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re: Official NFL Week 1 Bet Thread

Posted on 9/6/14 at 2:57 am to
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/6/14 at 2:57 am to
Adding...

Sep 07 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[474] BAL RAVENS -1-115

173 / 150

Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12076 posts
Posted on 9/6/14 at 7:42 am to
Here are some really good write ups from one of the guys I respect a lot.

Week 1 NFL
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/6/14 at 12:28 pm to
quote:

JG77056



Do you know where he gets his info from?

Dallas has been pretty decent as home dogs in the past. I kind of like them getting 5 points.
This post was edited on 9/6/14 at 12:29 pm
Posted by RandySavage
9 Time Natty Winner
Member since May 2012
35227 posts
Posted on 9/6/14 at 9:48 pm to
Thinking about taking the Saints at -3, should I pull the trigger?
Posted by OutofTownAlumni
Member since Nov 2013
3036 posts
Posted on 9/6/14 at 9:50 pm to
I did for a bunch.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16907 posts
Posted on 9/6/14 at 10:05 pm to
You and every other Tom, Dick, and Harry out there. Don't get me wrong, I love the Saints this week, but I can't do it, just for the fact that everybody is on them.
Posted by TotallyTigers
Champagnionship
Member since Nov 2004
2891 posts
Posted on 9/6/14 at 11:45 pm to
Saints ML (-133)
Baltimore pk (-125)
Bears -6.5 (-115)
Rams -3 (-115)
Bucs -2.5 (-110)
Lions -6.5 (-110)
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 12:33 am to
quote:

Thinking about taking the Saints at -3, should I pull the trigger?


I wouldn't.

From a previous post of mine:

quote:

Line opened with New Orleans +1.5....4.5 point swing.

Under Payton, on the road, the Saints have covered only 5 out of 37 games (13.5%).

Not to mention, the Saints had to win on the last play of the game AT HOME last year by deflecting a pass in the end zone. Atlanta is equal if not better than they were last year. (and healthier).

With Atl +3, you're getting a home dog, 4.5 points of value, and you have betting history heavily in your favor.


I'll be on Atl +3 (or higher). If I can get them +3.5, I'll consider trying to middle the three if it drops, but otherwise, it's Atlanta or nothing for me.

ETA: Bet numbers, not teams.
This post was edited on 9/7/14 at 12:38 am
Posted by biglil3
West Monroe
Member since Jan 2010
2049 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 1:36 am to
I got ATL +3
Tenn+3
TB -2.5
Posted by engvol
england
Member since Sep 2009
5318 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 5:31 am to
I'm doing a 'let it ride'through out the season
$10 up to $70 so far from first two weeks of CFB

Next play is Pats -4
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12076 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 5:40 am to
Supercontest plays for week 1:

Eagles -10.5
Bears -7
Chiefs -3.5
Lions -5.5
Broncos -7.5
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 6:18 am to
Have you seen the write ups on the most popular super contest plays yet? I remember last year you could see them by percentage. Can't find it.
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12076 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 6:43 am to
Week 1 Supercontest Plays

The breakdown of how many were picked is at the bottom.

The guy I linked before, ACE-ACE is on there. I believe he won it a few years ago. FEZZIK is the only 2 time winner. I believe SANTINO is an old mn I know that won it back in the day but don;t quote me on that.

Just remember you're allowed 2 entries per person so some of these guys might put their name on their backup entry and create a secret name for their real picks.
This post was edited on 9/7/14 at 6:49 am
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12076 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 6:52 am to
Least popular plays are Carolina and Oakland. Tampa Bay is the most popular by a long shot with 518 plays, next highest is Pittsburg with 342.
This post was edited on 9/7/14 at 6:53 am
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:30 am to
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12076 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:53 am to
Also, last year in interconference matchups the over hit 77% of the time, 47-14-1.

So I'll be playing the over in Chicago/Buff, Hou/Wash, and Philly/Jax

This post was edited on 9/7/14 at 8:24 am
Posted by Tiger1242
Member since Jul 2011
33128 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 8:13 am to
I don't see how the 49ers don't cover 4 pts today, the Cowboys are terrible
Posted by aVatiger
Water
Member since Jan 2006
27967 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 8:25 am to
12c/1et

Saint ML

'skins +4
Posted by aVatiger
Water
Member since Jan 2006
27967 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 8:26 am to
I think it is going to be a real beat down
Posted by OutofTownAlumni
Member since Nov 2013
3036 posts
Posted on 9/7/14 at 8:30 am to
But what is the saints under Payton in first week games?
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