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Message
re: ~~~ESPN Preseason Top 25 Released~~~
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:05 pm to H-Town Tiger
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:05 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:So do you think Washington State is as likely to go 12-0 as SC is? If past performance isn't going to guide your prediction of the future, then why not rank Arkansas State #1? It's not like we have a crystal ball that tells us for sure that they aren't going 13-0.
I'm making a projection based on what I think will happen in 2012, not what did happen in 2011
Not every year is exactly like the one before. But very rarely do predictions of dramatic changes from year to year pan out to be correct. If you take the teams that have finished in the top 10 4 out of the past 5 years, the chances of them finishing in the top 10 again are a hell of a lot better than a team that has not finished in the top 10 once in the past 5 years. It can -- and does -- happen, of course. But the percentages don't justify predicting it.
It's like hitting with 19 in blackjack. You can win doing that, but that does not make it reasonable to predict it will happen in any given instance.
2
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:14 pm to King Joey
quote:
And with the schedule they have this year, I believe it's unlikely they can slip up and still end up #1
I agree they can't slip with their schedule, but that doesn't mean they will slip.
quote:
To finish #1, I believe SC will have to not only finish strong, but start strong as well
To finish #1 they have to win the BCS CG. To get there, they probably have to go undefeated or at least finish with fewer loses than all but the #1 team. They can afford to give up 41 to Az as long as they win. They can't give up 41 every week and expect to win every game, but since they gave 17 or fewer in all 8 games last, I see the 2 Az games as more an anomoly and a young team getting better.
quote:
Why do you insist on ignoring one or the other? The true team is more likely both. The same team can beat a good team and lose badly to a bad team.
I'm not, I'm looking at the big picture and they went 10-2 and finished strong. I'm not going to put too much weight on 1 or 2 games, when those look more like outliers.
quote:
In fact, I'm suggesting that no one should attach any meaning to it at all, because it is nothing other than a badly flawed prediction (specifically, in predicting SC as #1).
its not a badly flawed prediction at all, its just a different opinion than yours. Can USC get to the BCS CG? Yes, they can and if they do they can win it. will they? Who knows, but the preseason poll is just a consensous anyway, not really a prediction. It could just be because LSU does not have an expirienced QB, Bama loses a lot of guys and Oregon plays at USC.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:15 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:But between what teams? Are you saying that SC and Oregon are close to as good as any team in the SEC, therefore there is only a marginal difference between the two conferences? In what way does that bear relevance to the level of competition faced in each conference?
Don't disagree with any of that, but the marginal difference is between teams, since conferences don't play games
Do SC and Oregon play each other 8 or 9 times in conference play? No. They play the other 10 teams in the Pac 12. So the difference between those teams and the teams in the SEC also matters. And that difference is not marginal. South Carolina was signficantly better than 9 teams in the Pac 12. So were Arkansas, Florida, Auburn and Georgia. Mississippi State was better than all those except maybe Utah. And LSU and Alabama were better than all 12 teams in the Pac 12. That means there is a big difference -- not a marginal one -- in navigating a schedule of 8 SEC teams and navigating a schedule of 9 Pac 12 teams.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:20 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:If it's not a prediction, then what is it ranking? Because there is no 2012 season yet.
Who knows, but the preseason poll is just a consensous anyway, not really a prediction
When you are speculating on how things will turn out (like, say, which teams are better than other teams) in a set of events that have not yet occurred, that is a prediction.
It is literally impossible for SC to be better than any other team in the 2012 season right now because there is no such thing. The speculation, by definition, cannot help but be prediction.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:26 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:Again, noting that something is theoretically possible is not a reasonable justification for predicting that it will occur.
Can USC get to the BCS CG? Yes, they can
If your point is that this whole ranking is meaningless, not intended to actually reflect what the writer believes is most likely to happen, but is instead merely a collection of speculations thrown together in the most inflamatory arrangement he could think of to generate discussion and page views, I'm not disagreeing. But that is precisely the situation that warrants (and received) the
response. Putting a team at #1 in something called a "preseason poll" that has little chance of ending up #1 is laughable speculation. If he had put Ole Miss at #1, you probably would have laughed at it, too, even though it is possible that Ole Miss could go undefeated and finish #1. The laughing response is a measure of how unlikely it is believed that the given speculation will actually occur. It has nothing to do with whether it is technically possible. To whit: what do you believe (at this moment) the percentage chance is of SC finishing #1 this season?
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:26 pm to King Joey
quote:
So do you think Washington State is as likely to go 12-0 as SC is? If past performance isn't going to guide your prediction of the future, then why not rank Arkansas State #1? It's not like we have a crystal ball that tells us for sure that they aren't going 13-0.
This is just stupid, sadly you seem to only be able to see things in extremes and the world doesn't work that way. Using the past as a guide is just that a GUIDE. You are treating it like a given truth. A sample of 1 doesn't prove anything. So what that USC lost to ASU last year? You a treating that like its some kind of proof of something other than that they lost. If they played liked that most of last year, then you'd have a point but they didn't and they can and did appear to improve.
You expecting the prediction to be perfect, its not, its meaningless, so a consenous at ESPN thinkgs USC will finish #1, they could, if you think they can't they you don't know anything about football. If you think they won't, that's fine and perfectly valid, but clinging to 2 of 12 games from last year is just dumb.
quote:
But very rarely do predictions of dramatic changes from year to year pan out to be correct.
going from 10-2 #6 to 13-0 is not a dramatic leap. You might think their chances of going 13-0 are not good which is fine, but its certainly possible.
quote:
If you take the teams that have finished in the top 10 4 out of the past 5 years, the chances of them finishing in the top 10 again are a hell of a lot better than a team that has not finished in the top 10 once in the past 5 years
Ironically the only team I can think of that finished in the top 5 for 5 years in a row recently is USC from 2002-2008.
quote:
It's like hitting with 19 in blackjack. You can win doing that, but that does not make it reasonable to predict it will happen in any given instance
This is really has nothing to do with anything we are talking about.
Its been fun owning you guys, I've got work to do,
Joey please go back to the rant, you are proving why we need PW protection on the MSB.
Omaha, its avatars or nothing on ND over 7.5 wins.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:36 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
Omaha, its avatars or nothing on ND over 7.5 wins.
ok fine..
add in a sig quote too and meet me in the middle since no bad bet
and you did not OWN me
Posted on 5/1/12 at 1:45 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
ok fine.. add in a sig quote too and meet me in the middle since no bad bet
This is a dangerous bet. You may not win this one. You didn't factor the refs influence in ND games. Just sayin. FWIW how old of a dude are you???
Posted on 5/1/12 at 2:07 pm to rocket31
#2 
Posted on 5/1/12 at 2:20 pm to dukke v
quote:
This is a dangerous bet. You may not win this one. You didn't factor the refs influence in ND games. Just sayin. FWIW how old of a dude are you???
i'm out of fricks that can be issued
Posted on 5/1/12 at 2:50 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
i'm out of fricks that can be issued
Posted on 5/1/12 at 3:40 pm to dukke v
idgaf
Posted on 5/1/12 at 4:44 pm to dukke v
quote:
I have no prob with this. Barkley is experienced ,METT is not. Plus its not how you start ,ITS how you finish.
Give us a good reason why they should be ranked above us. Other than their QB is more experienced that doesn't cut it to be number one.
This post was edited on 5/1/12 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 5/1/12 at 4:45 pm to King Joey
If Notre Dame wins 8 games against that schedule Brian Kelly should win coach of the year
Posted on 5/1/12 at 4:50 pm to CP3LSU25
quote:
Give us a good reason why they should be ranked above us
I LOVE LSU as the BEST team in the country. This is about what the so-called axperts think. and I see THIS a a reason they will not be #1 preseason. And kind of glad about it as well. IF LSU loses a game I would be SHOCKED.FACT.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 4:56 pm to rocket31
quote:
1. USC
2. LSU
37 pages
quote:
18. Clemson
Thought they would be higher
Posted on 5/1/12 at 5:04 pm to McKeezy
quote:
Thought they would be higher
well they did give up 70 points
Posted on 5/1/12 at 6:26 pm to CP3LSU25
quote:
I have no prob with this. Barkley is experienced ,METT is not. Plus its not how you start ,ITS how you finish. Give us a good reason why they should be ranked above us. Other than their QB is more experienced that doesn't cut it to be number one.
They should not be ranked ahead of LSU. No worries though - Oregon is going to take care of business.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 6:38 pm to bisonduck
quote:
They should not be ranked ahead of LSU.
YES they should. But ok HOMER.
quote:
No worries though - Oregon is going to take care of business.
OK AGAIN. They are a DECENT team. Not on the LSU/USC/BAMA level. Sorry its true.
Posted on 5/1/12 at 6:40 pm to dukke v
quote:
LSU/USC/BAMA
Bama won't be anywhere near as good as USC or LSU
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