuff can go on for a bit but we’re going to violently find equilibrium before long.
Something definitely feels artificial about the compression of the vol recently. I’ve noticed IBIT open interest has exploded which is presumably covered call sellers.
This stuff can go on for a bit but we’re going to violently find equilibrium before long.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 11:37 am to beaverfever
94-97k is the range I’m watching here.
I am expecting a sweep down to 94k but hope we don’t last too long there.
I am expecting a sweep down to 94k but hope we don’t last too long there.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 11:42 am to Hateradedrink
I bought a boat load of Eth last night thinking a caught a deal. Down another 10% now lol Anybody think I should jump back into a stable and see where the market lands. Feels the the stock market is gonna drag it down hard tomorrow. Maybe not, idk
Posted on 6/22/25 at 1:29 pm to Chorizo chang
If this decent pullback holds, worsens or recovers into tomorrow morning (it doesn't really matter to me), I will continue to implement my "buying BITX incrementally into a falling knife with leverage" strategy within our Roth, HSA and traditional IRA accounts. Then I will look to see with zero concern whether Bitcoin continues to fall or recovers to determine my next trades (incrementally buy more BITX or sell to incremental cash profits). I only trade 5% to 10% of my available trading cash at a time depending on the amplitude of the pullback, so tomorrow's trade is looking like a 10% buy at this point. I split all of my volatility trading cash profits into three stacks (more BITO shares, more trading cash and more "sleep well at night"/spending cash). I also change BITO dividends to either reinvest or take in cash to manage my stack allocations.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 5:13 pm to 98eagle
I bet we get a new ATH this week. Just a gut feeling.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 6:13 pm to beaverfever
WW3 already over?
Posted on 6/22/25 at 6:14 pm to beaverfever
Nothing shocks me with Bitcoin. That would be great if we did see an ATH this week. I could close out my remaining open trades, pocket some really nice gains and wait for the next pullback. Just based on 4 year cycles (not sure how much they apply any longer) we should see the top of this cycle no later than the end of October.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 6:26 pm to TigerTatorTots
All price dumps are fake these days, particularly ones based on geopolitical news. Thats what happens when you perpetually have too much money looking for a home. That’s why we bitcoin, no?
Posted on 6/22/25 at 8:03 pm to beaverfever
Exactly. I don't even care what the macro news and technical charts are indicating. It's all head fakes to me. I just react to Bitcoin's current price with incremental volatility trades within our retirement accounts. Years ago I used to trade like all of my available trading cash on a pullback and would be fully invested. Big mistake especially on long term sideways price action and downtrends. Incremental trading on pullbacks has been way better for me. I still hold actual Bitcoin and BITO, but I actively volatility trade with my trading cash.
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