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Posted on 2/9/26 at 7:48 am to reds on reds on reds
quote:
Yeah I don’t see a scenario in which EPA approval doesn’t push this close to $5
I was thinking of this question from a different angle.
This stock is priced over 2 bucks/share based on potential, since the company has no product and no customers.. The risk is real that it could go down to zero, if they don't get EPA approval and the company goes bankrupt.
If HGRAF gets EPA approval, the risk of going to zero is reduced significantly, since they can now produce and sell the product. The risks are reduced to execution, whether they can produce customers, and whether they become a target for a buyout.
I think the biggest risk going forward is whether those customers that need 1000's of tons of graphene ever materialize. It could turn out that Hydrograph graphene is only necessary in specialized applications that don't need much volume.
I think the EPA approval makes the new floor $2.50, not $0.00, and essentially derisks the investments up to this point. The most likely worst case scenario would be that HGRAF becomes a niche product and stays in single digits in perpetuity, while the best case is that it goes to $1000/shr in 2-3 years.
Again, that's what I see, but I could, and likely am wrong...
This post was edited on 2/9/26 at 7:50 am
Posted on 2/9/26 at 8:08 am to Jax-Tiger
quote:
I think the EPA approval makes the new floor $2.50
Solid and I agree, but the initial euphoria of such an announcement will make it run, and subsequent near time frame announcements may mean we don't know what a new floor is.
quote:
best case is that it goes to $1000/shr in 2-3 years.
Iron Pyrite... I can't align with that big of a share price in that sort of a time frame for HYGRAF. You KNOW I want to be wrong here.
Posted on 2/9/26 at 8:14 am to Dock Holiday
quote:
I can't align with that big of a share price in that sort of a time frame for HYGRAF. You KNOW I want to be wrong here.
I dont think you're wrong. I still think the most likely outcome is an acquisition once this company gets a few customers.
How happy/unhappy would you be if someone buys HGRAF for $15/share later this year?
Posted on 2/9/26 at 8:26 am to Jax-Tiger
Happy but also a little disappointed, for me. I'd make a lot of money, but not life-changing money. And if it's worth $15/share to somebody, that means it would then be in a position to make a lot more than that, too (if the current team would see it through and execute).
But I'll never be mad at a six-figure windfall...
But I'll never be mad at a six-figure windfall...
Posted on 2/9/26 at 8:58 am to NaturalBeam
quote:
But I'll never be mad at a six-figure windfall...
That's true, but it's that initial multiple that is most important, because the low price allows you to buy more shares and increase your multiplier. That increase from $1 to $15 is a lot more important than the increase from $15 to $30, in the sense that you have a 15 bagger in the first scenario, and a 2 bagger in the second. There are a lot more investments out there that will give you a 100% profit than will give you a 1500% profit.
Posted on 2/9/26 at 10:03 am to Jax-Tiger
Interesting thought that I have not seen discussed is that graphene may be required at some point in concrete for construction projects because it would lower costs and claims for weather events.
Not that it will happen overnight, but hopefully,
Not that it will happen overnight, but hopefully,
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