re: CFB bets week 5

Posted by TigerTatorTots

The Safeshore

Member since Jul 2009

82143 posts

Posted on 9/28/11 at 8:38 pm to colorchangintiger

quote:
Was the LSU game taken off of anybody else's sports book? It's gone from BetUS as of a few minutes ago.

Nope

Kentucky at LSU
Sat 10/1 189 Kentucky +30½ -110 +4500 o45 -110
12:20PM 190 LSU -30½ -110 -11000 u45 -110

Posted by LSUtoOmaha

Nashville

Member since Apr 2004

26726 posts

Posted on 9/28/11 at 8:39 pm to aVatiger

I hope so. I'll also be the first to come on here and call myself out for being a dumbass.....or to brag.

Posted by death valley driver

CHOPPA CITY

Member since Jul 2004

11681 posts

Posted on 9/28/11 at 8:40 pm to TigerTatorTots

quote:
The betting public is correct when moving the total in GEORGIA TECH games 62.1% of the time since 1992. (77-47)

quote:
The betting public is correct when moving the total in GEORGIA TECH games 87.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-3)

went from 62.5 to 63 on sportbook. good luck brothers

Posted by TigerTatorTots

The Safeshore

Member since Jul 2009

82143 posts

Posted on 9/28/11 at 8:43 pm to death valley driver

Wouldn't that be a good thing?

ETA: NVM, that is saying the OVER is the correct play.

This post was edited on 9/28/11 at 8:44 pm

Posted by LSUtoOmaha

Nashville

Member since Apr 2004

26726 posts

Posted on 9/28/11 at 8:45 pm to TigerTatorTots

This is all a play on NC State.

This post was edited on 9/28/11 at 8:46 pm

Posted by aVatiger

Water

Member since Jan 2006

27967 posts

Posted on 9/28/11 at 9:24 pm to death valley driver

quote:
I hope so. I'll also be the first to come on here and call myself out for being a dumbass.....or to brag.

the past two weeks i am 21-1 on college

that being said i could go 0-11 this week

quote:
The betting public is correct when moving the total in GEORGIA TECH games 62.1% of the time since 1992. (77-47)

quote:
The betting public is correct when moving the total in GEORGIA TECH games 87.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-3)

all of the above doesn't have anything to do with with this game

the public likes GT to cover, so do i

the public likes the over.. barely, i don't

mindfrick

ETA- you think any of the above in a mindfrick.. try clicking on the rant for the first time since this afternoon.. wow

This post was edited on 9/28/11 at 9:36 pm

Posted by holt11

Member since Aug 2011

282 posts

Posted on 9/28/11 at 10:51 pm to aVatiger

Locked and Loaded

Cincy-13.5
GT-9.5
Clem+7

Liked, but laid off WF to avoid so many road fav's

Posted by THEphenom

Baton rouge

Member since Jun 2006

640 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 12:13 am to holt11

Does Auburn have a reasonable shot to beat South Carolina?

Posted by WavinWilly

Wavin Away in Sharlo

Member since Oct 2010

9017 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 7:08 am to THEphenom

Their defense is way too bad.

ETA: I would say Vandy has a better defense than Auburn. Vandy's offense is just poopoo comparatively.

This post was edited on 9/29/11 at 7:09 am

Posted by fastedLSU

Member since Sep 2007

4477 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 7:45 am to WavinWilly

Week 5. Will update record this afternoon. Going to be an interesting week. GT opens at 6, shoots to 12 then settles at 10. Phil Steeles computer models have NCST winning SU.

Pitt +3 (-120) USF hasn't covered on Thursday since 2000
GT -8
Duke +3.5
Utah -7 (-120)
Clemson + 7
Auburn + 11.5
Texas -9.5
Alabama -3.5
UCLA +20.5
Auburn / S.C Over 59.5
Clemson / V.T Over 49
Nebraska / Wisconsin Under 56
Alabama / Florida Under 44.5

This post was edited on 9/29/11 at 12:26 pm

Posted by okietiger

Chelsea F.C. Fan

Member since Oct 2005

42275 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 8:11 am to fastedLSU

6-3 on the season. Didn't bet the first 2 weeks.

Week 5 Bets

Bama -3.5 3*
WVU -18.0 .5*
Wisky -10.0 1*
Stanford -21.0 3*
NIU -10.0 3*
TTU -6.5 2*
Baylor -3.5 2*
Mich. -20.5 1*

Posted by fastedLSU

Member since Sep 2007

4477 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 8:12 am to fastedLSU

quote:
quote:
why is the line going up?

my only guess is that people are hedging it in hoping it will drop to 9 or 8.5, which i don't see happening..

but if so.. omg

With the line opening at 6, the movement is pretty standard. After early movers bet this past 7 and then 10 all the way to 12, the masses started to place their bets. Seeing a DD conference dog at home looks good for a lot of players and will make this a bet on NCST 8/10 times based on the line alone.

IMO GT rolls 45+ to 17.

Posted by TigerTatorTots

The Safeshore

Member since Jul 2009

82143 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 8:27 am to fastedLSU

I agree with you

I hope GT rolls, I could have been really dumb and gone outside my norm by betting over my max. I never bet more than 5, GT has my suckered in well over that

Posted by aVatiger

Water

Member since Jan 2006

27967 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 8:45 am to fastedLSU

quote:
Seeing a DD conference dog at home looks good for a lot of players and will make this a bet on NCST 8/10 times based on the line alone.

Yeah, I didn't rule that out.. but it just baffles me that somebody could be dumb enough to take the failpack

Posted by wegotdatwood

Member since Aug 2009

17094 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 9:23 am to aVatiger

Yeah, I think some betters haven't watched NC State this season (thinking they may be a decent teams like in years past). I'm sure some still think R. Wilson in on the team.

Posted by wegotdatwood

Member since Aug 2009

17094 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 9:42 am to wegotdatwood

Also, why do some lines get pulled? Example on sportsbook you can no longer bet the Michigan Minnesota game. The line did go up a point from open, but that's it. It's pulled off on there.

Posted by fastedLSU

Member since Sep 2007

4477 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 9:49 am to wegotdatwood

OPPG(Offensive Points Per Game) vs. DPPG( Defensive PPG)
Northwestern OPPG #94 vs. Illinois DPPG #14= 80 diff
Texas Tech OPPG #4 vs Kansas DPPG #120= 116 diff
Toledo OPPG #83 vs Temple DPPG #2= 81 diff
Kentucky OPPG # 101 vs LSU DPPG #20=81 diff
Kent St OPPG #116 vs Ohio DPPG #39= 77 diff
Ohio OPPG #18 vs Kent St DPPG #97=79 diff
Kansas St OPPG #36 vs Baylor DPPG #113= 77 diff
Marshall OPPG # 107 vs Louisville DPPG # 27= 80 diff
GT OPPG #3 vs NC ST DPPG #110=107 diff
WKU OPPG #115 vs Ark St. DPPG #28= 87 diff
Oregon St OPPG #113 vs Ariz St DPPG # 37=76

Rushing yards per game(RO) vs. Defensive Rushing yards per attempt (RD)
BYU RO # 110 vs Utah St DR # 15= 95 diff
Texas Tech RO #25 vs Kansas DR #120=95 diff
Kansas RO #23 vs Texas Tech DR #103=80 diff
Air Force RO #10 vs Navy DR #99=89 diff
Navy RO #3 vs Air Force DR #88=85 diff
Toledo RO #92 vs Temple DR #7=85 diff
Miami Oh RO #111 vs Cincy DR #10= 101 diff
Kent St RO #113 vs Ohio DR #31=82 diff
Kansas St RO #11 vs Baylor DR #97=86 diff
Marshall RO #95 vs Louisville DR #3=92 diff
Idaho RO #118 vs Virginia DR #42=76 diff
WVU RO #109 vs BG DR #14=95 diff
Tulsa RO #22 vs NT DR #113=91 diff
Wisconsin RO #12 vs Nebraska RD #89=77 diff
Stanford RO #27 vs UCLA RD #110=83 diff

Passing yards per game(PO) vs Defensive Passing yards per attempt(PD)
Texas Tech PO #11 vs Kansas PD #120= 109 diff
Kentucky PO #104 vs LSU PD #16=88 diff
LSU PO #102 vs Kentucky PD #14=88 diff
Ohio St PO #105 vs Michigan St PD #2=103 diff
SMU PO #24 vs TCU PD #108=84 diff
Middle TN PO #16 vs Memphis PD #118=102 diff
Troy PO #15 vs UAB PD #115=100 diff
Southern Miss PO #29 vs Rice PD #107=78 diff
Florida PO #77 vs Alabama PD #1=76 diff
NM St PO #30 vs NM PD #105=75 diff
Ariz St PO #25 vs Oregon St PD #116=91

SOS Differences(Remember these are only FBS games)
Penn St #3 vs Indiana #117=114 diff
Michigan #36 vs Minnesota #111=75 diff
LSU #8 vs Kentucky #112=104 diff
WVU #28 vs Bowling Green #110=82 diff
Iowa St #17 vs Texas #93=76 diff
Oklahoma #18 vs Ball St #95=77 diff
Tulsa #12 vs NT #103=91 diff
UNC #24 vs ECU #118=94 diff
Notre Dame #5 vs Purdue #113=108 diff

Top 5 Scoring Avg games
Texas Am vs Arkansas=#23
Texas Tech vs Kansas=#16
Baylor vs Kansas St=#19
Alabama vs Florida=#15
Nebraska vs Wisconsin #8

Low 5 Scoring Avg games
New Mexico vs New Mexico St=#100
Arkansas St vs WKU=#98
Akron vs Eastern Michigan=#119
Marshall vs Louisville=#99
Memphis vs Middle TN=#89

Top 5 Rushing Avg Games
Nebraska vs Wisconsin=#8
Michigan vs Minnesota=#23
Air Force vs Navy=#7
Baylor vs Kansas St=#13
Alabama vs Florida=#10

Top 5 Passing Games
Bowling Green vs. WVU=#12
Arizona vs USC=#20
Washington St. vs Colorado=#14
Texas AM vs Arkansas=#19
Texas Tech vs Kansas=#31

Top 5 Defensive Scoring avg games
Northwestern vs Illinois=#19
Michigan St vs Ohio St=#11
Alabama vs Florida=#4
Clemson vs VT=#26
South Florida vs Pittsburgh=#24

Posted by fastedLSU

Member since Sep 2007

4477 posts

Posted on 9/29/11 at 10:16 am to fastedLSU

quote:
Also, why do some lines get pulled? Example on sportsbook you can no longer bet the Michigan Minnesota game. The line did go up a point from open, but that's it. It's pulled off on there.

Could be a number of factors. Injuries, suspension pending, etc. Almost always has to do with the status of a key player.