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Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:32 am to Tiger1242
Okay I'm about to lock in a few plays, I need someone to tell me why these are BAD bets if you can
Marshall -20.5 vs Ohio (a team who lost to Kentucky by 17)
UGA -6 @ South Carolina (even at USC Georgia should dominate right?)
Oklahoma - 20.5 vs. Tenn (Seems obvious to me)
I'm nervous because that is a lot of points to lay
Marshall -20.5 vs Ohio (a team who lost to Kentucky by 17)
UGA -6 @ South Carolina (even at USC Georgia should dominate right?)
Oklahoma - 20.5 vs. Tenn (Seems obvious to me)
I'm nervous because that is a lot of points to lay
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:34 am to Tiger1242
i really think tennessee will keep it close...i know it's tennessee but i just think they are improved this year
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:36 am to Tiger1242
I'm off the Georgia bandwagon, I was very interested when it was less than 3. But now I'm looking at that 6.5 and thinking it's too much.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:37 am to Tiger1242
quote:
Marshall -20.5 vs Ohio (a team who lost to Kentucky by 17)
I like it. Ohio will have trouble keeping up with Cato.
quote:
UGA -6 @ South Carolina (even at USC Georgia should dominate right?)
I think this game gets weird. I expect a FG game, would lean towards the home dog (and will play it if it gets to 7).
quote:
Oklahoma - 20.5 vs. Tenn (Seems obvious to me)
Agreed, I don't see how anyone can feel good about taking UT here. Stoops can derp home games tho so I wouldn't risk multiple units.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:56 am to redfieldk717
quote:
i really think tennessee will keep it close...i know it's tennessee but i just think they are improved this year
I remember this thread one year ago how everyone was saying the same thing about them vs. Oregon
Posted on 9/10/14 at 10:59 am to goldennugget
not sure i really like any spread this week - playing these high spread games are just not my style
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 11:29 am
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:07 am to goldennugget
quote:
I remember this thread one year ago how everyone was saying the same thing about them vs. Oregon
i know...it's insanity for me to think tennessee will cover but i put a unit on it already
stoops has been running that yapper...i'm hoping karma will kick him in the arse on saturday
Posted on 9/10/14 at 11:10 am to Billy Mays
So I locked in Marshall -20.5 and OU -20 (bought a 1/2 pt)
Staying off UGA for now, I'm feeling pretty confident about the two above me.
Also looks like the OU spread has gone up to -21, at least on topbet
Staying off UGA for now, I'm feeling pretty confident about the two above me.
Also looks like the OU spread has gone up to -21, at least on topbet
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:14 pm to Tiger1242
Gotta love Week 3, all about perception. Most of these teams have played 2 games, some have played only 1 and the majority of people have made up their minds on what each teams identities are already, it just human nature. In just a matter of two short weeks South Carolina has gone from a 3 point favorite at home to almost a touchdown underdog. Granted South Carolina has looked like hot garbage, Georgia has played 1 game against a Clemson team that lost 13 starters and are now viewed as world beaters because ESPN has shown Todd Gurley running for a touchdown eleventy million times on highlight reels. Just some food for thought, I know most of the regulars on here are pretty bright guys, there are also tons of guys who come on here looking for solid information.
With that being said I feel pretty strongly about some of the weeknight games.
Houston +18.5- I stated my case for this game earlier in the week and have had it locked in for max bet since Monday. BYU won't be able to generate a ton of pressure on UH's QB, and the Cougars should put up some points.
Toledo +11- I think Toledo's defense is good enough to keep this one tight throughout.
North Texas -3.5 - I think La Tech is coming off of one of the most impressive wins of last week, will be interesting to see how they can follow up that performance. I think North Texas has a huge advantage on the line of scrimmage, which is enough in itself for me to lay the 3.5 at home.
With that being said I feel pretty strongly about some of the weeknight games.
Houston +18.5- I stated my case for this game earlier in the week and have had it locked in for max bet since Monday. BYU won't be able to generate a ton of pressure on UH's QB, and the Cougars should put up some points.
Toledo +11- I think Toledo's defense is good enough to keep this one tight throughout.
North Texas -3.5 - I think La Tech is coming off of one of the most impressive wins of last week, will be interesting to see how they can follow up that performance. I think North Texas has a huge advantage on the line of scrimmage, which is enough in itself for me to lay the 3.5 at home.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:23 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
In just a matter of two short weeks South Carolina has gone from a 3 point favorite at home
Dude they were like a 10-11 point favorite against Texas A&M.
Even more drastic to your point though.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:38 pm to PurpleAndGold86
He's talking about the Georgia game. USCe was laying 3 before the season.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:38 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Stoops can derp home games tho so I wouldn't risk multiple units.
what? dude is like 87-5 at home
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:39 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Think he means they were a 3 point favorite over uga before the first games kicked off
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:47 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
In just a matter of two short weeks South Carolina has gone from a 3 point favorite at home to almost a touchdown underdog. Granted South Carolina has looked like hot garbage, Georgia has played 1 game against a Clemson team that lost 13 starters and are now viewed as world beaters because ESPN has shown Todd Gurley running for a touchdown eleventy million times on highlight reels.
Eh, I haven't really been watching ESPN, but I don't need them to tell me how good Gurley is, I saw him with my own eyes vs LSU last year. If he didn't get hurt he probably would have rushed for 200 yds in that game. Also USC's pass defense has looked especially bad. I really like UGA in this game, but yes 6 is a lot of points which is why I'm hesitant
ETA:
quote:
I know most of the regulars on here are pretty bright guys, there are also tons of guys who come on here looking for solid information
I dk if this was a knock against me or not, but I've never claimed to be an expert. Hell I generally put my picks on here so smarter people than me can scrutinize them.
This post was edited on 9/10/14 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:48 pm to josh336
Have a general question for anyone to answer. What are yall seeing with this lsu ulm line that is making everyone bet LSU. Figure there must be something im missing.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:51 pm to josh336
I think it's a combination of last weeks score, and the assumption that we will play the starters longer and possibly open up the play book some to prepare for Miss st.
I personally never bet on LSU when they are 20+ favorites though, we usually don't run it up
I personally never bet on LSU when they are 20+ favorites though, we usually don't run it up
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:53 pm to Tiger1242
Apart from the plays I have already locked in I am also looking at these right now:
Colorado +16
Louisiana Tech +4
East Carolina +11
Central Michigan +7
Wyoming +44
Arizona -15.5
Buffalo +35
Buffalo is interesting me a lot. Baylor was terrible ATS on the road last year and I made money fading them when the public was all over them on the road. Buffalo is a pretty terrible team, only beating Duquense who recently rebooted their program by 10 and losing to Army, but even if Baylor scores like we expect them to I think Buffalo can put up a few points as well.
Colorado +16
Louisiana Tech +4
East Carolina +11
Central Michigan +7
Wyoming +44
Arizona -15.5
Buffalo +35
Buffalo is interesting me a lot. Baylor was terrible ATS on the road last year and I made money fading them when the public was all over them on the road. Buffalo is a pretty terrible team, only beating Duquense who recently rebooted their program by 10 and losing to Army, but even if Baylor scores like we expect them to I think Buffalo can put up a few points as well.
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:54 pm to Tiger1242
I just think this year is different. Because our starting talent is so young they need reps. Its not like Odell and Jarvis where they dont need to work on timing and polishing routes as much
Posted on 9/10/14 at 12:54 pm to goldennugget
Just locked in buff +35
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