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re: Moneyball
Posted on 9/15/11 at 9:18 am to Jcorye1
Posted on 9/15/11 at 9:18 am to Jcorye1
IMO There are a few simple strategies to putting together a winning baseball team, then it takes a lot of hard work to excute them.
1) Drafting and scouting must be a main focus. With baseball you can get great young players and get them on the cheap for several years of major league service.
2) Player development, no one talks about this for some strange reason. Who's coaching all these top prospects? They aren't learning this stuff on their own, you need to have quality coaches top to bottom in your minor league system.
3) Veteran presence in the clubhouse, you need a few vets who can lead and keep the clubhouse in order.
4) Luck, luck and more luck.
1) Drafting and scouting must be a main focus. With baseball you can get great young players and get them on the cheap for several years of major league service.
2) Player development, no one talks about this for some strange reason. Who's coaching all these top prospects? They aren't learning this stuff on their own, you need to have quality coaches top to bottom in your minor league system.
3) Veteran presence in the clubhouse, you need a few vets who can lead and keep the clubhouse in order.
4) Luck, luck and more luck.
2
Posted on 9/15/11 at 9:28 am to Jcorye1
quote:
Fwiw, athletes themselves perpetuate this. Elite teams don't go into the season saying, "Guys, we're going to have a great year this year, we're shooting for the playoffs." No, they always say they are going for the championship, be it WS, SB, or whatever you want.
It would be awesome if that's what we were talking about.
You have to take things incrementally. You don't just close training camp and head to the Super Bowl. You go through your talent evaluation during preseason, qualify for the playoffs in the regular season, and then advance to the big game.
You can't win a championship if you can't get into the tournament.
Now the people who judge teams, players, and coaches solely or primarily on post success really miss the point. You can be a great player, coach, or team and have some bad luck, bad draws, etc get in the way of a championship.
As H-Town mentioned, do the 2007 Pats suck because they didn't win a championship? Is Tom Brady less of a quarterback because his team hasn't won a playoff game since 2007?
This post was edited on 9/15/11 at 9:49 am
Posted on 9/15/11 at 9:37 am to Sophandros
This is a really solid thread...
Posted on 9/15/11 at 10:06 am to Sophandros
quote:
It would be awesome if that's what we were talking about.
You asked why people do this, and I responded that the idea usually starts with ex-athlete talking heads saying that is the only goal of the season. Seems like exactly what we were talking about. I wasn't endorsing it, I was attempting to explain where it comes from
. I'm wayyyy to advance stats to put Superbowls above all else, though I do think it helps individual players a little bit.Posted on 9/15/11 at 10:06 am to barry
quote:
1) Drafting and scouting must be a main focus. With baseball you can get great young players and get them on the cheap for several years of major league service.
This might be the most important thing out there. Even the big market teams are drafting well now, and not just throwing away picks.
Posted on 9/15/11 at 10:19 am to Jcorye1
The Yankees, Red Sox, etc have drafted well for years.
They take advantage of the top talents that drop to the bottom of the first round due to signability concerns/money reasons and snag them up.
This is part of the reason there's been all the talk of hard slotting.
The rich get richer with their ability to overpay for top, passed up talent.
They take advantage of the top talents that drop to the bottom of the first round due to signability concerns/money reasons and snag them up.
This is part of the reason there's been all the talk of hard slotting.
The rich get richer with their ability to overpay for top, passed up talent.
Posted on 9/15/11 at 10:20 am to bddwolfpack
quote:
They take advantage of the top talents that drop to the bottom of the first round due to signability concerns/money reasons and snag them up.
This is part of the reason there's been all the talk of hard slotting.
I'm a huge proponent for this and international players being included in the draft. With the current system, MLB is supporting the handlers in these countries and they dick the kids.
Posted on 9/15/11 at 10:27 am to Jcorye1
quote:
the idea usually starts with ex-athlete talking heads saying that is the only goal of the season
its not just that is the goal, of course its the goal, the trouble is they often are the first to use the Rings trump all argument and buy into the whole idea that winning the title bestows special powers on certain players, especially QB's. Aaron Rogers in not a better QB now than last year at this time because he won.
Posted on 9/15/11 at 11:18 am to LSUtigersarefun
About 85% of the people who talk about Moneyball have no idea what it even "actually" is.
Sabermetrics were the vehicle, but that isn't actually what the "moneyball" refers to. It's just the way they found to make their plan work. Moneyball is about the market inefficiencies... finding players who have value that are overlooked and therefore cheap. SABR is just the method they used for unearthing that value.
But in baseball, as it has always been, championships follow the $$$.
I would say the Rays are the only organization practicing any sort of "Moneyball" practices nowadays. The Sox, Yanks, etc. have caught up to the advanced stats movement and now those players get fat contracts, but the Rays are paying and playing guys like Matt Joyce, Sam Fuld and the like, who are platoon guys at best, and still doing it effectively.
Sabermetrics were the vehicle, but that isn't actually what the "moneyball" refers to. It's just the way they found to make their plan work. Moneyball is about the market inefficiencies... finding players who have value that are overlooked and therefore cheap. SABR is just the method they used for unearthing that value.
But in baseball, as it has always been, championships follow the $$$.
I would say the Rays are the only organization practicing any sort of "Moneyball" practices nowadays. The Sox, Yanks, etc. have caught up to the advanced stats movement and now those players get fat contracts, but the Rays are paying and playing guys like Matt Joyce, Sam Fuld and the like, who are platoon guys at best, and still doing it effectively.
This post was edited on 9/15/11 at 11:19 am
Posted on 9/15/11 at 11:25 am to Jcorye1
quote:
which looks kinda bad because the Marlins won it with cheap arse payrolls.
Marlins had the 5th highest payroll in baseball in 1997...
But in 2003 they were 20th, which is low, but they just had a fortunate tilt of young talent and guys right before pay days... Dontrelle, Miggy, Burnett, Beckett, Pierre, Pavano, Brad Penny, Derrek Lee, Mike Lowell.
Posted on 9/15/11 at 11:27 am to Jcorye1
quote:
You'd think with all the intelligence they have in the front office, somebody would have understood the Trop was a terrible, terrible financial decision. Then again, when push comes to shove, contracts aren't exactly iron clad
The decision was made before any of the new guys got in there. They were bound to that junker because of Vince Naimoli.
Posted on 9/15/11 at 11:31 am to Sophandros
quote:
People seem to obsess over a tiny sample of games that also happen to suffer from a form of selection bias, rather than examining a player or team's entire body of work.
Sports fans, by and large, are results oriented, not process oriented. Thus they miss out on a great deal of things.
Posted on 9/15/11 at 11:32 am to barry
quote:
1) Drafting and scouting must be a main focus. With baseball you can get great young players and get them on the cheap for several years of major league service.
2) Player development, no one talks about this for some strange reason. Who's coaching all these top prospects? They aren't learning this stuff on their own, you need to have quality coaches top to bottom in your minor league system.
That's pretty much the top two tenets of what Sternberg/Friedman have done in Tampa.
This post was edited on 9/15/11 at 11:33 am
Posted on 9/15/11 at 11:40 am to Jcorye1
quote:
Ehhhhhhhhhh. It's not so much about the moneyball, as it was the Sabermetric evolution of the entire sport. The Red Sox and Yankees both personify this approach, though as of late it doesn't look too well . On-Base Percentage was always, ALWAYS overlooked in the past, and GMs finally started giving it credence around the time Billy Beane was Moneyballin it up. The problem with the actual book; however, is the players he really wanted (Youkillis, ect.) still wanted a lot of money. That pudgy kid who was the trademark of the book never really amounted to anything. He got really, really lucky on a couple of pitchers and looked pretty smart grabbing Nick Swisher.
Actually, I would still call it "Moneyball", but it is definitely modified Moneyball. The key ingredient of course was money (once the league got wind of what was undervalued), which is why the Sox and Yanks are so damn good. Beane's strategy was really good for a team that was broke. His new strategy should be to go to the Cubs or to find a way to make Oakland a larger franchise. Move? New stadium?
Looking forward to the movie, but it will probably be a Hollywood-esque. However, I am still very excited to see it. I heard Paul Depodesta is not allowing them to use his name, and they are using that fat actor, Jonah Hill, I think, to portray him.
Posted on 9/22/11 at 10:57 pm to LSUtigersarefun
#Moneyball spoiler alert: The Oakland A's don't win the championship and sabermetrics is revealed to only work in Tampa Bay.
Posted on 9/22/11 at 10:58 pm to shuke33
quote:
sabermetrics is revealed to only work in Tampa Bay.
Posted on 9/23/11 at 1:19 am to shuke33
quote:
#Moneyball spoiler alert: The Oakland A's don't win the championship and sabermetrics is revealed to only work in Tampa Bay.
My sarcasm meter is broken.
Posted on 9/23/11 at 1:31 am to shuke33
Nice!
Posted on 9/23/11 at 6:31 am to LSUtigersarefun
How is this an original idea from Hollywood?
Posted on 9/23/11 at 7:36 am to josh336
I feel a resurgence in the thread. This is an original idea by Hollywood, because I have never seen a sports movie about a gm before, besides it is a better that watching hollywood destroy a classic with a remake.
This is genius marketing, wives want to see Brad Pitt, husbands want to see a nerdy sports movie.
This is genius marketing, wives want to see Brad Pitt, husbands want to see a nerdy sports movie.
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